14
2009
Is There A Chance Mike Pelfrey Gets Traded?
An article by Hojo's Mojo
As the Mets try their best to acquire a number two starter to pair with ace Johan Santana for the 2010 season, let’s examine the facts surrounding Mike Pelfrey, who was anointed the number two starter last season.
The 2009 season was one to forget for the young righthander who the Mets selected ninth overall in the 2005 MLB Draft. Pelfrey regressed across the board among many statistical measures, but even worse was his mental makeup as the stress of his declining performance wore on. By seasons end, he looked frazzled on the mound and his confidence was visibly shaken.
His 2008 ERA (3.72) jumped to 5.03, and his WHIP (1.36) spiked to 1.51. Both his walk and hit rates increased significantly and he nearly doubled his HR rate as well. In 184 innings pitched he allowed a whopping 213 hits. Opposing hitters batted .291 against Pelfrey last season.
The esteemed Bill James predicts a 9-12 season for Pelfrey in 2010 with a 4.45 ERA. Not exactly the type of numbers one would expect from a top ten overall pick.
In a recent article for the Daily News, John Harper wrote the following,
A lack of mental toughness has seemingly kept Pelfrey from living up to the label he earned as the No. 9 pick in the draft out of Wichita State in 2005, but he seemed to clear a hurdle of sorts in 2008, going 13-11 with a 3.72 ERA.
Last season, however, he went 10-12 with a 5.03 ERA, and at times, as the NL scout put it, “he gave you the impression he didn’t want to be on the mound.”
A year ago, Omar Minaya spoke glowingly about Mike Pelfrey when he pronounced him as his number two starter for the 2009 season. He went on air and even suggested that Pelfrey could be as good or better than most of the number two starters of the other contending teams. However these days, Minaya is singing another tune.
When asked specifically about Mike Pelfrey’s status as the Mets de-facto number two pitcher, he responded:
“I know we have a No.1,” Minaya said, referring to Santana. “But once you’re getting into the 2-3-4 guys … look, we felt last year we had a good team, and a lot of people in baseball thought we had a good team, with the pitching we have in place now. That being said, coming off last year, to say these guys are going to pitch to their potential, we’re in some gray areas.”
Not only does Minaya completely fail to mention Pelfrey by name, but in one fell swoop he admits that every spot behind Santana is now being viewed as a gray area.
Harper quotes a Major League scout in his article who said the following regarding Mike Pelfrey’s regression,
One NL scout who saw Pelfrey pitch late in the season said Monday he can’t understand what happened to his once-devastating two-seam fastball, with the sink and 95-mph velocity that once made him a can’t-miss prospect.
“I remember seeing him in Double-A,” the scout said, “and his sinker was better than it was when I saw him (last season). It seems to be a mental thing with him.”
Anthony DiComo of MLB.com wrote this about Mike Pelfrey regarding his reputation as a ground ball pitcher.
The common misconception about Mike Pelfrey is that he is an extreme ground ball pitcher. He is not. Statistically speaking, Pelfrey has proven merely average at inducing ground balls throughout his career, submitting a Major League ground-ball-to-fly-ball ratio of 1.05. The 1.09 ratio he has posted so far in 2009, in fact, is the highest mark of his big league career. And his lifetime rate does not compare favorably to that of other notable MLB sinker ballers, including Tim Hudson (1.51), Derek Lowe (1.75) and Brandon Webb (1.89).
Whether it’s as a number two starter or as a number five starter, the Mets clearly have a lot of time and money invested in Pelfrey who received a hefty $3.3 million signing bonus and collected $6.6 million in salary between 2006-2009 in the heavily front loaded contract he signed when the Mets drafted him. In other words he was paid an average salary of $2.5 million in each of his 4 years with the Mets. This season, the Mets exercised their team option which will pay Pelfrey just $500K, an 80% pay cut.
The calls and speculation about potentially including Pelfrey in a trade have become louder and more frequent. I can’t see that happening until the Mets first acquire at least one top of the rotation starters. Lackey is still an option for the Mets, as is Jason Marquis and Joel Pineiro to lesser degrees.
Despite Bill James’ best efforts, it’s hard to predict what Pelfrey will be like next season. He hasn’t progressed the way we all would have hoped, but he is just 26 years old and the potential for improvement is still there. He still has a great chance to put it all together, but will it be with the Mets?
About the Author: Rob Johnson
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Trading him, except straight up for Halladay, would be disasterous.
He’s still an excellent pitcher, and will still get better.
A better pitching coach would help this, and was part of the reason for his stunted growth last year. It seems like he had some success with a sinking pitch, and they almost focused on that success to the detriment of his overall game. He’s going out there with the wrong plan of attack, and executing the wrong pitches, etc. A better pitching coach, a better catcher, and most importantly, a years worth of more experience, will work wonders. I suspect Pelfrey has an awesome year this year.
I more or less see it as Ceetar does. This guy has shown way too much talent to conclude he simply sucks or isn’t “mentally tough” (bogus crapola!).
Everybody is tradeable, but I would expect a serious exchange for someone w/ Pelf’s proven ability and potential to be a consistently good pitcher.
I am still in Big Pelf’s corner.
russ, i beg to differ, there is a definite lack of self-confidence emanating from both “big pelf” & john maine. even after their best effort they’re more inclined to credit ‘luck’ than their ‘stuff” or abilities. never a “i knew he was looking for x & i gave him y” or i knew if i threw this…, he’d…” personally, i blame peterson for this as he found it necessary to break both of them down to accomplish their blind faith in string pitching. peterson makes modest pitching good & potentially good pitching modest. i was buoyed by warthen’s initial interviews where he pointed out his love affair with high heat. as i believed both pelf & maine would benefit from that instead of pitching to knees(strings) to induce gb as a way to minimize failure instead of eliminating it. more emphasis on contolling hitters contact than eliminating it. no wonder kazmir,bell & lindstrum balked at succombing thus finding themselves as undesirables by pitching’gm’/guru,peterson.
the wichita state’s coach’s commentary on seeing pelf for first time live was very inciteful he was wondering where tthe high 90s heat had gone? just ask rick. remember when johnny maine was sneaky high? that’s gone to aiming low. pitchers who have naturally rising pitches like maine can’t succeed consistantly with strings since any rise is into the middle of the wheelhouse! hopfully, warthen can get his old coach with whom pelf works offseason to get more of the old pelf intertwined with the peterson version. i think they tried it last yr; but schneider was too dumb to know when & to whom high heat was preferred to sinking heat. castro wasn’t much better since wasn’t it glavine that pointed out castro’s target was too high due to his back issues & size? or was it johan?
Depends on what we get back for him. If its another Billy Wagner-type deal, I think we can just say goodbye to this team for good.
if we trade him for something good and replace him with a Lackey im good with this move!
I always wondered why he was being touted as a sinker baller when he never really had good sink on his fastball; this was an additional reason why I was hopeful the Mets got Lowe, he would’ve helped Pelfrey tremendously with his. Nevertheless I expect him to improve on his 2009 season this year..let’s hope he does.
I’m not surprised his numbers went down last year as the year before he greatly exceeded all of his career highs in innings and whatnot. This is the year we find out what we have with him.
I recall a Game that he had 3 balks in.(leads the lead in Balks) He does seem to have a problem when he is in the pressure cooker.
“The esteemed Bill James predicts a 9-12 season for Pelfrey in 2010 with a 4.45 ERA. Not exactly the type of numbers one would expect from a top ten overall pick.”
The past is the past. How many other guys are going to win 9-12 games for us? Where he was drafted is of little significance now. Besides that reflects mostly on the Mets executive management.
I’m in Pelf’s corner all the way. Reading some of John Harper’s columns in the past couple of years leads me to conclude that he’s the guy who needs a psychiatrist.
You guys who think Pelfrey is a front-line starter really weren’t watching the games last year. Although I’ve said in previous posts I think the Mets rushed him to the majors too soon, he has also shown a lack of passion and maturity on the mound. Yes, he competes, but I don’t think there’s much going on upstairs. You can’t get by on just stuff, which frankly, wasn’t much there in the second half last season. If his ball doesn’t sink down and in he’s a fourth or fifth starter at best. If we can get a big time pitcher in a deal that includes him, I say do it.
I included Mike Pelfrey in a package for Roy Halladay. I also thought of including Dan Murphy for Lyle Overbay to encourage Toronto to get the trade done.
The package would include Neise, Pelfrey, Parnell, Santos, Fernando Martinez, and Dan Murphy for Roy Halladay and Overbay.
Neise tore his hammy last year. That may affect his trade value. I just hope he can bounce back and get that curve ball moving again.
no offense but, no matter how high it is piled, crap is still crap. If I were the GM in Toronto and i had to sell my fans on that, I would wear a suit of armor.
Pelfrey will always be inconsistent because he can’t strike people out.
Same goes for Maine, Wang, Carmona, etc. It all comes down to luck and the defense behind them.
look people pelf cant get the 3rd out if he had a gun to his head! i said to my friends that hes never gonna be worth the stock that the mets put on em!
im sorry everyone but the mets arent gonna do a damn thing but stink like an old womans yeast infested crotch!
now i really think that NOONE should should ever show any type of support for a team that does everything wrong!
i for 1 am not gonna waste a damn penny on a team that does absolutely nothing but make some hard working fans upset with a triple A team on the field!
wise up everyone minaya needs to go and the pitching coach needs to go! im sick of being the one to hear the mets this the mets that….
the mets shouldve did everything after the season to make major moves and all they did was just sit back and do nothing..