Yesterday, a heated yet spirited debate occurred on the MMO Chat between myself and two readers. The key points in the “debate,” were the fact that they believed two things to be true,
#1 David Wright had a bad season
#2 People who use stats do not know baseball.
Now, I’ve heard both points from various people, so this shouldn’t be seen as a reply to them, so much as it’s a reply to these outlandish opinions that a small group of fans have.
Let’s start with the second statement actually. Since the book Moneyball came out (which wasn’t written by Billy Beane, even though people who haven’t read it like to say that.) there has been a war between baseball fans. That war has pit Statistical Analysis versus Gut Instinct.
Here is where the gut instinct FAN is totally wrong in their arguments. First, they rely on this notion that because somebody uses stats to back up their point of view, that means they do not know the sports. Second, the reason stats are a vital part of baseball evaluating is because if you use the correct ones, they do not lie.
An everyday fan remembers select at bats, or select moments and that is how they evaluate a player. There is not a General Manager in the sport that does that. You show me a GM that refers to specific games when deciding if he wants a player based on talent, and I’ll show you a GM that can’t get a job in Pittsburgh.
Statistical Analysis has changed the entire game of baseball, like it or not. According to a recent Buster Olney article, almost all teams are relying on hired statistical analysts to evaluate talent, especially within the free agent market.
When the great debaters try to tell somebody that stats don’t matter, what they do not understand is they themselves are using stats to justify their argument. Stats matter because they tell the ENTIRE story of a player, not just a chapter. What fans need to do is learn how to read stats. Learn that OPS is not a silly stat, and it’s no coincidence the players who just were named MVP’s were #1/#2 in OPS. That’s not an accident.
There was a quote in Joe Torre’s book that I will likely mis-quote because I don’t have it in front of me. However, when it referred to the new age of statistical analysts, it said. When you are planning to invest money into the stock market, would you rather go with the guy who has a gut feeling about a stock; or would you rather go with the guy who shows you statistics. Those statistics show your previous years performance or lack thereof. Who are you going to invest your $ with?
This brings me to David Wright. The statement was said that David Wright had a “crappy season.” Also, that David Wright is not clutch. Now, first of all, who was that guy who plays in New York who for years people said he wasn’t clutch? Oh right, it was Alex Rodriguez. Remind me again how he did this post-season?
The term “clutch,” really only applies to a select number of players in the sport. A winning player plays in 162 games before he can play in the post-season. What David Wright is awful at lately is hitting with runners in scoring position and 2 outs. That is a perfectly legitimate argument. Granted, the only way to prove it is to use stats, but hey we’ll let that slide.
To say David Wright had a bad 2009 season is more evidence of a negative fan base than a statement of his season. David Wright had a better 2009 season than almost every 3B in the National League. You can get on him because he didn’t hit “homeruns”, but he still performed at a higher level than most others at his position. Let’s not forget, David Wright was hitting in front of and behind AAA talent in most cases.
You can’t argue with this stat if you’re being fair. Only two 3B’s in the entire sport got on base more than David Wright. Wright was on base 39% of the time. Those other two were Alex Rodriguez, and Chone Figgins. Then, of those three, Wright out slugged Figgins, and hit for a better average.
David Wright didn’t have a good season because all you remember is a 2 out at bat with a runner on third in which he failed. You the fan, casually forget about the over .300 average when runners are in scoring position.
There is no doubt, absolutely no doubt that David Wright needs to improve on his ability to produce runs when he has two strikes against him, or when he has runners in scoring position and two outs. I’m not denying that. What I am saying is, that isn’t the entire season. There are 20+ teams in the sport that would gladly take David Wright’s 2009 season over their third baseman’s 2009 season.
Currently, in the sport, there are only two third basemen that I would rather have playing the hot corner over David Wright based on talent. Those would be Alex Rodriguez, and Evan Longoria. After that, you can toss Michael Young, and Ryan Zimmerman in a hat with David Wright, and you’d get roughly the same performance. (Pablo Sandoval had an amazing season, but let me just see how he does in his second full year first.)
The final point to make is that David Wright is turning 27 years old in a month. He plays one of the most important defensive positions in the entire game, and he’s near the head of the class at that position. The guy has about a three year window before you can seriously tell me he is a flawed player, or he is not “clutch.” He’s just entering the prime of his career by age standards, and what he’s done already far surpasses what most players his age can and have done. He’s not going anywhere, so you might as well start liking him and get off his back, or pick another team.
*Mets Merized Online Needs Your Help*
Great article.Sure maybe David had a bad season?But if he had Reyes on base and Beltran or Delgado hitting behind him he would have done better.The one problem i see with David is he tries too hard.Which is valiant but in baseball trying harder doesnt give you more success.Personally would like to see him try hitting the ball more to the opposite side of the field when he has 2 strikes.I thought he was trying to pull the ball too much.I also feel Murphy is alot like David,without as much power.If the Mets were healthy he also would have had better numbers.But there is too much pressure these 2 players put on them selves.Hopefully in 2010 they can relax knowing they dont have to lead all by themselves,and just let the lineup roll.The next guy will get the hit.
i agree with you, Steve, and with Jessep. i like David Wright, and think he’s a great profile’ for the Franchise. But he had a ‘bad’ 2009 compared to any other of his full years in the Majors on a ‘power’ productivity basis, by far.
Wright played his 5th full season in the Majors in ‘09. His HR/AB productivity markedly worsened last year versus the average of his full prior seasons: a HR ever 53.5x AB last year vs a HR every 20.7x on average over his first 4 full years; a strikeout every 3.8x AB last year vs every 5.2x in his first 4 years; an RBI every 7.4x AB last year vs 5.3x in his first 4 years. A 4-yr OPS AVG of .928 vs .837 last year.
His productivity rates were incredibly consistent in the 05 – 08 seasons.
David Wright is a gamer, a great asset for the team, but he did have a far less productive year in 2009 than in any other year of his career.
i attribute the reasons to: 1) the demise of the team via injuries; 2) the increased pressure on the guy; 3) CitiField’s nutty dimensions; and 4) injuries.
And re injuries, i’m not just talking about the beaning; before the beaning i think the guy played hurt. i vaguely recall a couple of hard hits he took running/sliding into bases….a knee, a rib..? i dunno, but i bet ’something’ bothered him over the course of 2009.
But i agree Wright’s a great team guy and a role model for the kids. Here’s hoping he and the team compile ’stats’ next year more akin to career averages and to winning baseball.
Maybe david did perform better than a lot of other 3Bs, but a lot of teams did not need their 3B to perform well, and the mets did. The phils do not need a big year out of Pedro Feliz. It is not just the position, it is the person. David is one of the big three. just like utley and Rollins and Howard. Comparing teams and players by position does not tell the story. The mets do not have a 1B like Howard or a 2B like Utley. I think it is more accurate to compare him to other 3 and 4 hitters in the league. I believe he would come up a little short there.
jdon, you’re my new best friend. Lets see how Wright compares to Joe Mauer, Adrian Gonzalez, Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, Kendry Morales, Mark Teixeira, Hanley Ramirez and all the other teams top core players.
If the Mets had Miguel Cabrera or Adrian Gonzalez at first base instead of the inept Daniel Murphy, what Wright did or didn’t do would be a mute point. If we had Matt Holliday, Jason Bay or Adam Lind in leftfield, we could deal with David Wright’s power outage. But you know what? We don’t. Wright is our number one guy and when compared to other teams number one guys he comes up in the bottom third.
I don’t think it’s fair of you to call Daniel Murphy inept. First of all, he may be a better defensive first baseman than Cabrera. Anyway to call a rookie who had 38 doubles and 63 RBI inept is just not fair.
Danny is right. To call Murphy inept shows how little you know about the game. Are we all forgetting that this was a player in his first full season who was thrust into two different positions he had never played before and still held his own? It’s Minaya who is inept, not Murphy. Mets fans will appreciate Murphy more once he’s gone and helps another team become a playoff contender. Then all the outcry will come about how we should have never traded him.
Wright averaged 29 Hrs and 112 RBI’s / year over his first 4 full seasons, 2005 – 2008, with a .928 OPS.
If, Wright, aided by a better supporting cast, can ‘return’ to the 25HR / 100 RBI season in 2010, i’d be very happy.
Exactly everone is judging Wright on one bad year and they overlook what he has done in past seasons.
Jessep
Nice article. I happened to follow your chat the other day.
Numbers are very important and show ability. So are the intangibles that can’t be measured. A complete player (superstar) has both qualities. Character and personality alone do not make a player clutch, nor cause him to hit HR and drive in runs. More than anything else you need ABILITY
i am so conflicted on Murphy. We need so much. Daniel had a decent-to-good ‘rookie’ season, but the team fell off the cliff, he was ‘exposed’ in our cavernous LF (which no doubt impacted his hitting) and his numbers, basically for a full season, aren’t the kind of productivity we (and most teams) need/get from the 1B slot.
Which is why i suggest we pair someone like Nady or Jacobs or DeRosa with Murphy next year.
We have no clue: Murphy could develop into a 20HR, 80 – 100 RBI guy with a .280 / .300 average AND he could improve at 1B. So, i would not write the kid off, just yet.
I agree with you Bob about Murphy.I believe if ginen the starting job at 1st,he will show how good he is.If he is batting 7th behind Francour and in front of Molina/barajas he will hit 45-50 doubles 15-20 homers 75-85 ribbies also while walking 60-70 times.I think those people out there could be surprised how good he could be.They have to remember he had to learn 2 different positions at the big league level,with a team full of injuries.
Here is my take on Murphy: I actually think that he has all the physical skills to be a very good first baseman. His mental decisions were atrocious, though, and they were not all related to inexperience at the position. They were related to thinking the game, knowing how many outs there were, things like that. A person looks at Murphy and expects him to be more cerebral. He is not physically gifted although he has a good arm for first base. He is very slow on the basepaths yet still takes foolish chances. He is a fairly patient hitter who does not get a lot of walks. He has a slow bat as well. In short, he is a bit of an enigma.
Geez, i hear ya jdon, but i see the glass ‘half-full’ with Murphy. Think about how much pressure the kid had with his disastrous ‘fling’ in our spacious/cavernous LF and how that had to impact his hitting productivity.
Then, he had to learn 1B and flubbed that, initially.
All in all, i think the jury has still got to be ‘out’ on him.
i think i detect some decent hitting acumen by the kid. If we can pair him with a vet, i think he’ll begin to blossom in 2010.
i doubt the Mets trade him or deny him another shot. i do believe in 2010, i can see him hitting 15HRS, 75 RBI’s and hit around 280. Not great, not even good for a 1b, butthat might be the beginning…and i think he can learn to play the position well.
My point is that he displayed some of these less talent more brain characteristics in 2008. So i expected them in 2009. I am just not sure he is talented enough or smart enough to make up for it. It would not bother me if they brought in someone better. He may have upside, but how much can he have.
I’m beginning to think Wright is over-rated. Yes, I understand that the stats show he’s got a good avg. with runner in scoring position. But clearly most of those times were when the Mets were up 4-1 or 5-3 or something. How many times did he come through in the 8th or 9th when we needed it? And what the hell happened to hitting it out of the park!?
You really did your research on this one and I enjoyed reading it. I think most of the frustration with David Wright stems from disappointment rather than anything else. I still think he deserves a second chance to prove the power void was a fluke before we proclaim that it’s the new norm. I think the hitting with 2 outs and runners on base definitely created a bad perception of his overall season as you suggest. But those split stats fluctuate so much from season to season and it’s usually too small a sample size to base an overall judgment on. I bet he’ll have a typical David Wright season in 2010. He will be spending two weeks with HoJo after the this holiday weekend to learn to start pulling the ball a little more without harming his batting average or OBP. Francoeur will also be going as he seeks to become a more patient hitter. Hopefully HoJo has a positive effect. Happy Thanksgiving to everyone!
David Wright had a bad year for David Wright, but what was a bad year for Wright would be a very good year for most players in the league. He still put up a 123 OPS+ (and yes I used those fancy stats…screw those who think stats are meaningless)…for comparison sake, Derek Jeter who is a future HOFer has a career OPS+ of 121. Wright’s HRs and RBI were down, but he still hit for a solid average, got on base at a great rate, etc so its not like he was completely awful in all facets.
Going forward, the Mets will need Wright’s power to return…they aren’t going to win with him being the productive player he’s been the 4 yrs prior. So I do understand the concern about it in that respect, but people blaming him for the Mets season this yr and acting like he “let the team down” or whatnot, need to realize that with as awful as the Mets team were this yr, Wright coulda hit 40 HR and the Mets still wouldn’t have sniffed the postseason.
There is never any excuse to remotely compare ANYTHING between Derek Jeter and David Wright.
That ridiculous comparison only proves my point that those new fancy stats mean NOTHING. They tell you nothing about content, nothing about the substance of a ballplayer.
You can numerize anything you do in life, proves nothing.
They’re good for negotiating with agents according to Bob Costas and I agree with him. The normal regular stats are pretty much all you need.
First off, I’ll compare whoever the heck I want to compare.
Secondly, regular stats are much more based on team performance. The newer stats are a much better measure for performance. People who dismiss stats are morons. Stats are the truth, whatever opinions people form about players who look the best are just that, opinions. So I’ll take a player like Dunn on my team any day, I’ll take “unclutch” and “ungrity” A-Rod over Jeter 1000 times out of 1000.
As for Wright and Jeter, even using “regular stats” even in an off year Wright compares well to a typical season of Jeter. Wright in a good year is the much more productive player since Jeter typically doesn’t have as much power. So even comparing Wright’s off year to a typical season of Jeter, they are rather similar. Jeter’s career average is a bit higher than what Wright hit this yr, Wright’s OBP this yr was a bit higher than Jeter’s career, but neither difference was that huge. And as far as the power numbers go Jeter’s season average is about 16 HR, 31 2b, and 76 RBI a year.
Most of what has made Jeter great is that he’s been a good player for a long time. He’s going to get 3000 hits b/c he’s had a long career, and been good for the duration of it. He’s been good for a long time, but he’s really only had a couple of “great” years in his career.
Wow,
That response is about as horrible as it gets. I’m going to give you a response with NO STATS.
All you did was look at what was on paper and come to your conclusions.
I could have said to somebody…. here are 2 pieces of paper with the statistics of each ballplayer. Now write me a term paper based on these stats.
That term paper would have looked like your response.
If you called WFAN and presented that argument you would be ripped to shreds. Francesa would give you the hand wave after your first couple of sentences.
Oh God, So Jeter only had a couple of great years. I guess getting HUGE hits in the biggest games during the biggest playoff games, in the biggest sports stage in the world doesn’t count, or even during the biggest regular season games. I guess making great defensive plays that make or break your teams pennant chances don’t count either? I guess having other players, including your boy A-Rod praise your glory and be humbled to be even on the same team as you doesn’t count either.
David Wright would need about 8 magical seasons and several world series wins to achieve something like that. Listen, David Wright was with good players in 2006-2008 and had a chance to contribute to his own destiny. He failed.
And this year David Wright has dogged it running out ground balls more than he ever did. That is something Jeter NEVER, EVER does in his entire career.
Hey, Wright still has a lot of years left and he can change things just like Alex Rodriguez did this post season. I would be as ignorant as you if i were to believe that Wright could not change. I’m not so sure about it because he’s too much of a numbers collector and a big softee to do it, but it is possible.
It’s not a Hate David Wright post but a lot of DW Cool Aid drinkers need to be reminded of his shortcomings.
But he’ll have his moments though.
Jeter won so many rings b/c he was part of a great team. If Jeter was on any other team, he wouldn’t be nearly as praised as he is. Sure he was a big part of the team, but he didn’t do it alone, and he rarely was the most productive player on his team. And there were plenty of times Jeter didn’t get the big hit and other guys did. Thats what good teams do, they pick each other up.
And Francesa isn’t any kind of baseball genius, so I really wouldn’t care what he thought of my opinion nor what the people who call into the FAN think. The idiots who call into the FAN are more of your type who moronically dismiss stats entirely.
A-Rod is a vastly better player than Jeter its not even remotely close. Fine I’ll give you a pass if you don’t want to say Wright is better or as good as Jeter, since he hasn’t been as good for as long, but to say Jeter is better than A-Rod is just flat out ridiculous.
You are probably one of those people who think David Eckstein is a superstar just cause he’s gritty and tries real hard.
You’re an idiot. You are 100%, pure, raw, uncut idiot. Thanks for playing though.
My previous comment was meant for Bayonne not LGNYM.
Would you much rather have ball player with a lot of substance but only averages .240, or David Wright who hits over .300?
I think after the 2009 season you represent a part of the Mets fan base who blames everyone on the team for what went wrong, when really Wright had a bad year, but even if he had a good year it wouldn’t have made a difference
What you fail to note regarding your stats: How many times did David Wright come through driving in a run, after the Mets were already down 7-4 but, early when it was still a tie game or the Mets down by a run he struck out or popped up? He is a great player but last year he was miserable when it counted! He didn’t adjust to the way he was being pitched to and he constantly flailed at pitches out of the strike zone. And what made things worse, his fielding suffered because of it. Yes I’ll take him over any other 3B but I’d like for him to make in-game adjustments, also.
Well for starters I certainly wouldn’t say an RBI in a gm where the Mets were down 3 runs was unimportant. I’d hope our players wouldn’t be giving up ABs in those situations.
But FWIW, I don’t know what he hit with RISP in difference situations, but he did hit .313 overall in ABs where the game was tied.
Wright had an off year, and the Mets do need him to be better next yr, but he wasn’t as bad as the panickers make it seem.
well in a way bayoone is right-2009 risp and 2 outs, wright hit 200, in 2008- 247, in 2007-200, 2006-358, so the last 3 years bayoone is right, Wright is not clutch
Good read- http://www.thebaseballopinion.com/?p=1895
I enjoy some of the new stats for baseball, but mostly I enjoy watching the games as entertainment and with storylines. Rooting for sports teams is inherently irrational and nonsensical. Trying to turn it into Newton’s laws doesn’t work for me.
For one thing, the new stats are not bulletproof. OPS commits statistical heresy of adding unlike averages. Not to mention that slugging percentage is founded on the misguided assumption that a HR is exactly twice as valuable as a double, which is patently false.
Regarding Wright:
- I think Wright himself would say he had a bad year. So is a MLB player wrong in evaluating his own performance?
- I think Wright has been hyped to be one of the best players in MLB, and that’s what Met fans are expecting. So even if he performs “very good”, people aren’t going to be happy.
- I don’t think 3B is that crucial of a defensive position, compared to SS, 2B, CF, and even C. (And Wright’s defense wasn’t good this year.)
- Talking about performing “in the clutch”, I know that is definitely overblown, but given that all humans can be shown to performly different under pressure, and MLB players are human beings, I’m not sure how anyone can say that pressure has zero effect on all MLB players. There were definitely at bats last year where Wright looked very uncomfortable at the plate. I have no stats to back that up.
- I consider watching a player fail in key spots to be like getting a bad meal at a good restaurant. If you go to a nice restaurant with great food, loved by most people, and you get bad oysters and spend all night throwing up, you’re not going to want to go back there. Other people will say you’re crazy, statistically speaking the odds of getting bad oysters there are say 1 in 10,000. Nonetheless, when you’re deciding where to go for dinner, you’ll have a visceral reaction to going back to that restaurant. I think sports are the same way. Although numbers may more accurately reflect things, people are fanatical about sports because they promote visceral reactions. So I think it gets old for stat people to go off on how stupid everyone else for not loving players based only on stats.