Like thousands of kids who grew up as Mets fans in the late ’60s, early ’70s, I wanted to be Tom Seaver, the closest thing to pitching perfection as I ever saw or will ever see. I got as far as being the number one pitcher for my small NY college baseball team in 1977 (the year Tom was traded) and ‘78. Had that been 30 years into the future, I’d have done everything humanly possible (except for taking performance enhancing drugs) to get to the show because being a major league starting pitcher has to be the greatest job in the world. In what other profession (other than perhaps backup quarterback in the NFL) can so many mediocrities make so much money.
That’s what I thought when the news came down earlier this week from the Winter Meetings that the Brewers had signed Randy Wolf for three years at $30 million (with a fourth-year option), the Cardinals had signed Brad Penny for a year at $7.5 million and that fourth-starter types Joel Pineiro, Jason Marquis and Doug Davis were looking at multi-year deals that even had Omar Minaya running scared. And between you and me, I don’t think even John Lackey is worth the money and the years they are talking about right now. Roy Halladay perhaps. But Lackey? No. Bulldog isn’t enough for me.
It was bad enough we had to watch helplessly last winter as Omar showered the pitiful Oliver Perez with $36 million over three years, the biggest waste of money since Fred Wilpon met Bernie Madoff. (And, by the way, I agreed with his not going after Derek Lowe, who the Braves now want to unload.) Now I’m worried that the Mets may throw good money after bad and overpay guys who are really no better than back of the rotation arms. And if I hear one more “but he gives you innings,” I’ll lose my lunch.
Listen, for every pitcher that turns his career around in his mid to late 20s, there are probably a half dozen who have a one-season positive spike (thanks to a pitching coach, throwing in a pitcher’s park, being on a good offensive team, etc) and then fall back down to earth. I can’t cite specific stats or data to back that up, I’m just going on 45 years of following baseball. How about one example from the 1973 “Ya Gotta Believe” Mets: Pitching for the Braves in 1971 and ‘72 at the ages of 25 and 26, George Stone went a combined 12-19 with a 5.51 ERA in ‘72. He was basically a throw-in in the Felix Millan trade before the 1973 season, and as a fourth starter that year went 12-3 with a 2.80 ERA and should have pitched Game 6 of the World Series (I’m now two for two in mentioning that fateful situation in blog posts here).
Let’s say Stone had done that last year and was a free agent this winter. We’re talking an Ollie Perez deal, perhaps even more. What did George Stone do for the Mets the following two years? A combined 5-10 in 24 starts with an ERA of 5.03 and 5.05 and a hits to innings-pitched ratio that would make Bobby Ojeda collapse in the SNY studio. The question is this: Why do scouts suddenly not believe their reports or their instincts when a middle-aged (in baseball years) pitcher has one decent season?
It’s called desperation and for that I blame free agency, expansion, Tony LaRussa and every manager who has copied his over-reliance on the bullpen. When you layer those factors onto the already well-established precept that starting pitching is without question the most important part of building a championship baseball team, it’s no wonder that anybody who can get throw a ball close to 90 mph for strikes once in a while is going to become a multi-millionaire.
I won’t get into the tiresome debate about how free-agency and huge contracts have impacted the game, but the unintended consequence of the huge investments in pitchers has lead to them being treated like delicate pieces of china who might break if you just look at them. A huge irony or contradiction of that last statement, depending on how you look at it, is that said huge investments in high draft picks has also led to rushing young pitchers to the majors before they are ready. Mike Pelfrey: I rest my case. I don’t care what the signing bonus has been, you don’t bring a young pitcher to the big leagues unless he is a Dwight Gooden-esque prodigy or he has absolutely dominated at least Double A for a full year. All of the above has led to the evolution of middle relievers (who used to be the weakest pitchers on the staff) who really need to be good because–thanks to LaRussa and his ilk–your best relief pitcher can only pitch the ninth inning with nobody on base or else it will lead to the apocalypse. And coloring all of those factors has been the rapid expansion of baseball over the past four decades, which has added dozens of pitchers to big league rosters who really have no business being in the majors.
So when it comes to pitching, especially starting pitching, it will always be a seller’s market no matter how many guys are free agents and no matter how bad the economy is at the time. It’s going to take a front office with a great scouting department and a strong will to resist the temptation to sign these mediocrities. Which is why I don’t agree with that blowhard Mike Francesa when he wails that the Mets shouldn’t go after Roy Halladay. Normally, I’d rather sign a free agent than trade prospects, but if you’re going to spend big money, you might as well go for the gusto, even if it does cost Pelfrey (a cream puff who would be replaced with Halladay), Daniel Murphy (a guy without a real position) and Fernando Martinez (who would be out of the picture if the Mets sign Jason Bay or any other left fielder). Hey, the Phillies are thinking about trading Cole Hamels for the guy!
I understand that signing free-agent pitchers can be something of a crap shoot. But does it have to be insane?
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Great post, Tom T. It is insane, but the stakes are huge with the ‘right’ pitchers leading teams to pennants and beyond. i thought Francesa was calling for the Mets to trade for Halladay, but maybe he spins it differently day to day.
i also prefer the F/A route to rebuild a team, keeping most of our better prospects to feed the process, but Halladay is a special pitcher. One, we clearly must not let the Phillies ‘get’ him and not respond, just sit there, resigned to the Phils reigning in the Division for the next 4 – 5 years.
We either, pro-actively, go after him ‘hard’, or tear the wallet to shreds in every attempt to sign Lackey, Bay, Marquis, Sheets, Hudson or Kennedy…..et al…you get the picture.
These are perilous times in the world and also in the picayune world of baseball for our beloved NY Mets. We have to have a vision and ACT or be lost for half of the next decade.
Thanks Bob. The other day Francesca was saying that the Mets shouldn’t trade Reyes in a Halladay package but perhaps they could do it for prospects and even then paying 100 million for a 33 year old starter is crazy. Frankly, I wouldn’t necessarily discount a Reyes-Halladay trade if you don’t have to give up too much else. I’ve long felt that if we were going to trade one of the “core” guys it should be Reyes. I’ve totally lost my patience with him and that was before the injuries. He’s a great talent with little baseball instincts and the jury is out on whether he’ll ever really emerge as the consistent, solid star we all thought he would be. It’s a shame he got hurt last year because I would have wanted to use him to bring in a big pitcher or re-stock the farm system. Now we have to hold our collective breath and hope he makes a comeback and matures at the same time. If our shortstop is not going to be a team leader or one of the smartest guys on the field–or at least solid if the rest of team is carrying the load–then he’s not worth it. Remember, we won a World Series in 1986 with Rafael Santana at shortstop.
Given the uncertainties concerning Reyes’ physical condition, Toronto would never agree to any deal including him at this time.
Wow, Tom. All of the Mets fans I talk to never seem to want to go here. You’re the first that ever agreed with me about Reyes. He’s not the only one but there are SEVERAL players that the Mets could’ve gotten value for BEFORE their decline. I have felt since last year that although Jose is a great talent, there’s something from a consistency and perhaps even emotional standpoint that is not working. His reaction to discipline says something to me personally too. We should’ve traded him for what Boston was offering 2 years ago. At least, we’d have gamers on our team. NEW YORK TEAMS ALWAYS NEED GAMERS and not complainers…Like I said, there’s several players starting with Maine and ending with Delgado. We could’ve came out like bandits!
Tom, Congratulations on a great article! Oliver Perez is the poster child for your assertion regarding the overpay of starting pitchers. The Mets staff needs to be refurbished. One of the quickest ways to do that is to trade for Roy Halladay. If Pelfrey, Dan Murphy, and F-Mart can be part of that, go for it. They are all expendable in exchange for Halladay. Add in Parnell and any one of our 3 catchers and I would send off all 5 in a package. If that would pull it off, the question is how do we get Halladay to take the Mets off his no-trade list. I would think that requires us to bring in a big bat like Bay to show we’re serious. Would be nice, but my hopes are dim.
I agree MaskMan. I’d do the five for one swap (and they kick in a few dollars to offset some of the contract) and then our team slogan can be: Halladay and Bay and make other teams pay! (Or since it’s Chanukah: Make other teams say “Oy vay!”)
mask, halladay’s demands to stay 23m+/?yrs would cripple any hopes for additional acquisitions there is a solid ceiling set at our spending, the closer we get to it esp with untradable contracts, the less our ability to address future needs. imagine having to bupass any shot at playing in ther pujols mkt because we’ve solidified our payroll too close to the luxury cap? unthinkable. here’s the other falicy… no trades are dealable; but to whom, what teams ae out there other than perhaps nyy,bosoz,laa who have the ability to acquire that big an item?
all of what terrif is saying is moot since mr. peabody’s wayback machine doesn’t truly exist. i shocked a few of you with some interesting payroll history items such as these listings of highest payrolls in last 20 yrs:
1989 – 21.6m, lad
1990 – 23.9m, kc
1991 – 33.6m oak
1992 – 44.4m, nym
1993 – 45.7m, tor
1994 – 44.8m, nyy*
1995 – 49.8m. tor
1996 – 52.2m, nyy
1997 – 59.1m, nyy
1998 – 70.4m, balt
1999 – 88.1m, nyy
2000 – 93.0m, nyy
2001 – 112.0m, nyy**
2002 – 126.0m, nyy
2003 – 153.0m, nyy
2004 – 184.0m, nyy
2005 – 208.0m, nyy***
2006 – 194.0m, nyy*
2007 – 189.0m, nyy*
2008 – 209.0m, nyy
2009 – 201.0m, nyy*
* denotes years when top payroll plateau dropped from prior yr
** breaking of 100m mark
*** breakingh of 200m mark
as is evident the progressive nature of payroll has been driven by mostly one team over the past 11 years
only a time machine will reverse the trend completely since only four times in the past 20 years has the top payroll number actually decreased from the previous yr. i beliebve this is a perfect example of what transpires when the inmates are running the asylum…lmao!
other than computing power can anyone specify a commodity that has actually decreased in price over this same 20 yr timeframe?
Yes, i think we’d have to have gotten a Bay or have ‘fixed’ the LF hole already, and probably have done other signings, for Doc to ok a trade to the Mets.
Separately, just saw that Kevin Correia may be non-tendered by the Padres today. Seems to me, he’s younger than a Marquis, Garland, et al, and in same category of pitchers. We should think about geeting him, if he becomes available.
I think we really need to be aggressive on those non-tendered guys if they match up well with the guys already out there on the market. I would try to sign Marquis or Piniero if reasonably priced, keep Maine, dump Ollie and include Pelfrey in a trade.
I agree with everything except keeping Maine. I think the reason why he was in trade talks for 3 days with the Brew Crew was because they’re not confident in him either. I think he’s a potential “injured every year guy”. We need to shake him loose while we can. Your suggestion is a deal that can actually get done….
i agree. Wang will be non-tendered tonight. Correia looks good to me. Nady also a F/A. Bummed we didn’t pursue Tim Hudson whom the Orioles got for nothing; and why the hell did we sell our Rule 5 pick to the Dodgers for bupkus cash?! Hope there’s a trade pending with the Dodgers.
Meanwhile, is Garrett Atkins any good?
Garrett Atkins has been declining for several years now and contributed nothing this year. Maybe he can recover with a change of scenery, but he is far from a lock.
I would definitely take a chance on Wang, especially coming over the NL. Only problem is: didn’t he get hurt running the bases?
This is a great conversation. Yu, a couple of things. On Reyes, one of the biggest red flags with him are the reports since the end of 2008 that he’s become more interested in late night catting around with the ladies than getting prepared for games. If he’s not going to be serious about the game, I don’t want him here. As for Maine, it’s not that I’m so in love with him (I don’t think his off-speed pitches are good enough for him to be a big winner), but I think we can get more for Pelfrey, who I see as having only slightly better upside than Maine at this point. Frankly, I wouldn’t mind overhauling the whole starting staff except for Johan.
Yeah, Tom, think of the possibilities…..Can’t you visualize, at least, two strong packages for Jose Reyes, John Maine, and Mike Pelfrey (I wouldn’t even add Ollie because if they paid all his money, no team will take him). We could get a couple of arms and definitely a starting infielder and some bench guys out of it. All three of those guys I named are guys most teams they can fix or improve with. I bet with Peterson in their ears, the Brewers would take them all in a heartbeat as would Baltimore, Tampa, (perhaps) Boston, and a host of others. Hopefully this dream will become reality!
First time I’ve read trading Pelfrey as an option. I really dont see any qualities that justified why the Mets took him with the 7th overall pick. We could have drafted Elsbury, Bucholtz, Maybin or McCutchen who all followed the Pelfrey pick. He’s a bust, and will never be better than Trachsel at best. That first round was full of fireballers and we take the sinkerballer who gives up more homers than we can stomach. BUST!
Kevin, as I said in the piece, Pelfrey should have had one more full year dominating Triple A before he got rushed up. Then when he had some success because his has great natural movement on his fastball, the organization talked itself into believing he was ready. I don’t see him as anything more than a number three starter, if that much, in the majors and those guys are a dime a dozen. Might as well deal him when his value is high because he’s still young and some team might think they can improve him.
terrif? dump ollie? who are the owners of the team u root for? wilpons never,ever eat player contracts. see matsui,cedeno,bonilla,etc. i believe it goes back to fred’s experience lessons learned from dad during great depression, not wasting money by paying for services you don’t receive or some such. fred likely needed medication to buy out howe!
You guys are borderline nuts.
1. You never trade a Jose Reyes type player, period.
2. Pelfrey will always suck because he can’t strike people out.
3. Wang – ditto.
4. Correia sounds like a great acquisition.
5. Atkins would be an upgrade over Tatis.
6. Long term contracts are for position players ONLY. Arms are too fragile.
7. We’re stuck with Ollie.
8. Too bad the Mets are broke!
Here are the 2010 FA’s courtesy of MLBTR:
This may help put things into perspective…..
Catchers
Eliezer Alfonzo (31)
Brad Ausmus (41)
Paul Bako (38)
Rod Barajas (34) – Type B, offered arb
Josh Bard (32)
Michael Barrett (33)
Ramon Castro (34)
Toby Hall (34)
Bengie Molina (35) – Type A, not offered arb
Jose Molina (35)
Miguel Olivo (31) – Type B, not offered arb
Mike Redmond (39)
Yorvit Torrealba (31) – Type B, not offered arb
Matt Treanor (34)
Javier Valentin (34)
First basemen
Rich Aurilia (38)
Jeff Bailey (31)
Hank Blalock (29)
Russell Branyan (34)
Miguel Cairo (36)
Frank Catalanotto (36)
Tony Clark (38)
Carlos Delgado (38) – Type B, not offered arb
Nomar Garciaparra (36)
Eric Hinske (32)
Mike Jacobs (29)
Nick Johnson (31) – Type B, not offered arb
Adam LaRoche (30) – Type B, not offered arb
Doug Mientkiewicz (36)
Kevin Millar (38)
Fernando Tatis (35) – Type B, not offered arb
Chad Tracy (30)
Daryle Ward (35)
Dmitri Young (36)
Second basemen
Ronnie Belliard (35) – Type B, not offered arb
Jamey Carroll (36)
Craig Counsell (39)
Mark DeRosa (35) – Type B, offered arb
Nick Green (31)
Jerry Hairston Jr. (34)
Orlando Hudson (32) – Type A, not offered arb
Adam Kennedy (34)
Felipe Lopez (30) – Type B, not offered arb
Mark Loretta (38)
Pablo Ozuna (35)
Juan Uribe (31)
Shortstops
Eric Bruntlett (32)
Orlando Cabrera (35) – Type A, can’t be offered arb
Craig Counsell (39)
Chris Gomez (39)
Nick Green (31)
Khalil Greene (30)
Jerry Hairston Jr. (34)
Miguel Tejada (36) – Type A, not offered arb
Third basemen
Rich Aurilia (38)
Brian Barden (29)
Adrian Beltre (31) – Type B, offered arb
Aaron Boone (37)
Craig Counsell (39)
Joe Crede (32)
Bobby Crosby (30)
Mark DeRosa (35) – Type B, offered arb
Chone Figgins (32) – Type A, offered arb
Nomar Garciaparra (36)
Troy Glaus (33) – Type B, not offered arb
Adam Kennedy (34)
Mark Loretta (38)
Melvin Mora (38) – Type B, not offered arb
Pablo Ozuna (35)
Robb Quinlan (33)
Miguel Tejada (36) – Type A, not offered arb
Juan Uribe (31)
Left fielders
Garret Anderson (38) – Type B, not offered arb
Marlon Anderson (36)
Jason Bay (31) – Type A, offered arb
Emil Brown (35)
Marlon Byrd (32) – Type B, offered arb
Johnny Damon (36) – Type A, not offered arb
David Dellucci (36)
Cliff Floyd (37)
Joey Gathright (28)
Matt Holliday (30) – Type A, offered arb
Reed Johnson (33)
Laynce Nix (29)
Greg Norton (37)
Wily Mo Pena (28)
Dave Roberts (38)
Gary Sheffield (41)
Fernando Tatis (35) – Type B, not offered arb
Marcus Thames (33)
Randy Winn (36) – Type B, not offered arb
Center fielders
Rick Ankiel (30)
Rocco Baldelli (28)
Marlon Byrd (32) – Type B, offered arb
Mike Cameron (37) – Type B, not offered arb
Endy Chavez (32)
Coco Crisp (30)
Darin Erstad (36)
Jeff Fiorentino (27)
Ryan Freel (34)
Joey Gathright (28)
Jerry Hairston Jr. (34)
Reed Johnson (33)
Scott Podsednik (34)
Right fielders
Jermaine Dye (36) – Type A, not offered arb
Brian Giles (39) – Type B, not offered arb
Vladimir Guerrero (35) – Type B, not offered arb
Joey Gathright (28)
Eric Hinske (32)
Geoff Jenkins (35)
Austin Kearns (30)
Jason Michaels (34)
Xavier Nady (31) – Type B, not offered arb
Randy Winn (36) – Type B, not offered arb
Designated hitters
Hank Blalock (29)
Jason Giambi (39)
Vladimir Guerrero (35) – Type B, not offered arb
Aubrey Huff (33)
Mike Jacobs (29)
Hideki Matsui (36)
Gary Sheffield (41)
Matt Stairs (42)
Mike Sweeney (36)
Jim Thome (39)
Starting pitchers
Brandon Backe (32)
Cha Seung Baek (30)
Miguel Batista (39)
Erik Bedard (31) – Type B, not offered arb
Kris Benson (34)
Paul Byrd (39)
Daniel Cabrera (29)
Aroldis Chapman (22)
Bartolo Colon (37)
Jose Contreras (38)
Doug Davis (34) – Type B, not offered arb
Lenny DiNardo (30)
Justin Duchscherer (32) – Type B, offered arb
Adam Eaton (32)
Shawn Estes (37)
Josh Fogg (33)
Jon Garland (30) – Type B, not offered arb
Tom Glavine (44)
Mike Hampton (37)
Mark Hendrickson (36)
Livan Hernandez (35)
Rich Hill (30)
Shawn Hill (29)
Jason Jennings (31)
Jason Johnson (36)
Randy Johnson (46) – Type B, not offered arb
John Lackey (31) – Type A, offered arb
Braden Looper (35) – Type B, not offered arb
Rodrigo Lopez (34)
Noah Lowry (29)
Jason Marquis (31) – Type B, offered arb
Pedro Martinez (38)
Eric Milton (34)
Mark Mulder (32)
Brett Myers (29)
Vicente Padilla (32) – Type B, not offered arb
Odalis Perez (33)
Joel Pineiro (31) – Type B, offered arb
Sidney Ponson (33)
Mark Prior (28)
Horacio Ramirez (30)
Jason Schmidt (37)
Ben Sheets (31)
John Smoltz (43)
Brett Tomko (37)
Jarrod Washburn (35)
Todd Wellemeyer (31)
Kip Wells (33)
Closers
Mike Gonzalez (32) – Type A, offered arb
Kevin Gregg (32) – Type A, not offered arb
Fernando Rodney (33) – Type B, offered arb
Jose Valverde (32) – Type A, offered arb
Right-handed relievers
Luis Ayala (32)
Danys Baez (32)
Joaquin Benoit (32)
Chad Bradford (35)
Doug Brocail (43) – Type B, not offered arb
Kiko Calero (35) – Type B, not offered arb
Santiago Casilla (30)
Chad Cordero (28)
Elmer Dessens (38)
R.A. Dickey (35)
Brendan Donnelly (38)
Octavio Dotel (36) – Type A, not offered arb
Kelvim Escobar (33)
Eric Gagne (34)
Geoff Geary (33)
Dan Giese (33)
Edgar Gonzalez (27)
Tom Gordon (42)
Matt Herges (40)
Bob Howry (36) – Type B, not offered arb
Jason Isringhausen (37)
Jorge Julio (31)
Shane Loux (30)
Gary Majewski (30)
Guillermo Mota (36) – Type B, not offered arb
Joe Nelson (35)
Chan Ho Park (37) – Type B, not offered arb
Tomo Ohka (34)
Joel Peralta (34)
Troy Percival (40)
Juan Rincon (31)
Saul Rivera (32)
Duaner Sanchez (30)
Rudy Seanez (41)
Justin Speier (36)
Russ Springer (41) – Type B, not offered arb
Julian Tavarez (37)
Luis Vizcaino (35)
Tyler Walker (34)
David Weathers (40) – Type B, not offered arb
Jeff Weaver (33)
Jamey Wright (35)
Tyler Yates (32)
Left-handed relievers
John Bale (36)
Joe Beimel (32) – Type B, not offered arb
Alan Embree (40)
Scott Eyre (38) – Type B, not offered arb
Casey Fossum (32)
Eddie Guardado (39)
Mark Hendrickson (36)
Ron Mahay (39)
Will Ohman (31) – Type B, not offered arb
Darren Oliver (39) – Type A, not offered arb
Horacio Ramirez (30)
Glendon Rusch (35)
Scott Schoeneweis (36)
Brian Shouse (41) – Type B, offered arb
Ken Takahashi (41)
Jack Taschner (32)
Ron Villone (40)
Jamie Walker (38)
It seems obvious the Amazins picked the best of the bunch from this list. Molina is tops at catcher. 2Bmen Hudson, DeRosa, and Kennedy make perfect sense. Bay and Holliday are tops for LF’ers (Thames played 20, Byrd played 36 gms at the spot)..The pitching is weirder. Washburn(9-9/3.78),Doug Davis(9-14/4.12),Garland(11-13/4.01) are no diff than what we have at the back end already. Going after Lackey, Marquis, and Pineiro are no-brainers. Sheets is dicey so we need 5 solid starters locked in just in case. My only questions are why no interest in Bob Howry from SF(14-8 3.92) And for RP, Scott Eyre(2-1/1.50 in 42 apps)? They already like Darren Oliver with a 5-1 rec/2.71. None of the available 1B have a better OBP, SLG, or OPS than Carlos Delgado. Might as well bring him back for a year.
Buster Olney is usually good about things like this but with all the talk about Anaheim trying to re-upp for Lackey, this may be very good news:
“According to Buster Olney of ESPN.com, “There are signs they may have made a significant offer to free-agent LHP John Lackey.”