17
2009
Is Signing Lackey A Smarter Move Than Trading For Halladay?
An article by 
Let me begin by saying that you’ll get no argument from me as to who is the superior starting pitcher between Roy Halladay and John Lackey. Obviously, it’s Halladay and it’s not even close. If Doc was pitching for a high powered offense like the Yankees, he may have been a 25 game winner this season, and the one before that, and the one before that too. He is a tremendous talent who is worthy of all the consideration by bloggers everywhere who all wish their teams could somehow pry him away from the Blue Jays.
Toronto’s newest GM made it very clear that Halladay could be traded if he is blown away by an offer. Ahh, interesting choice of words. Exactly what does “blown away” mean?
Did the Mets blow the Twins away when they sent Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber, Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey for Johan Santana? By the looks of those names, certainly not, but the Mets did make the best offer and that was good enough for the Twins, the Mets, and me.
Readers of this blog know it’s no secret how much I cover Halladay. I wanted the Mets to get him when they were just 4.5 games out of a playoff spot and it was no secret he was available before the trade deadline.
Halladay has already stated that he has no problem waiving his no-trade clause in exchange for a fat extension. So in that regard, he’s not a rental. If you make the trade, you get the negotiating window and Halladay is yours for at least five years and most likely six.
Based on recent contracts for pitchers of his caliber, a 6-year deal could easily average $23 million dollars per season or more. Damn, that’s a lot of cash…
Are you willing to blow the Blue Jays away with a package of major leaguers and your best prospects just for the privilege of dishing out $140 million dollars to a bona-fide ace who will turn 32 next May?
There’s an old saying that comes to mind, and it seems somewhat appropriate right now; Don’t Keep All You Eggs In One Basket.
Imagine the Mets having to pay two of their starting pitchers nearly $50 million dollars a season. Great starting pitchers? No doubt, but what a stranglehold on the rest of the teams payroll, especially with Reyes and Beltran soon to become free agents barring an extension. I haven’t even raised the specter of God forbid one of them suffers an arm injury and requires surgery. How do you manipulate a payroll when almost one third of it is tied up in two players?
The more I ponder the situation, the more I look at John Lackey.
To begin, he would cost the Mets nothing in terms of players. Heck the Mets don’t even have to give up a first round pick to sign him. Plus, from a contractual standpoint, most are speculating a deal that could top what A.J. Burnett got last season, but not by much. We’re talking 5 years at $18 million per, tops.
I didn’t even get into who the Mets would have to give up to get Halladay, but you could expect Mike Pelfrey, Ike Davis, Josh Thole and Jenrry Mejia to all be bandied about and ultimately packaged. That caviar sounds a little bit too rich for my taste.
After careful consideration, it’s now my belief that signing John Lackey (and making sure that the Mets win any bidding war) would be the best way for the Mets to go.
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
Went to my first Mets game, a Mayors Trophy game at Shea, in '73. We beat the Yankees 8-4 and I was hooked. I marched in two Banner Day parades, and before the Grand Slam single, there was the "Hendu Can Do" grand slam - I was there. I've collected Mets memorabilia all my life and started Mets Merized Online to feed my addiction.
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First of all,Halladay i believe is the best pitcher in baseball bar none.I agree if he pitched on the yankees or phillies the last couple years he would have won 25 games each year,or if Toronto had a better pen.But anyway,i think the Met organization should not sell the farm,even though he is worth it.Lackey is not going to cost propects,only money.Also there are other freeagent pitchers after Lackey.So if you could sign Lackey for Burnett money,then sign Marquis,or Wolf at 2year 18-20 million the starting staff,would be better.It would also give our young guys more time in the minors.Next year we go after Halladay if he is still available.With signing Lackey and the others we could have a stronger staff right threw.
Santana-Lackey-Marquis-Pelfrey-Perez or Niese -NIEVE-Figuera in the pen
K-rod-(8th inning) MAINE-Parnell-Feliciano-Stokes-Bostick
STEVE, YOU HAD ME ALL THE WAY TO THE 8th INNING MENTION OF MAINE. I’M FIRST CONCERNED A MOVE OF MAINE TO THE PEN, ESP SETUP WOULD BE TANTAMOUNT TO CREATING A HEILMAN REPLICANT. BESIDES HOW CAN ANYONE SUGGEST A SP WHO’S JUST SUFFERED THROUGH HIS FIRST MAJOR INJURY, BADLY & COUNTING ON HIM FOR REPEATED USEAGE. WHERE TO WE MAIL HIS ARM ONCE IT ACTUALLY FALLS OFF. PERSONALLY I’D PREFER A REINKING OF PUTZ, IF AS HEALTHY AS REPORTS INDICATE. AT LEAST WE KNOW, HE’S AWARE OF WHAT ‘NORMAL’ ARM FATIGUE FEELS LIKE TO DIFFERENTIASTE BETWEEN SOMETHING U ACTUALLY PITCH THROUGH & SOMETHING U SHUT DOWN BECAUSE OF. I’M NOT CONVINCED JOHNNY MAINE KNOWS THE DIFFERENCE & TENDS TO BE A TAD OVERCAUTIOUS IN THESE MATTERS NOW HE’S ACTUALLY BEEN INJURED. PERSONALLY, I EVALUATE MAINE HIGHER THAN PELF FROM A CURRENT PERFORMANCE LEVEL WHILE WHEN CONSIDERING POTENTIAL MY NOD GOES TO PELF FOR GREATER CEILING IN THAT REGARD. I’VE STATED EMPHATICALLY MY WILLINGNESS TO DEAL BOTH IN THE SAME PKG TO BREWS FOR PRINCE, REPLACING THEM WITH A LACKEY or HALLADAY AS WELL AS MARQUIS FOR #3 IN MY STRONG ROTATION. MAINE’S LAST START WAS A TREMENDOUS WEIGHT OFF OF HIS FRAGILE EGO. IT IS MY STYRONGEST BELIEF THAT BOTH MAINE & PELFREY WERE PHYSICALLY HELPED & CONFIDENCE DAMAGED BY PETERSON’S INFLUENCE. NEITHER CREDITED THEMSELVES RATHER RICK FOR THEIR SUCCESSES. A REUNION IS LIKELY BEST FOR BOTH FOR CURRENT POERFORMANCE LEVELS YET DETRIMENTAL LONGTERM.
You make a very compelling argument Joe D. I love Halladay and would like nothing better than to see him in a Mets uniform, but you have given me pause to think with this post and now I find myself leaning more toward Lackey. Suffice it to say that I would be happy with either one, but it’s clear that Halladay will be very costly and could hurt us in the long run. Maybe as Steve says, it would be better to see if he makes it to free agency after the 2010 season.
I agree Halladay is a better pitcher but Lackey is the better option for the Mets (In My Opinion). The Mets won’t have to give up any players and long term Halladay will probably cost more money. Money the Mets can use elsewhere. If the Mets fill their needs properly they can win with Lackey at the top of the rotation along with Santana. That is, if they fill their needs properly….
And u don’t think other teams are thinking the same thing? Sorry people, with a lot of teams bidding and maybe overpaying for Lackey, I still trade for Halliday, the Yankees will be in on Lackey as well, Mets are not outbidding all these teams for lackey, sorry guys i trade for the better pitcher which is Halliday, I trade Pelfrey, Martinez, Mejjia and either Flores or Tejada and get Halliday, let all the other teams outbid each other and overpay for Lackey.
I see your point but the flip side to that is other teams might have better players to trade for Halladay and could give Toronto a better offer. One way or the other (Lackey or Halladay) the Mets are going to have to outbid someone to get either player.
Do you really think those 4 bring in Halladay? FMart is currently damaged goods. Flores, Tejada and Mejia are years away. Plus Mejia has been stinking in winter ball. The likelihood is that trade will most likely have to be richer. Probably needs to be upped to something like Pelfrey, Parnell, Murphy or Davis, Tejada and Holt. Now do you still want to do it or overpay somewhat for Lackey?
I still do it,i would never overpay for Lackey and give him 6 yrs and 80 to 100 mil, he has been on the DL 3 times over the last 2 yrs, no thanks, and if the yankees are in on Lackey ur not getting him anyway.
Those players would be laughed at. Toronto said they wanted a major leaguer and 3 other major league ready prospects.
F-Mart 2-3 years away plus he hasnt played more than 75 games since 2004
Mejia 4-5 years away plus he sucking ass in AFL
Tejada 4-5 years away plus he sucked in AA
Flores 5+ years, he’s 17 for crying out loud!!!
That’s your offer??? For the best pitcher in baseball???? Get real dude!
I remember reading what Toronto wanted in the Toronto star, they wanted a young major league SP(pelfrey), a top pitching prospect(holt or Mejjia), a top OF prospect(martinez) and a top SS prospect(Flores or Tejada) all these qualify, check out baseball america for top prospects, there all there and by the way Toronto, like the twins a couple years ago may not have a choice, was Gomez, Mulvey and whomever the other 2 players were good enough, no, but the Twins didn’t have a choice because Santana wanted to go to Boston or the 2 NY teams, and the Twins were not trading him to the Yankees or Boston so he could come back and pitch against them, same thing here.
[...] D from Mets Merized Online prefers that the Mets John Lackey over Roy [...]
The difference is Halliday as a full no-trade clause and Jon Heyman said yesterday on Wfan, that Halliday wants to stay on the East Coast and wants to go to a team that trains in Florida, he lives in Dunedin Florida in the off-season. He will not accept a trade to the west coast, he said he would accept a trade to the mets, that is confirmed from Heyman, like Santana he will not accept a trade unless he gets and extension from the team he is traded to. Also, Toronto will not trade him within the division, meaning he is not going to the Red Sox or Yankees. Philly is not going to trade for him, there more focused on 3b(figs, derosa and Beltre) and the bullpen needs, also they have enough trouble trying to re-sign Cliff Lee and preventing him from becoming a FA. All these teams will be bidding hard on Lackey so they won’t have to trade for a pitcher, only when 1 team can win the bidding, the yankees are in on Lackey, the mets are not beating the Yankees in a bidding war for Lackey. Toronto wants to trade him out of the division, but Halliday wants wants to stay on the East Coast, so u put all that together, none of the better farm system teams like the yankees, boston, phillies anaheim, texas, arizona, dodgers, they all will not be involved,so who does that leave? East Coast, big market, team capable of winning……The mets.
The Mets and Yankees have managed to stay out of bidding wars in the last few years, but in the two most recent them mets them for Beltran and Santana.
Second, the Toronto GM said he WOULD DEFINITELY trade Halladay to the yankees or red sox if their offer was the best one. I dont know where you got the idea that they wouldnt.
Halladay said his preference was the east cost but that it was not a deal breaker as long as he got an extension that was what was most important.
correction: the Mets beat* them for Beltran and Santana.
The Yankees were never in on Beltran and they never made a offer for Santana, they stayed out of it, the only way the Yankees ever would have got in on Santana is if Boston got in it and they never did, Beltran offered to take 20 million less to go to the Yankees and the Yankees never responded, the yankees never made an offer for beltran, they decided going after Randy Johnson was more feasible then Beltran.
Good points as well Kevin and I remember reading that as well. Perhaps it IS a lot longer road to the finish line than Anthony made it to seem. Real life is never quite that easy.
He can say all he wants, JP Riccardi said the same thing, I will bet money on it, Toronto will never, ever trade Halliday to the Yankees or Red Sox so Halliday can come back, pitch against them 4 times a year and get the CG’s vs them, no chance, I’ll bet money on it.
Ricciardi did NOT say the same thing. In fact he was lambasted by the press and got fired because he refused to consider the Red Sx at the trade deadline and admitted he wouldnt trade him to the Yankees. I dont really know where you get your news from.
He said he would trade Halliday to the red sox and yankees, but he never did, did he……same thing will happen here, yankees and red sox will not pursue Halliday unless the other one gets involved. Yankees will outbid everyone else and sign Lackey without giving up any players in trade and the red sox will sign Harden and Chapman, u watch. When that happens, what other east coast is there for halliday to get traded to….not the phillies there going for 3b and bullpen needs…
He didnt trade Halladay at all, that doesnt prove your point.
The Phillies have been and still are the favorites to land Halladay. They have what Toronto craved, Kyle Drabek. At the dealine the Phillies said no way, but last week Heyman said that with Lee in the house the Phillies will make another play for Halladay because in essence the groundwork is still there and Drabek will be included, along with the other players that were discuseed. Drabek is better than any top 3 Mets pitching prospects put together. Haap is better than Pelfrey who was also rumored to be in the deal.
But Kevin, the question is…would Roy waive his no-trade to go to a home-run hitters heaven like CBP ?
will Philly commit 23 million a year, with Lee coming up for free-agencye…with Rollins coming up for free-agency…and Howard coming up for free-agency…followed up shortly by Hamels…and with a leaky bullpen now that Lidge is not such a sure thing…
Will Philly also trade the potential replacements for all 3 players listed…
It might be simpler for them to just sign Lackey…otherwise they are making their window to win, that much shorter…
Anthony, Good post. If the Mets are his target team, then let’s go for it. Omar better be prepared to negotiate tough with Toronto but still win the trophy.
And yes those players would get em.
How do you conclude a deal that only has Pelfrey as a known entity, coupled with FMart returning from surgery, Mejia who is years away and currently stinking, and either Flores or Tejada gets it done? Those 4 don’t seem good enough to me.
Toronto, like the twins a couple years ago may not have a choice, was Gomez, Mulvey and whomever the other 2 players were good enough, no, but the Twins didn’t have a choice because Sanatana wanted to go to Boston or the 2 NY teams, and the Twins were not trading him to the Yankees or Boston so he could come back and pitch against them, same thing here.
Let’s hope you’re right and Omar can swing a strong deal. I think it will need to be better guys than your first 4 named above though. Pelfrey is a must because Maine is an injury risk and Ollie is not marketable. The other 3 are going to have to be decent players such as Parnell, Murphy, and Thole. Maybe we can sneak in something like Green instead of Parnell. I’d rather let Murphy go than Davis. Maybe we can sneak Holt instead of Thole. But it will claerly require some pain on our end to get Halladay. If we let Murphy go, Davis will have to be accelerated. If we Thole go, then we will have to sign Molina. If we let Parnell go, it seems Maine moves to BP and then we need another starter. Trading for Halladay will require a number of follow-up moves to adjust to fill holes that are created. But then we have Santana and Halladay. This offseason seems to have a lot in the offing.
Like I said I think Halliday and a bunch of Grinders like Molina, Hudson and Pierre will be on the mets next year, along with Biemel, Glaus to complement murphy and a guy like Brad Penny is the other SP we get.
All of you make great points, but just remember, no one thought the Mets had a prayer in obtaining Johan Santana since both the Yankess and Red Sox were interested. Since both teams interest may have been due to preventing the other getting him, and then neither stepped up since it appeared the other wasn’t, the same can be said for Halliday. Not so much as with the Phillies, but they have less financial means to do more than possibly drive up the asking price in talent, since they have to consider Lee beyond 2010 as well as several other in their prime position players. I also believe that the asking price in talent may not be as much as you might think, as the possible packages offered at the trading deadline were not exactly overwhelmingly blue chip, and he is one year closer to free agency. Pelf, Mejia, Parnell, FMart, and either Flores,Tejada or Holt should get it done. Ike Davis would probably not be included, as Toronto already has a stud ready to take over for Overbay (sorry,forgot his name). the Mets are a team (how many years have we been saying this) that are built to win now, since our ace is not getting any younger, and our core of Wright,Reyes, and Beltran have contracts that can expire before the kids on the farm fully develop. I do see both sides of the issue here, but feel that if in fact the Yankess,Boston,Philles, and the CA teams feel they are better served going after a free agent that will require less money short term as well as long, and don’t have to give up ANY talent, we might be able to get Halliday as we did Santana, with a lesser package then original thought. If getting Halliday requires more talent because of either Toronto’s demands or because of competition from the other clubs mentioned, then the Mets would be better off directing their attention to Lackey, and an additional #3 type of pitcher. I read somewhere about a trade with the Reds for Aroyo ($ cutting) and B.Philips. that might be a good move regardless of Lackey or Halliday, assuming they can move Castillo, which it sounds like the odds are a little better now that he had a decent 09.
It’s not a matter of whether the Mets COULD get Roy Hallady, it’s a question of whether they SHOULD.
Kevin, that’s just samantics. My point is if you were actually the GM of the Mets, obviously you would have to make a decision on if you SHOULD go after Halliday or not, so that’s a given . When King Albert becomes a free agent(if he doesnt sign an extention with St.louis), are you going to wonder IF they SHOULD go after him, or might it be first more REALISTIC to see if you actually COULD go after him. I think that before you could decide if you SHOULD,you must first look at if you realistically COULD. This means is he truely available to me (would Toronto except my proposal, and would Roy except to play in NY and in the NL). If Toronto wants no part of my trade, or Halliday wants no part of NY, then there is no SHOULD, because there is no COULD. For the record, I believe they COULD and so SHOULD. Partly because I believe the package it will take will be less damaging to the Farm System than most, due to the lack of desire of Yanks,RSox,Phils,LAD & LAA to give up the talent and then subsequent dollars it would take to secure Roy. Partly because I believe that of all the teams mentioned in the mix, the Mets are the ONLY team NOT considered a Playoff Caliber Franchise, and NEEDS him. All the other teams could use a pitcher like Halliday but they don’t NEED him. They all have a 1-2 punch that can sustain them through a Playoff Series without adding a pitcher,right now, for the Mets, after Johan,what????. After the last three years, the Mets are in a position that they MUST play significant games in OCTOBER, as September won’t cut it anymore. SHOULD the Mets go after Lackey, who would cetainly help, but could also go 15-12 or go after Halliday who could realistically go 20-8 (not to mention his impact on the bullpen and the renewed interest bringing him in would create for futre Free Agent signings). It all depends mostly on IF they COULD.
Can the Phillies realistickly sign both Lee and halliday and prevent then from becoming FA’s?? The answer is no. That is why there focusing on Figgins, Derosa and Beltre for 3b and there bullpen issues.
Trade the scrubs (except Davis), fork over the cash and get Halliday. Hell, when he is forty he will be a 7 inning pitcher. Right now he is an 8-9 inning pitcher ACE. Given the published salary numbers the METs had about 30 mil to spend after raises, they declined Putz so they have a net 5 more mil to spend. If they can move or wash out Castillo with a Phllips (2b) type deal, they get power and steals back and probably another 13 mil in payroll for Arroyo and a slight bump on Phllips deal. So 6 years 22 mil for Halliday, 13 mil for Arroyo, that’s 25 mil annualized, get Dye to play left for 6 mil… that’s 31 mil so far… and use the rest for pen, a right handed hitter (like Garko)at 1b or an incentive deal for Delagdo, a catcher and bench players on minor league deals. Salary will bump up to around 150 mil but the team will be better.
Santana, Halliday, Arroyo, Maine, Perez
Reyes, Phillips, Wright, Beltran, Delgado, Dye, Francour and Molina or another catcher.
Honestly I think we should not get either Halladay or Lackey. I think we should go after HOLLIDAY so we can also get pitchers with him. If we get Lackey, we probably will not get a left fielder. But if we get HOLLIDAY, we will probably be able to afford at least 2 of the pretty good pitchers I am interested in, Randy Wolf, Joel Pineiro, and Jason Marquis, all coming off almost as good years as Lackey.
So would you rather have HOLLIDAY and lets say Marquis and PIniero, or just Lackey or just Halladay. But if I have to go with either Halladay or Lackey I would definentely go with Lackey because Lackey costs less money, is younger, and does not cost lots of prospects. The only way the Blue Jays would trade Halladay is if we include Davis in a deal, and something tells me Davis might end up being our next great prospect, because he actually has stats to prove he is good, not just a lot of hype like Fernando Martinez.
[...] D from Mets Merized Online prefers that the Mets John Lackey over Roy [...]
better to buy than trade, unlesss you are trading Castillo.