John Lackey? Roy Halladay? Both are All-Star caliber pitchers. Both could elevate the Mets to the level where we expect them to be. Signing Lackey and trading for Halladay would look lovely, but we know that’s not happening. After all, the Wilpons are our owners. Acquiring one of the two appears to be the more likely scenario.
As Joe D stated in a blog earlier today, John Lackey might be the wiser choice because he would be a less expensive option than Halladay, is 1½ years younger and wouldn’t cost the Mets all the players they’d have to give up in exchange for Halladay. I agree with all of Joe D’s points but I’ve looked into it a little deeper and found another reason why the Mets would be better off with Lackey instead of Halladay. It’s something that has been overlooked by many but is quite relevant considering that whoever they acquire would be switching leagues.
Roy Halladay has a phenomenal career record. Since making his debut for the Blue Jays in 1998, his career record is 148-76 (.661 winning percentage), with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. If Halladay was traded to the Mets, he’s be facing primarily National League teams. His career numbers against NL teams are fairly similar to his overall career numbers. Against the senior circuit, Halladay owns a .680 winning percentage (17-8) with a 3.02 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP.
If the Mets were to trade for Halladay instead of signing Lackey, it would make sense that Halladay should be far better than Lackey against National League teams. After all, how would Halladay’s 20-4 career record against the Baltimore Orioles be relevant as a member of the New York Mets? When looking at Lackey’s career numbers against National League teams, it might come as a surprise that not only is Lackey on par with Halladay, he’s actually better than him.
Lackey has been in the majors for less time than Halladay, as his major league debut didn’t come until 2002. However, against the teams that the Mets would facing in the National League, Lackey is 12-4 (.750 winning perecentage) with a 2.63 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. By comparison, Johan Santana was 16-4 with a 2.26 ERA against National League teams while he was a member of the Minnesota Twins. In his first year in the National League with the Mets, he led the league in ERA with his 2.53 mark.
Roy Halladay’s career numbers make him seem like a better pick over John Lackey. But when looking at career records, the only relevant numbers to consider are the ones against foes the Mets would be facing. If Lackey has been more effective against National League teams than Halladay has, when you combine that with his age, the less expensive price tag, the lack of players given up to acquire him and (lest we forget) the postseason experience he has that Halladay doesn’t have, it should be clear that Lackey’s the man.
Great point Ed! I never thought of comparing their records against the NL and it’s obviuosly something that should be considered.
It hasn’t been talked about much, but I wonder if K-Rod can help influence his former teammate Lackey to consider the Mets? Sort of like how Castillo warmed Santana up to the idea of the Mets.
Ed, Your logic is good but has one shortcoming. That is all those pithers have the bulk of their performance records against AL teams. Their NL records constititute small sample size and, I don’t believe, have validity in statistial significance. I am not even a sabremetrician saying that, just a retired engineer who did a lot of statistical analysis during his work career. I just wouldn’t conclude from that sample size that Lackey is the better pitcher against NL clubs. The only thing I would conclude is that you would expect both of them to pitch better than their career performance records because of lack of the DH in the NL and they will be pitching to pitchers for 1/9 of the at-bats they face.
I understand what you’re saying. (I have a degree in math and do statistical analysis for a living as well. Math geeks rule!) It’s true that these pitchers have pitched far less against NL teams than AL teams. Lackey has pitched 161 career innings against National League teams. In 2008, he pitched 163.1 innings for the Angels and this past season, he pitched 173.1 innings, so his career numbers against National League teams are approximately one full season’s worth of numbers. If a pitcher can go 12-4 with a 2.63 ERA in a full season, he’d certainly be a guy I’d want on the Mets.
It was just last year that the Mets signed Tim Redding and they cited his career record against the Phillies as one of the reasons why they got him. His sample size (5-3 record in 65.2 innings prior to 2009) was far smaller than the one I used for Lackey.
OK, it is a datapoint, but not an overwhelming one since their performance records against the NL favor Lackey, but not all that much. It is an argument in his favor, however as you point out.
MASK, YOUR POINTS ARE VALID; BUT ONE THING WE ALL CAN AGREE UPON IS THAT EITHER OF THESE 2 SPARKLING GEMS ARE DIAMONDS THAT WILL IMMEDIATELY MAKE A SIGNIFICANT UPGRADE TO OUR ON THE FIELD PRODUCT.
THAT BEING SAID, I PREFER LACKEY FOR WHAT HE DOESN’T DO; BUT THAT HALLADAY IS MORE LIKELY TO DEMAND, “A LONGTERM UNYIELDY CONTRACT COMPLETE WITH FULL NO-TRADE PROTECTION, MAKING 3 OF THEM ON THE METS’ BOOKS IN SANTANA,BELTRAN,HALLADAY. NOT TERRIBLY LONG AGO OUR CROSSTOWN NEIGHBORS FOUND THEMSELVES IN SIMILAR CONTERACTUAL VISEGRIPS AS HAD BOSTON AT ONE POINT OR ANOTHER. FLEXIBILITY BEGETS VIABILITY. 3 SUCH MONSTERS WILL STIFLE THAT FLEXIBILITY DOWN THE ROAD. A CONSTANT REMINDER AS TO THE VOLATILITY OF GREATNESS SHOULD ALWAYS REMAIN JERRY KOOSMAN WHO AT AGE 34 COMPILED HIS FIRST 20W SEASON IN 1976 (21-10) 2.69 IN 32 GS AND WHO IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWED IT UP WITH HIS FIRST 20L SEASON AT AGE 35 IN 1977 GOING 8-20 3.49 IN 32 GS. AS A POINT OF INTEREST BOTH HALLADAY & LACKEY WOULD BE NYM UNDER A NEW NY CONTRACT AS THAT AGE AT AGE 33 & 32 RESPECTIVLY STARTING 2010 SEASON.
Interesting, but there is one more variable that wasn’t accounted for. In inter-league play, teams don’t play the same set of teams. They often play their rival more than any other team. For example, the Mets always play the Yankees (six games) and the Red Sox. I don’t believe the Phillies played the Yankees during the season until this year. That example is, of course, comparing what AL teams the Mets played vs. the Phillies.
So you have to look at what Lackey and Halladay faced in the National League. Maybe one of them played a much better subset of teams (in the NL) than the other.
I believe we would have to overpay severely in cash or in players and cash to achieve either outcome. Nobody wants to play for this team. Unless, of course, the cash register speaks. We will have to resign Halladay for megabucks or pay Lackey oodles more than he might get from Texas.
Several people with knowledge of the situation like Olney and Cafardo all say that Lackey will not even surpass the $82 million Burnett got, even if there is a bidding war. Just because Lackey is the best available pitcher, it doesnt mean he’s an ace or gets paid like one. The bidding war argument is ridiculous and totally overblown. Smarten’ up people.
Breaking News! 2 Items!
Figgins Might Be Too Expensive For Phillies
15th November, 2009 – 7:04 pm
MLB.com – The Phillies are in the market for a new third baseman.
They love Chone Figgins, but he is probably out of their price range. It’s rumored that he is commanding a five-year, $50 million contract.
As previously reported, Philadelphia is looking at Adrian Beltre, Mark DeRosa and Placido Polanco.
The Phillies already have $106.75 million committed to just 12 players next season. [READ]
Mets, Red Sox Looking Into Lackey’s Health
15th November, 2009 – 6:47 pm
MLB.com – The Mets and Red Sox are among the teams interested in free-agent right-hander John Lackey.
Lackey has dealt with various arm injuries in each of the last two seasons, which has forced the Mets and Sox to look deep into his health.
In addition to the Mets and Red Sox, the Yankees and Brewers are known suitors for Lackey as well. [READ]
Damn thats a lot of cash for just 12 players. Using average salary, it would cost them $60-$65 million to fill the other 13 spots. You have to figure at least six of those players will be filled by minimum salary guys which adds up to 3 million. So even if they still went average salary on last 7 spots, it’s 35 million which puts them at $145 million.
It doesnt look like they could afford to go after any big names like Figgins and company.
Good info Anthony.
Just because LACKEY is 1 1/2 years younger than Halladay doesn’t excuse the fact he has had arm injuries the last couple of years.It was nice of you show Halladay was 20-4 against Baltimore.But he has a great record against the Yankees and also RED-Sox.The 1 team he struggles against is Tampa.Age shouldnt factor in too the equation.Production and Quality do,Halladay is by far Superior.Plus pitches deeper into games.
I really do believe John Lackey would be a great fit for us but I believe we should forget Halladay; He’s overrated. When was the last time the Jays were ligitimate post season threats? Get Lackey and Pineiro to address our pitching staff. Last year we failed to pick up Manny who wanted to come to New York; this year we need to go in hard for Holliday (the outfielder) who also wants to come to New York. If we can’t go there why not Jason Bay; he was a cornerstone player for the Pirates proved to be an all-star why’s he being overlooked? Catcher never overlook a Molina brother; hands down the best defensive catchers in the majors. And yes re-sign Delgado…Imagine This Lineup behind any pitcher:
SS: Jose Reyes
2B: Luis Castillo
3B: David Wright
CF: Carlos Beltran
1B: Carlos Delgado
LF: Holliday / Bay
RF: Jeff Francouer
C: Bengie Molina
If I’m a pitcher I’m taking a big gulp before hitting the mound…