Last week, the Mets made it clear that getting a starting pitcher would be a “top priority”, and that “money would not be an object” as they seek to put a “championship caliber team” on the field in 2010.
Both Jeff Wilpon and Omar Minaya specifically said that the Mets needed another starting pitcher when asked about the teams most pressing need.
As most readers of this site know, the Angel’s John Lackey could be the best available starting pitcher on the market. The addition of Scott Kazmir coupled with some of the whispers from the front office, make it increasingly likely that the Angels have no intention of retaining Lackey after their season ends.
Lackey is a solid pitcher who would easily fit right into the number two slot for the New York Mets behind their ace Johan Santana. I don’t think any Mets fan will have a problem with adding John Lackey, however it is important to note that Lackey does come with some baggage.
To begin, the 31-year old Lackey isn’t your prototypical ace, but he may very well get paid like one this winter. After spending a month and a half on the disabled list with a strained elbow, Lackey finished with an 11-8 record and a 3.83 ERA.
He has failed to make 30 starts or pitch more than 180 innings in the last two seasons, and his ERA has gradually increased as well. His career ERA is 3.81 and his WHIP stands at 1.31. Good, but not great.
I do love his bulldog mentality, but he may be a lot like Billy Wagner in that “he likes to speak his mind, even if it means taking swipes at teammates”, according to a story in the Daily News.
How much money Lackey will command this winter is tough to determine at this point. Realistically, he could be looking at five year deal worth about $80 million dollars. But when you consider the lack of other quality free agent options, coupled with the number of teams who will be in the market for a top of the rotation starter, it could make for a wide scale bidding war which could mean a sixth year for Lackey and an annual average close to $17-$18 million dollars.
Last year, the Mets didn’t have the stomach for a bidding war and they passed on Derek Lowe and signed Oliver Perez instead.
Honestly, given Lackey’s age and health risks, a 5 year/$80 MM contract would come with a lot of risk. Going beyond that gives me chills down my spine. That said, I certainly do believe that the winner of the John Lackey sweepstakes will end up seriously overpaying for his services and end up getting saddled with a potentially bad contract that would make the Yankees Carl Pavano deal look like a drop in the bucket.
I’d rather trade for a healthier Roy Halladay who actually is a bona fide ace and wouldn’t pose nearly the risk that Lackey does. I’m sure teams like the Yankees, Dodgers and Angels are thinking the same thing. Trading for Halladay and giving him a fat extension ala Johan Santana, might be the best move of the off season if you’re looking for a quality pitcher this winter.
*Mets Merized Online Needs Your Help*
It’s not your money Joe. Why are you so protective of the Wilpon’s millions? The fact is they recently made a promise to us and they also owe Mets fans BIG TIME! If there’s a bidding war on Lackey then so be it. WE MUST WIN THE BIDDING WAR. Otherwise, we’ll have to settle for the next best option which is exactly what happened with the Oliver Perez deal. Haven’t you learned anything from history?
Plus you are forgetting something important in your analysis. Lackey will probably shave at least a half run off his ERA by switching to the NL. We need Lackey more than any other free agent out there and we should sign him even if it means $100 million over 6 years.
Just because it’s not our money, why would you want your team to lose millions on a bad contract? That’s a terrible attitude to have for a fan. The reason the Mets find themselves in these predicaments is because they continuously overpay for players. (Schneider 5 MM, Perez 12 MM, Delgado 14 MM)
As much as we need another top starter, overpaying for one would only be a short term solution and hurt the organization in the long run.
truth.
The didn’t really overpay for Delgado…Firstbaseman who hit 35-40 homeruns a year get paid in the 12-18 million a year range. He has, however, aged fast and maybe not prouced as you would have liked, but they didn’t overpaid for him. Over-paying is what we did with Luis Castillo- $8 mil a year for 20 stolen bases and 120 games of below average defense and no pop. Why are you a bad fan if you don’t care that your owners lose money on a bad contract?? They are billionares we shouldn’t feel bad for them if they choose not to invest wisely. Besides, that’s not the whole point of his argument.
TODD, WILPONS ARE FAR FROM BILLIONAIRES IN THEIR OWN RIGHT. THAT’S THE PROBLEM, DO U REMEMBER THE DIFFICULTY THEY HAD COMPILING THE 500M TO BUY OUT DOUBLEDAY? IT’S LIKELY WHY THE MAIDOFF LOSES BELONGS TO STERLING ENTERPRISES, NOT NECESSARILY WILPON FAMILY.
PERHAPS I’M BEING NAIVE; BUT IN A PREDICTED DOWN ECONOMIC FREE AGENT ENVIRONEMENT, WHO IS THIS BIDDING WAR AGAINST? I’M PROBABLY WRONG; BUT I THINK 4/60-75 IS HIS TOP OFFER. ATTENDANCE DOWN EVERYWHERE ALONG WITH MISC INCOME. NYY & BOSOX LIKELY NOT INTERESTED AT THAT ALTITUDE. ATL ALREADY SHOPPING LOWE
In my opinion, the length of the contract is a major risk given he has had elbow problems. I view a trade for Halladay as a better approach, although I would not totally avoid negotiations with Lackey. The key to Lackey will be the length of contract and 5 to 6 years is an awful lot for a commitment. Dealing for Halladay shoud be the upfront approach in my opinion.
MASK, LIKE SANTANA WITH HALLADAY’S NO TRADE, HE’S LIKELY TO DEMAND HIGH PRICED LONG EXTENSION + IT COSTS THE REMAINING CREAM OF OUR YOUTH. IN MY OPINION, BEST AVAILABLES ARE FIELDER & CRAWFORD & BOTH ARE TRADE ACQUISITIONS, UNLIKELY WE’VE THE CURRENCY FOR 3 DEALS. HALLADAY IS CERTAINLY BEST AVAILABLE SP; BUT IS THAT WHAT’S NECESSARY? I THINK OUR TRADE CHIPS ARE BEST USED FOR THAT WHICH IS UNAVAILABLE IN F/A MKT POWER 1B & EXCELLENT DEFENSIVE LFer. BELTRAN’S KNEES WON’T TAKE ANOTHER YR OF ROAMING LINE-2-LINE IN CITI. WE ABSOLUTELY NEED A #2 A 1-A IS OVERKILL LEAVING BIG OFFENSIVE OR DEFENSIVE CHASM. THINK ABOUT IT. IF THEY GO FOR LACKEY, IN THIS DOWN MKT SANS NYY OR BOSOX A 4/60 MAY BE ALL THAT’S NEEDED & FIELDER & CRAWFORD ARE RELATIVELY CHEAP AVAILABLES(APPROX 10M PER ON EACH). JUST LIKE THE K-ROD MKT NEVER COALLESCED AS PREDICTED I THINK LACKEY’S MKT IS SIMILAR. TYPICAL BIG GUNS OF NYY,BOSOX,LAA,LAD NOT LIKELY PLAYING IN SP STRATOSPHERE WITH HALLADY A FUTURE CONSIDERATION. AGAIN I’M POSSIBLY WRONG; JUST GUESSING RUMORS ARE BREWS EITHER DEAL FIELDER’S 10.5M OR LOSE HIM AS A BORAS CLIENT FOR NOTHING. RAYS ARE TRYING TO CUT BACK DANGLING UPTON & THINKING HARD ON CRAWFORD 10M OPTION. BREWS GM STATED TOP PRIORITY IS ADDING 2 SP IN OFFSEASON WILLING TO DANGLE TOP PROSPECT TO DO SO. HOW ‘BOUT PELFREY & NIESE A RH & LH SP COMBO WITHOUT TAKING THAT PROSPECT. I THINK IT CAN HAPPEN. FIELDER IN CITI WOULD PITCH A TENT ON THE PORCH.
ISN’T THIS FUN?
What do you think the mets would hev to give up to be able to acquire Halladay?
Maybe
Neise or Pelfrey
FMart
Ike Davis
Jenry Mejia
But would that be worth it? I guess it wuld also depend on if we make any trades and get some good talent back in those trades.
Atlanta, I would certainly put Neise, FMart, and Mejia in the trade. I would try to keep Ike Davis out of it if possible. If Pelfrey wraps it up, I would do it. I would not hesitate to put Parnell in it. I would certainly put Murphy in it. So perhaps it becomes Pelfrey, Parnell, Murphy, and FMart. That gives them Pelfrey instead of Neise and Parnell instead of Mejia and Murphy instead of Davis. But we get a bonafide ace in Halladay. The rotation becomes Santana, Halladay, Maine, Ollie, and Redding. Still work to do there unfortunately but we still have Neise as a potential (along with Nieve, Figueroa, and Misch).
I think Mejia is as untouchable a prospect as it gets.
Redding is not on our team anymore and I hope he never is again
I don’t think the mets have enough to get Halladay, not form the new GM in Toronto, who will not let himself get cornered like the Minny GM did. They will have to buy a SP.
I think Halladay is the better target and should be Omar’s focus this offseason. Although I still think unless Omar adds at least one serious offensive player, a real ace is going to be hesitant to sign with us. I think along with a #2 starter, simultaneously going after a power bat is vital because each know they compliment each other. All players want to win a WS, and I think a big part of the team they sign with is which team gives them the biggest shot at that. As far as Lackey goes, if Omar has any skills he could start a bidding war for Lackey and pull out when the number got high enough to take some of the competition out on Halladay.
Ace, Good strategy to use Lackey as a distraction from the real target which is Halladay. I agree that it is futile trying to sign a top flight FA pitcher(or trading for one with a non-trade clause) without bringing in a power bat first. That’s why we need to sign a LF or 1B first and then go for the SP.
Mask, IMO a catcher should be seriously considered in a deal somewhere when we aquire a #2. Pitchers can be superstitious when it comes to the person behind the plate. Maybe if we could get a smart catcher (doesn’t have to be a slugger) he might help with leadership and try to get some of our pitching staff on the right track mentally. (Lord knows some of our Pitching staff have real confidence issues)I agree that we have a vital need for a 1B and LF, just thought we should add a C to the list since “money is no option”.
Absolutely. Thole should have more time at AAA to improve defense and Santos is a backup. So they can make do if need be, but we really need a starting catcher. I don’t like B Molina on the Mets because he is soooo slow and will clog the basepaths.
I agree with that, and I would love to trade for victor martinez.
he would be perfect: he plays 1st and C, and allow u to let develop thole and murphy as they should (by giving them some AB but not too many).
and he won’t cost a lot of talents because he’ll have only one year until free agency.
halladay would cost too much of the farm system. mets can’t afford that.
As crazy as your suggestion sounds, the strategy of engaging in a bidding war to take away a possible suitor for Halladay is actually a brilliant idea.
theonlymaskma, you’re right about Parnell, I would add him as well. In thinking about a trade with them, what if we were to take Vernon Wells contract as well, we need a LF and he has some pop. His contract is really bad but it would mean we would not have to give up some many players from the minors. We can keep Davis and FMart. Just a suggestion. It may look like this:
Blue Jays get:
Pelfrey
Murphy
Parnell
+ 1 more lower level player
Mets get:
Vernon Wells (12.5M in 2010, 23M in 2011, 21M in 2012 and 2013)
Halladay (15.75M in 2010, this would be added to his extension)
If we have to do that to get Halladay, I think we should. Of course, we’ll be stuck with Wells for the long term because no team will take him with a 4 yr $75mil commit. However, we do get some offense with it and the big plum of Halladay. I would do it and then look for a 1B to essentially wrap up the offseason work. So we have Wells, Beltran, Francoeur in the OF with Pagan as the #4. Could be worse. But is gets us better at 2 spots.
I like your idea.Toronto can get rid of Wells,but they will need a right fielder and centerfielder.What if you expand your trade to include Overbay who has 1 yearleft.
The Jays get F-Mart-Francour-Mejia-Parnell-Murphy-Tejada
The Mets get Halladay-Wells-overbay
You’re very creative with this deal, however; the Mets would have to get cash from the Jays to offset Wells contract committment.
I tell you what makes me shiver–giving Ollie 12 mil per. He is a sunken cost as far as I am concerned, as useful to this team as Billy Wagner and his salary were this past year. Yes, we need Lackey. But we cannot look at the team’s goal as making the playoffs each year. Every year it is the Mets trying to make the playoffs next year, and patching and mixing and matching. The objective should be to put together a team that will compete every year in the future. I do not believe in the core they have now. What do we do next year, sign another big money free agent starter? I realize we get a pass this year as far as draft picks are concerned. Teams do not build winners through free agency. We need new leadership and a philosophy from which we will not deviate from year to year. Yes, I would sign Lackey, because our chances of developing a number two are slim, particularly with Dan Warthen instructing M. Pelfrey on the finer arts. We shoud be salivating after someone like Dave Duncan (who would probably never work for a clown like Manuel), and a legitimate field general for our time, not a street corner hustler and self proclaimed “gangsta.”. But, Jerry and Omar “deserve a chance” to truly bury this franchise. By not clearing the decks we just delay the inevitable. We get a little better, we sign FAs, we have no farm system, we have no long term security, and we have no consistency.
The benefit of having Omar and Jerry back is that they will bury us one more time and if the pain is quick, the solution may follow rapidly. So hopefully they are both canned before All Star game 2010.
But what would you do–bring in a couple of interims for the rest of the season? Or find a GM off the rack when you might have gotten a custom tailored one this off season? That’s the thing. These guys are canned, the season is shot, and we do next year what we should do this year. We all know Omar and Jerry are going to fail. If we know that, why torture the fans further? This is not some moral imperative on the Won’tpons’ part. Why do Omar and Jerry deserve a chance, as they say? This is the big leagues. They failed, they go.
You’re right. They should have gone now, but ownership didn’t have the courage to do it. As you say, these guys do not deserve another chance, but the Wilpons are spineless and apparently buy into the injury excuse. So unfortunately it seems that there will have to be another fall for the team before these guys take a fall. Sad, but that seems to be where we are going. It pretty much dooms the 2010 season to another go around of follies, and also says that the easy fix will be for the Wilpons to advance Ricco to the GM job and the next bench coach to be the interim manager. It would certainly be better to get the right guys now.
jdon, your right about replacing Omar/Jerry now instead of middle of the season, and many agree with that. Some flip-flopped and readily drank Wilpon injury excuse kool-aid after the radio interview though, but that is beside the point. The point is that we as fans are stuck with them as a part of our top management team, and hopefully they can turn it around with the right chess moves this off season. we are forced to wait and see.
Of course you are right. I am suffering from the severest form of Met Fan Management Burnout. A bad team can be turned over. Bad management seems to be forever. I know I have said this somewhere before, but in the last 20 years the Mets have made one solid management move: Bobby Valentine. Every other top level management move the Won’tpons have made has been a poor choice. And I thought Leon Hess was bad. Watching this team since ‘62 has been a real trial, guys.
IF the Mets fail in 2010 early, the Mets would dismiss Manuel (only has 1 year contract) but not Omar (still has 3 years remaining). That’s alot of money to absorb and then hire a new GM.
It would cost a lot to get Lackey. Plus Lackey was on the DL back in April with a shoulder problem.
Excellent post! I have those same fears about Lackey and could actually see him becoming just like Carl Pavano who you mentioned. Paying Lackey anything over $14 million per season is nuts. Giving him more than three years is sheer lunacy. Halladay may cost you some prospects and more money, but you get what you pay for.
Everyone is so concerned with Toronto “having to” deal Halladay.
Vernon Well’s ‘11-’14 salary at 20M a year is by far the biggest issue Anthopolous will be dealing with. I’d force Wells into a deal with whatever team has serious interest in Halladay, if at all possible. Doesn’t seem like it could be, but maybe he can get creative.
As for Lackey, there’s nothing that really scares me away, aside from some injury concern which every pitcher on this market or available through a trade will have. A slight drop in K rate and a slight rise in BB rate isn’t much to talk about. Looks like he abandoned his cutter this year but he hardly ever threw it anyways.
I think Zambrano, Harden, Lackey, Halladay all fit the bill of what this team needs.
http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.aspx?playerid=1507&playerid2=305&playerid3=1772&position=P&page=6&type=full
During this season’s trading period, Halladay has already said that he WILL test free agency and will not allow any team a window to sign him to an extension. He has a full no trade clause so he is basically in the drivers seat as to deciding where to go. Do we really want to give up a ton of prospects for what might be a one-year rental? Especially given that there are so many holes that need to be filled on this team.
It may not be the splashy move everyone seems to want but it may make better sense to take the potential $15-16M a year for Halladay or Lackey and use that on TWO good starting pitchers who can toss 200+ innings each and keep their team in the game to complement Johan. Say, as an example, Marquis and Pineiro or Pineiro and trade for Gil Meche? As the BoSox have proven this season, you can never have enough pitching and they thought they had more than enough with all the veterans they brought in that didn’t pan out. Let Pelf, Maine, Ollie, Niese, Figgy fight it out for the last two spots. A little competition to stoke the fires would be good for this team.
PS. Scratch my comment on Meche. Didn’t realize he was owed 2 years at $12M instead of just one.
I think retaining Manuel was a very big mistake. Whether it be dealing with Pelfrey’s swoon, Maine’s unfulfilled promise or the Mysrey of Ollie, the Mets’ best off season move would have been to acquire Dave Duncan. I think he is the best person available to figure out if Pelf and Maine really have talent or are overrated. If that meant signing LaRussa to get Duncan, so be it. Duncan could also have been valuable in the development of Niese, Holt and Mejia. As usual, the Mets exercised horrible judgment.
Halladay should most definitely be the target this offseason, unless he will not agree to a window to sign an extension. If that is the case, I would pass. I like Lackey, but I would be hesitant to dramatically overpay. Maybe we just have to wait one more year when the free agent class for pitchers is much better. Also, by then we will have a better idea as to what we have in Niese, Pelf, Mejia and Holt.