Johan Santana had long been considered the best pitcher in baseball. From 2004-2008 there wasn’t a pitcher who could touch him, posting some remarkable numbers, especially when you consider that he called the AL home up until 2008:
- Struck out 200 or more batters every season
- Had a sub-3.00 ERA in four out of five seasons (the other year saw him at 3.33)
- Posted three WHIPs of 1.00 and better (and the other two season’s saw him post marks of 1.07 and 1.15)
- Won 15 games or more every season, including years of 19 and 20
How many pitchers can boast that type of consistent success?
His 2009 season looked to be off to a similar start, going 7-2 with a 1.77 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 11.73 K/9 over 66 innings (10 starts) over the season’s first two months. Then, the wheels seemed to falloff.
He struggled in June, posting a 6.19 ERA, before recovering in July (1.82) and August (3.94). While the ERAs were still respectable, the strikeouts in those two months were down significantly (5.90) and while the WHIP was still good (1.15), he was allowing more base runners than he had been.
So, that leads us to ask, just what should we expect from Santana in 2010?
The injury that ended his season prematurely was to his elbow, an immediate red flag. Despite Santana’s claims that he would have been able to complete the season had the Mets been in contention, it still has to make you wonder. The Mets and Santana can claim that he will be ready for Spring Training, but until he takes the mound and proves that he is the same pitcher that he used to be there will be significant questions.
When it comes to fantasy owners, just how do you rank him? Clearly, he has been unearthed from the top spot (now belonging to Tim Lincecum). In fact, in our early Top 35 Fantasy Starting Pitchers (click here to view), he came in at #6, behind Lincecum, Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez, Zack Greinke and CC Sabathia.
Many believe that drafting starting pitchers early on is a mistake to begin with, feeling that you can find pitchers later on. While that strategy is sound, I am not against taking someone early on if it makes sense. If I am picking late in the second round and Tim Lincecum is sitting there, staring me in the face, I’m not going to be able to turn him down. He’s a lights out starting pitcher, almost a guarantee to post a sub-3.00 ERA and 250 Ks in a season. That’s just not something that you will “find” in the later rounds.
When it comes to Santana, at this point, you just don’t know what you are going to get so to gamble on him in the early rounds is an extreme risk. While he could return to his Cy Young ways, especially in the confines of CitiField, how do we know for sure that he is completely over his injury?
That’s not to say that I think he’s a bad risk, because he’s not. I truly believe that he’s going to regain his form and be a dominant starting pitcher, but in the first four and a half rounds on draft day, it is going to be extremely difficult to pull the trigger.
If he’s still sitting on the board at that point, however, it would really depend on how the first few rounds went to determine if I’d select him. It certainly would be a very realistic possibility.
How about you? Will you be targeting Santana on draft day? How high are you willing to take him?
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I say wait until you see what kind of supporting cast is brought aboard. If the Mets fail to give him a better offensive cast then I won’t really expect to much from him. You are only as good as your team. While I’m not like the rest of you that think we need an entire overhal, I do think we need a power bat in the outfield and a solid first baseman. Get Johan that and I’ll take him his predicted 6th. The other players are better choices without question.
Depends how highly you value wins and peripherals. Santana’s peripheral stats, like ERA and WHIP have generally been better than CC’s, and his K’s (though declining), have generally been better than Halladay. CC’s going to get more Wins with the Yankees lineup, and Halladay gets a lot of decisions because he goes deep, so more wins and losses for him.
The big concerns is that we don’t know for sure how good he’ll be next year; and with the Mets, the bullpen and defense are always an unforseeable circumstance that could take wins away.
I agree with Lincy, Felix, and Greinksta at the top, but I’m not as high on Halladay. I think Lincy’s a 1st rounder, while Felix and Greinke are 2nd rounders. Halladay could join them in the 2nd if he goes to the NL.
So the gameble comes in whether you trust Johan’s peripherals to be better than CC’s, with the Wins comparable close, as well as whether you trust him to be strong for the full season, as opposed to #7 on the list, Haren.
If he’s in still there 3rd RD, I’d definitely take him, as he’s a 1st rounder when healthy.
I’ll take him second round.
Honestly, I have high hopes for Felix. I took him in the 2nd round last year. Felix could very well be my first rounder this year. I like taking risks. If Santana drops below third round, something might be wrong, lol.