Roy Halladay: We May Be Witnesses To A Biblical Prophecy

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• Bob L. December 9, 2009 at 10:02 am

  Put me down as delusional, but i still say we may well be able to snag Hallady with a package of Pelfrey, Parnell, Martinez, Santos, Mejia. Why would the Angels trade Weaverr to get Halladay? After gaining Doc, they merely have Matt Palmer and prospects to take up the slack of having lost Lackey and then Weaver. Makes no sense to me.
  Montero is a fantastic prospect, but Joba’s glitter has faded.
  • Joe D December 9, 2009 at 10:16 am

    Despite my negativity of late, I’m delusional too. I am still holding out hope that somehow we snag him covertly as we did with Santana. One thing Omar has done well in the past is fly under the radar. I’ll keep my fingers crossed until Halladay is finally traded.
• Mykey December 9, 2009 at 10:08 am

  This Halladay situation sounds VERY familiar to me. I could have sworn that something like this took place 2 years ago, with a team all but out of the running for the top pitcher on the market, only to land him in February.
• Brian H. December 9, 2009 at 11:58 am

  Poor Mets fans lol. We still have plenty of room for more fans on the Yankees side. Take the plunge.
• Sach C. December 9, 2009 at 1:05 pm

  Boston may be the wildcard in this. It depends if they’re willing to put Casey Kelly or Clay Bucholtz into the deal; and also how much money they’ll have left after the Bay negotiations.

  The Yankees could get him, as they’ll almost certainly trade Montero between now and when Mauer becomes a free agent. But would Montero/Joba or Montero/Hughes be enough for Halladay. I don’t think so. They would have to kick in other prospects as well, as Toronto wants a middle-infielder too. The only way I see them getting him is if they put Montero/Joba/Hughes or if they send a lesser offer, but take back Vernon Wells’s contract (which no one will do).

  As for the Angels, when was the last time they traded their top prospects away. The Angels are willing to let players like Tex, K-Rod, Lackey, Figgins etc. leave because they have a deep pipeline.

  The problem with the Mets sneaking in this time around is that the Wilpons will have to fork over a big extension, and I don’t believe it until I see them pay for someone other than a catcher.
• Shamik December 9, 2009 at 1:18 pm

  Mets are not going to get Halladay. It would certainly go a long way to help, but it really would be too much money and there are too many other needs.
  • METS62FAN December 10, 2009 at 12:23 pm

    SHAM, I TEND TO AGREE, ONCE MORE MET FANS ARE PREFERRING THE HOWITZER WHEN A HANDGUN IS BETTER SUITED. HALLADAY, FIRST, WOULD REQUIRE AN UNTENNABLE EXTENSION OF 4 YRS OR SO @ 23M WITH A FULL NO-TRADE. CAN THE METS SURVIVE 3 SUCH DEALS ON BOOKS? BETRAN,SANTANA,HALLADAY? I DOUBT IT. CERTAINLY NO TRADES ARE LIKE LIFE SENTENCES AS THEY RARELY MEAN WHAT THEY IMPLY; BUT WHAT TEAM, OUTSIDE OF NYY,BOSTON,LAA,LAD ARE BIG ENOUGH TO INDUCE ONE OF THEM TO WAIVE IF THE TIME COMES? METS NEVER INCL CASH SO FACTS ARE FACTS A HALLADAY DEAL, WHILE A DREAM ON THE FIELD IS A NIGHTMARE TO MANEUVER AROUND WHEN PATING A LUXURY TAX IS VOBOTEN. BEST NYM PITCHING ACQUISITION IS LACKEY FOR #2. HALLADAY IF WE NEEDED A BONAFIDE #1; BUT DONE THAT 2Y AGO & UNLIKELY REPEATED UNDER PRESENT OWNERSHIP.
• Nester December 9, 2009 at 1:49 pm

  The Yankees officially signed Pettite. Unlike the Mets, they have a great sense of urgency this off season.
• CO Mets fan December 9, 2009 at 11:17 pm

  if this happens, if the damn Yankees were to somehow get Halliday I would give up watching baseball for at least 5 years.
  • METS62FAN December 10, 2009 at 12:32 pm

    CAPSLOCK=DISABILITY ACCOMODATION
    CO IGNORE THE BASTARDS THEY’RE ONLY RELEVANT 6G/YR. EVEN IF WE WERE TO MEET IN WS THAT’S NO GUARANTEE, WEREN’T THE NYY PROHIBITIVE FAVORITES AGAINST FISH & SNAKES? OR CINCY AGAINST US IN NLCS OF ’73. OR US AGAINST STL IN ’06? SHORT SERIES BELONGS TO PITCHING, SURE,; BUT LUCK PLAYS THE BIGGEST PART. AS LONG AS HE DOESN’T GO TO PHL OR ATL, IT’S NO WORRY FOR US AS GETTING TO POST IS MOST IMPORTANT MEASURE. THE YANKS WILL DO THEIR THING AND THEY’VE GOT TO FIRST SURPASS BOSOX TO BE RELEVANT. WE’VE SEEN THIS BEFORE. THEY’RE ALWAYS GETTING THAT “OH MY GOD PIECE” YET, THEY ONLY HAVE 27 TITLES IN HOW MANY TRIES
    (SEASONS) 100+? I THINK THAT’S BOUT A .275 BA, LOL!
• Anthony December 10, 2009 at 12:16 am

  Well actually, Roy Halliday’s #1 choice for trade is the Phillies according Jason Stark, that would be worse then the yanks:

  The Roy Halladay buying guide

  No holiday sale: Toronto probably isn’t going to slash its asking price anytime soonComment Email Print Share By Jayson Stark
  ESPN.com
  Archive
  INDIANAPOLIS — Well, we now know one guy who probably won’t be going anywhere for the holidays.

  A fellow by the name of Roy Halladay.

  The not-so-dramatic finish line of another not-so-dramatic winter meetings is just over the horizon now. But it was becoming increasingly clear Wednesday night that the most available Cy Young in North America isn’t going to be showing up on any winter-meetings transaction scoreboard near you.

  Matter of fact, it’s hard to believe how little we’ve even heard his name.

  Then again, that’s exactly what the Blue Jays wanted us to be saying this week about Roy Halladay: Roy Who?

  [+] EnlargeTom Szczerbowski/US Presswire
  The Phillies, Yankees, Red Sox and Angels are atop Roy Halladay’s list of preferred destinations.And why is that? Well, just to recap here, in case you got distracted by NFL two-a-days and missed Round One of Doc on the Block last July, the Blue Jays weren’t too thrilled that their attempts to deal their No. 1 starter before the trading deadline unfolded about as quietly as a space-shuttle launch.

  So now that they’ve launched Round Two, they showed up in beautiful downtown Indianapolis determined that they would rather talk publicly about the big harmonized-sales-tax dispute than about the rampant availability of old Cy Halladay.

  Which means, among other things, that we’ve heard about 1.3 zillion fewer breathless updates on this edition of the Halladay trade talks than we heard about the last edition.

  But don’t take that as a sign that nothing much is going on. Ohhhh no. The Blue Jays are still trying to move this man. And they’re still talking to about a half-dozen teams. And the price is still approximately as high as the Bay Adelaide Centre. And still nobody, at this point, appears too wild about paying that price.

  So what does that mean, exactly? Here’s what:

  “I think they’ll be able to trade him this winter,” said an official of one team that has talked to Toronto about Halladay. “I just don’t think it will be here. And I don’t think it will be any time soon.

  “We’re really just in the early stages of the offseason. So there’s no reason for them not to set the price really high. I think there are a lot of parallels to the [Johan] Santana deal two years ago. The price at the winter meetings was a lot higher than the price the Mets wound up paying, if you remember.”

  Yeah, it’s coming back to us, anyway. So let’s see now. If Halladay isn’t going to get traded at the winter meetings, and he probably isn’t going to get traded until we finish watching “Rockin’ New Years Eve” and flip the calendars to 2010, then where is all this leading? Let’s take a look:

  The Field

  We’ve heard from multiple sources this week that there are no more than a half-dozen teams Halladay will approve a trade to.

  His “A” List: Phillies, Yankees, Red Sox, Angels.

  His “Maybe” List: Rays and Dodgers.

  So what about the Mets? “I don’t think he’d go to the Mets,” said one source who knows him well.

  And what about the other team sometimes connected with this set of Halladay rumors, the Cubs? Unlikely, we were told, but no definitive word.

  So the possibilities for the Blue Jays aren’t exactly endless. But that’s still a longer list than the Twins were working with in the Santana Derby, remember. And all of those clubs have at least inquired. So there are more than enough options to get something done.

  The Asking Price

  If we roll the clock back to revisit what the Blue Jays were asking for Halladay last summer, you can understand why tensions ran high and tempers grew short.

  Whoever your No. 1 prospect was, they were a lock to ask for him.

  Whoever your No. 2 prospect was, they were guaranteed to ask for him, too.

  And then the request line really opened for business.

  Only the Blue Jays know for sure what they actually asked for, obviously. But we heard about four-for-one deals, five-for-one deals, even eight-for-one deals.

  That was then, though. And this is now. Five months later, then-GM J.P. Ricciardi is gone. And five months later, it’s too late for Halladay to make an impact on two pennant races, because the 2009 stretch drive has passed into history as ancient as the Ice Age. So Halladay can only put a dent in one race now, because his free agency is just 11 months away.

  So the price, we’re hearing, has definitely come down. Just not that much.

  “It’s different than July,” said an official of another club. “They’ll take less now — in quantity. But the quality is still very high. They’re talking top of the line. If it’s three or four for one, it won’t be an A, a B and a C. It’ll be four A’s.”

  And ideally, the Blue Jays want all those players to be young players or prospects — guys who will work cheap for a couple of years and have massive amounts of service time remaining. This club won’t say this out loud, naturally, but it’s proceeding like a team that knows the way to go is to aim for a couple of years down the road. So players who can help them win in 2012 are a higher priority than players who can help them win in 2010. Which makes total sense.

  But they would also take a young, controllable big-league player, especially if he’s a pitcher — a Joe Saunders or Ervin Santana kind of guy for instance.

  We’ve also heard that in the “right” deal, the Blue Jays would take a veteran player back if he’s the right fit at the right price and he’d make it easier for the other club to say yes. It’s still way too early to say exactly which players that might be — whether, say, a Juan Rivera would be fine in an Angels deal but a Gary Matthews Jr. would be too pricy. But it shows a sense of flexibility that wasn’t as present in July, at least.

  The Contract

  There is now just one year left — at $15.75 million — on the three-year extension Halladay signed with the Blue Jays back in 2006. So for most of the clubs lining up to trade for him, his salary for 2010 won’t be a problem.

  It’s what lies beyond 2010 that makes this complicated.

  The Blue Jays haven’t said for sure whether they’ll open a window, to negotiate a pre-deal extension, for teams trying to trade for Halladay. They’ve hinted that they prefer not to, in fact. But if it’s a deal-breaker, it’s tough to see them holding firm on that stance.

  What no one knows, though, is whether Halladay is open to signing a pre-deal extension. Even the teams that are interested have heard conflicting reports about that. But one source who has known Halladay almost his entire career sounds skeptical that he’ll be signing any extensions.

  “I don’t see him blindly signing with that team. Let’s put it that way,” the source said. “Money isn’t going to be enough to get it done. For him, the chance of winning is more important than anything.”

  But geography might be a close second — because when we asked where Halladay would most want to be, if he could pick any team and money wasn’t an object, you might be surprised by the answer.

  “If he could only pick one place? Oh, Philadelphia,” the source said. “No question. He lives right near their spring training camp. It’s an easy trip down to Florida to get home. They’ve got a great team. And it’s not the pressure of New York — not that pressure bothers him.”

  And what about the West Coast? Angels? Dodgers?

  “I think he’d go there if it’s a trade,” the source said. “But I don’t see him signing there [long-term].”

  So as this deal approaches, the teams with the shopping carts will need to be wary of the expectation that they’d be doing any more than renting this guy for one season. And just as important, the Blue Jays may have to adjust their asking price for the same reason.

  The Tote Board

  When we surveyed a bunch of baseball men this month on where they thought Halladay would wind up, the same team came up over and over: the Angels.

  They made a big run last July. Looks as if they’re about to wave adios to John Lackey. They’re overstuffed with young pitching and prospects. There have even been indications they’d be willing to trade shortstop Erick Aybar, a player they wouldn’t even discuss last summer.

  The Toronto Sun reported Wednesday that the Angels offered Saunders, Aybar and outfield prospect Peter Bourjos for Halladay during these meetings. All three were believed to be on the Blue Jays’ wish list last July, by the way. So the makings for a deal are there. But the Angels also have said that if Halladay won’t sign an extension, they’re probably not making this trade. So even if all the other pieces fit together, the extension piece might not.

  Then there are the Yankees. Two years after they balked at making a prospect-for-Cy Young deal for Santana, it’s fascinating that they’re clearly still mulling the same kind of deal for Halladay. And they still think they have enough prospects left to make that trade, too, even after the Curtis Granderson deal, because indications are that the Blue Jays always preferred catching prospect Jesus Montero to center fielder Austin Jackson, who was dealt for Granderson.

  But would the Yankees really be willing to give up Montero, and either Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain, plus other pieces, for one year of Halladay? Executives of clubs who have dealt with them kept using the same word: “unlikely.”

  And what about the Phillies, allegedly Halladay’s preferred destination? They’ve been noticeably coy on this subject, publicly and privately.

  When we asked GM Ruben Amaro Jr. on Wednesday if he thought a major deal for a pitcher — like, for instance, Guess Who — Amaro replied (without ever mentioning Halladay’s name): “Is there, in any way, a possibility? I guess there is. But is there a likelihood of us getting involved in something big? Probably not.”

  But that wasn’t exactly a “no way.” And even privately, Phillies officials never quite say no when Halladay’s name comes up. Asked at one point if he could see them trading for this guy, one of those officials answered: “We already have our ace (i.e., Cliff Lee).” But that’s not a “no” either, now is it? Also, the Phillies have quietly let teams know that Joe Blanton could be available in a deal to free payroll space for — well, maybe Halladay.

  But despite all those signs, the Phillies remain as dug in against trading their top two prospects, pitcher Kyle Drabek and outfielder Domonic Brown, as they were last summer. So unless the Blue Jays back off, a more likely scenario involves the Phillies chasing Halladay as a free agent next winter if they can’t re-sign Lee.

  As for the rest of the list, the Red Sox haven’t given any signs of dancing this dance since the Blue Jays reportedly asked for Clay Buchholz and fast-ascending prospect Casey Kelly. The Dodgers made another run this week and quickly concluded they didn’t have a fit. And the Rays were always off-the-charts long shots, a team that landed on Halladay’s thumbs-up list because of geography alone.

  So …

  Now What?

  OK, let’s assume the Blue Jays don’t make a deal before they jump on the next airplane out of Indy. And let’s assume nothing much changes over the next few weeks. Then their next big question is this:

  How seriously do they take Halladay’s better-trade-me-before-spring-training-or-else deadline?

  “Let me ask you something,” said an official of one of these teams. “If you were him and you were still in Toronto in July and your team was already out of it, you wouldn’t accept a trade to a team with a chance to win? I think you would. And I’m sure he would.”

  Seems like a heck of a bet, especially if that trade next July were to get pulled off as quietly as the Jake Peavy deal was last summer. But how willing are the Blue Jays to take that chance? And at this point, wouldn’t they be better off just trading their ace this winter and kicking off the rest of their lives?

  Well, we don’t know how they’ll feel about that scenario in mid-January, if the offers haven’t improved. But the sense we get is that the teams in this derby are willing to hold firm and take that chance.

  “It’s still so early in the offseason, they have to keep that bar high for now,” said one of the officials quoted earlier. “But eventually, they’ve got to move off it. And I think everybody knows that.”

  Jayson Stark is a senior writer for ESPN.com. His new book, “Worth The Wait: Tales of the 2008 Phillies,” was published by Triumph Books and is available in bookstores and online. Click here to order a copy