Early ADPs have Jimmy Rollins going before Jose Reyes, but just barely. Heading into 2009 it would have been an easy decision for owners, with Reyes considered one of the top selections in all of baseball. Should the injury concerns from last season have sent him down below Rollins? Let’s take a look.
Speed:
We all know that Reyes possesses game changing speed, which is where the majority of his value sits. From 2005-2008, his lowest stolen base total was 56, picking up as many as 78 in 2007. Can he reach those levels once again?
The first question is the leg injuries that derailed his 2009 campaign. Every time it appeared like he was on his way back there was another setback, leaving fans and fantasy owners alike to grow more and more frustrated. While the early word is that he is not going to be affected in 2010, after so many starts and stops in his recovery there has to at least be a little bit of doubt.
You also cannot forget that the Mets had been trying to reign him in a bit prior to the injury problems. After attempting 99 stolen bases in 2007, the fear was that the wear and tear on his body made it impossible for him to perform down the stretch. That year he hit just .205 with five stolen bases in September as the Mets choked away a chance at the playoffs.
In 2008 he attempted 71 stolen bases, and he was better in September, though marginally. He hit .243 with 10 SB, after hitting over .300 every month from May through August.
Take those September struggles in addition to the injury concerns and you have to wonder if the Mets will once again make a conscious effort to keep Reyes planted at first base a bit more. If they do, it will certainly play a role in his potential value.
On the other hand, it is not like Rollins is a slouch on the base paths. He’s had 30 stolen bases or more every year since 2005, including three seasons over 40. He doesn’t attempt as many, but is rarely caught (in 2008 he had 47 stolen bases in 50 attempts). Last season he was caught eight times, the most since 2004. He was a perfect 10 for 10 over the last two months of the season, so I wouldn’t be concerned there.
Yes, he doesn’t run as much as Reyes, but he doesn’t need to either given the offense he has behind him (which we’ll get to later on). While he easily could reach the 35-40 stolen base plateau, the chances are, even if the reigns are put on Reyes a bit, he’s not going to match him if Reyes is healthy for the full season.
Power:
This is an easy call. Reyes isn’t much of a power hitter, with a career high of 19, now calls an extreme pitchers park home. In 147 at bats last season he managed just two home runs and double-digits is going to be considered a success for him in 2010.
In Rollins, you have a player who plays in an extreme hitters ballpark and has had 20 or more home runs in three of the last four seasons. For what he loses to Reyes in the speed department, he more than makes up for in the power department.
At this point, the two have to be considered pretty even.
Average:
Rollins struggled badly in 2009, but a lot of his problems were based on luck and not skill. He posted a BABIP of .253 last season, with most of the struggles coming in the first half (.229).
After the All-Star Break he was the same type of player he always is, hitting .272. That’s the thing, Rollins never really posts overly impressive averages. From 2004 through 2008 he had averages of .289, .290, .277, .296 and .277. It’s not that he’s a big-time strikeout guy either, it’s just that he’s never been able to parlay his speed into above average BABIP. Maybe it’s the fact that he tries to hit too many home runs or the ballpark he plays in, but at this point it’s a simple fact.
Reyes has never been much better. He’s a career .286 hitter and after hitting .300 in 2006 has posted marks of .280, .297 and .279. Will the huge field he plays in allow him to hit for a higher average?
He hit .329 in 85 at bats at home last season, but that is an awfully small sample size. It is possible for it to continue and if what we saw from David Wright in 2009 is any indication, it almost should be expected. Reyes is going to get the nod here, but really just badly.
Runs:
This is a draw, plain and simple. While Rollins has a better offense behind him, Reyes’ ability to hit for extra base hits, as well as turn his singles into doubles or triples, evens the playing field. Plus, while it’s easy to look at Ryan Howard and Chase Utley as two of the best, it’s not like David Wright and Carlos Beltran are slouches. Both players have proven that they can score a ton of runs and that should continue in 2010.
RBI:
More power generally is going to lead to more RBI. Rollins has had a year of 90, as well as 83 and 77. Reyes, meanwhile, drove in 81 back in 2006 but has proven to be more of a 60ish type guy. The extra home run power is going to mean a few extra RBI for Rollins.
Conclusion:
As you can tell, these two are extremely close, almost even, justifying how close their ADPs are thus far. While there are concerns over Reyes ability to steal bases in 2010, his potential there is the sole reason I would select him first. Outside of maybe Jacoby Ellsbury, how many players have the potential to put up numbers similar to that of Reyes? The answer, quite possibly, is no one.
While I view Rollins as a great fallback option, if I have a selection of the two, it’s going to be Reyes every time.
What about you? Which of these two would you rather have and why?
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Let me think for a minute.. Uh.. Reyes.. Even defensively he’s better, I don’t fall too much into that gold glove, coz zimmerman is better def than wright and yet wright has 2 zimm 1.. Reyes is healthy is the mets and it was obvious last year when he wasn’t around even though the mets hit 4 avg they didn’t score enough.. He’s my top 5 pick for mvp this upcoming year
So essentially, Rollins is pretty much the better player (overall) but since Reyes steals more bases he’s the better fantasy pick?
I think Reyes would be picked ahead of Rollins in most leagues. Mainly because Reyes hits for a higher average. Reyes also has more BB than Rollins. Reyes will steal more bases. Doubles are about the same. Runs are about the same. But Rollins has more HR’s RBI and less K’s than Reyes.
Rollins is porbally the safe pick. But I would choose Reyes over rollins because he has so much potential and he has been a better fantasy player than rollins over the years.
What your numbers don’t show you is that Rollins has a lot more heart than Jose Reyes and rises to the occasion. He’s done his best during the stretch drives. He’s a big spot performer
Jose Reyes is the complete opposite. Despite his exciting and explosive style of play and big triples in May he has folded during the stretch drives in 2007 and 2008 and may have helped get us there but when it was time to assist in taking us to the next level he was one of the guilty parties instrumental in our collapses.
Rollins was an instrumental part of the Phillies’s successes.
This is going to annoy a lot of people but it’s true. And don’t give that he’s still learning crap. He’s been a major league ballplayer since 2003! How many of you have gone thru High School and College during that time?
The bright side is if Alex Rodriguez can turn it around and become a clutch performer on the big stage for one season, then so can Jose Reyes.
The reason why Reyes did bad down the stertch drives in 07 and 08 is because he was overused. The Mets should not make him steal as much as in years past. If they don’t make him steal as much his numbers will imporve during the strertch run.
This response by the reader above (who likes to tail me and get a verbal beating for some reason) is the problem.
Babying and excuses – a recipe for mediocrity and accepting it.
What do you mean by tailing you? and what do you mean by verbal beating? please explain.
Reyes slowing down at the end of the season is not an excuse it is a fact. Attempting to steal 100 bases will take a great toll on a player. The Mets are not going to make him steal as much this year and you will see he will play strong down the stretch.
Stealing 100 bases a season is a hard toll? Are you kidding me? Running 90 feet flat out once a day is NOT gonna kill you!
Then why are the mets limiting his stolen base attempts? Then why does he slow down at the end of seasons? and it was not just in 07. In other years he has slowed down at the end even when there was no pressure.
chico, it was pointed out by some socalled “expert” that typically sb kings are outfielders not skills types from middle infield. even henderson was built more like a running back than a sprinter. it all combines to take a temendous toll, all those dives, etc. are exhausting i surmise, as is the nymedia francoeur mentioned how utterly spent wright was last yr as the sole rep of the core answering everryones questions & as someone recently pointed out re. comparing sanchez to other freshman qbs in balt & atl, how many mikes are they commenting in front of 4? in ny it’s 44! that’s all additional pressure & exhausting. perhaps a kc player attempting say 100 sb for a season would likely only need to grant one or two additional interviews a week to say espn,fox or mlbn, in ny, it a daily occurance game after game. added to the mental fatigue of infield leadership, it’s amazing he doesn’t ccollapse under such scrutiny. statisticly jeter really doesn’t excell over his peers in any one category with everypone prefering the socalled intangibles, now i’m not saying reyes is better than jeets by any means, however in statistics he is superior in many categories. there is no singular reason; but it’s unfortunate how we fans choose to ignore what a player does day in, day out for 140-150 games yet condemn him quickly should he fail those last dozen. ther’s certainly something wrong with that. i don’t believe it’s reyes.
Bayonne, while I agree that rollins has performed extremely heroicly in the face of opposition boos(feeds off it), I don’t have as much faith in his ability to deal with a typical,mercurial ny audience. from my point, the jury’s out on that tidbit, What reyes does do very well (ignite)isn’t subjected to that amount of pressure as few fans are harassing him while on base. a bb to reyes is a definite pressure cooking situation tight & late. I truly believe the mets’ fld mngt have fallen prey to the obvious use of castillo as #2, a waste since jose doesn’t require much help to advance, we keep wasting opportunities using luis #2 since he’s incapable of pouncing decidedly on the fat fastballs reyes on base induces. my choice is beltran #2. speed & loves the heater.
I also do not believe ramirez(fl) handles ny well. not that jose hasn’t succombed to self doubt our harassment keeps sewing; but he’s tougher to sour. i’d fear rollins may turn into milton bradley if in ny.
I will diagree that rollins is that much better than reyes. He has the rings and the gold glove but reyes controlls the direction of this team. If he gets on, they score. The problem with reyes is that he tries to hit for homeruns at times and u see a lot of pop ups and fly balls. He needs to take a step back and bunt for base hits when he doesn’t feel comfortable swinging. When he gets on, both pitchers and infields are forced to adjust to him. But I guess we’l see how things work out when the year now
Rollins is the better player, but that is meaningless. What counts is whether Reyes will be effective at his game in 2010. His comeback from surgery is one of the most important “if’s” to be determined for this team.
Mask, my understanding is the problem tendon was totally removed along with the scar tissue. superfluous tendon, usually removed for tj procedures
62, Hopefully you’r right and he’s back, but we won’t know for sure for a while. I thought pre-surgery the diagnosis was they would perform muscle repair but leave the tendon alone. But I could be wrong about that. We’ll know more as ST get underway. Just one of the many uncertainties to wait through.
mask, there were so many mistakes, missed diagoniies on ryesto make tracking them an utter jjoke! i guess the problem may be communication bet drs & trainers. i’d love to see the entire training staff replaced. they’d already did it with medical staff when omar was first hired. my wife recently has foot surgery performed by one of the top orthopedic foot surgeons in this area( works woth carolina panthers’ team) and when he noticed my met gear, he mentioned his former roommate was wotking with our team. he wouldn’t go into specifics but did mention how frustrated his friend was in a recenmt call they’d had. i floated my communication theotu & he wouldn’t comment; but did giver me an affirmative looking smile. he also was flabergasted at the extent of the injuries his friend ltanized. we’ll have to keep our fingers crossed(players shouldn’t they might injure them)(lol)