Three years ago today, Carlos Beltran got a good look at an Adam Wainwright curveball and the Cardinals went on to the 2006 World Series. (I have spared my fellow Mets fans from having to see that picture by showing you a photo of Beltran hitting a home run against the Cardinals instead.) After that devastating loss to St. Louis, the Mets thought they could use it as a springboard to bigger and better things. Although they came close to returning to the postseason in 2007 and 2008, they failed to do so both times and completely fell apart in 2009. The Mets are not alone in thinking success from 2006 would carry over into future seasons.
The San Diego Padres share many things with the New York Mets. They’re fellow expansion teams from the 1960s, with the Padres coming into the National League in 1969. Both teams have claimed five division titles, but neither team can claim a no-hitter by one of their own. For a while, both teams even had strong ties to a Murphy brother, as Bob Murphy was a Mets broadcaster for 42 seasons and the Padres played in Jack Murphy Stadium (named after Bob’s sportswriter brother, who was instrumental in getting San Diego to build a multi-purpose stadium in the 1960s) as it was so named from Jack’s death in 1980 until it became Qualcomm Stadium before the 1997 season.
One other thing they share is the 2006 season and their subsequent dropoffs after both teams lost to the St. Louis Cardinals in that postseason.
The Mets had started to turn things around in the 2005 season under new manager Willie Randolph. They went from 20 games under .500 in 2004 to an 83-79 record in 2005. The Padres did the Mets one better by winning the 2005 NL West division title, albeit with a poorer record than the Mets (Padres won the West with an 82-80 record). Both teams improved in 2006, with the Mets winning the NL East and finishing with the best record in the National League (97-65). The team with the second best record in the National League was the Padres, as they finished 88-74.
Unfortunately, both teams ran into the buzzsaw known as the St. Louis Cardinals in the playoffs. Although the Cardinals finished with the worst record of all the 2006 playoff teams (83-78), they eliminated the Padres in four games in the NLDS before breaking our hearts in Game 7 of the NLCS.
Both the Padres and the Mets were hoping for return trips to the postseason in 2007 and midway through September, it appeared as if that would become a reality. Mets fans all know about the infamous collapse in 2007, but what they might not know was that the Padres suffered a similar collapse.
With 10 games left in the regular season, the Padres were fighting for the division title with the Arizona Diamondbacks. They were not even looking in their rearview mirror for the third-place Colorado Rockies. After all, the Rockies were 4½ games behind the Padres with ten games to play. Then the Rockies swept a three-game series from the Padres in San Diego (just like the Phillies had swept the Mets in New York) and the losing began. Their most devastating loss came in the next-to-last game of the season.
On that final Saturday, the Padres still held a two-game lead in the wild card race with two games to play. Just one win by the Padres or one loss by the Rockies would have given the Padres the wild card berth. The Padres were one strike away from winning the wild card and had all-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman on the mound against the Brewers’ Tony Gwynn, Jr. Then the son of the greatest Padre of all-time delivered the game-tying hit against Hoffman in a game the Brewers eventually won in 11 innings. The Padres then lost the final game of the season while the Rockies won their final two games, forcing a one-game playoff in Colorado that was won by the Rockies when Matt Holliday did a face plant into home plate to magically score the winning run without ever touching the plate.
Since their simultaneous collapses in 2007, the Mets and Padres have gone nowhere. The Mets fell short again in 2008 and both the Mets and Padres finished in fourth place in their respective divisions in 2009. However, the Padres did improve by 12 games in 2009, while the Mets went backwards.
Both teams play in pitcher-friendly parks. Despite that, Padres’ first baseman Adrian Gonzalez still hit 40 HR. This shows that if the Mets can get a player with legitimate power, they can have the home run threat in the lineup they lacked in 2009. After all, Citi Field wasn’t keeping opposing players from hitting home runs (see Mark Reynolds) and getting certain areas “named” after them (see Chase Utley, Utley’s Corner).
At the 100-game mark, the Padres were 38-62 and had nothing left to play for. Despite that, they finished strongly, going 37-25 over their final 62 games. How did they do that? They were able to score early and keep their leads. They scored late and often to prevent teams from coming back on them. They also had extended stretches of pitching brilliance.
Over the final 62 games, the Padres scored in the first inning 18 times. Their record in those games was 12-6. Meanwhile, the Mets scored in the first inning 12 times in their last 62 games. Somehow, they went 4-8 in those games. The Mets must continue to score early in games, but must also remember not to hit the snooze button after starting off well. Obviously, the losses will continue to mount if the Mets cannot keep any momentum they created in the first inning of games.
From the seventh inning on, the Padres outscored their opponents 95-74. By contrast, the Mets were outscored 88-73 after the sixth inning. The Padres were able to win nine games in which they were tied or losing after six innings. The Mets could only claim four such wins in their last 62 games. Although the lack of offense can be partially to blame for this, I choose to blame the bullpen, particularly Francisco Rodriguez. How many times did Frankie falter at the end of the season? Until Luis Castillo dropped the pop-up at Yankee Stadium, Rodriguez was a perfect 16-for-16 in save situations and was the owner of a spiffy 0.61 ERA. After that moment, Frankie converted 19 out of 26 save situations. He went 2-6, had a 6.10 ERA and gave up way too many game-winning homers. With a complete season from K-Rod in 2010, the Mets will have a better chance to outscore the opposition in the late innings and will be able to hold on to a few more victories.
Finally, over the last 62 games, the Padres pitching staff turned it up a notch. After the trade of ace Jake Peavy to the White Sox, the other starters elevated their game. In 15 of their final 62 games, the Padres gave up one run or less. They pitched seven shutouts and gave up only one run eight times. Over the same time period, the Mets only gave up one run or less nine times (four shutouts, five games giving up one run) and three of those came in the final three-game sweep of the Astros. Clearly, the Mets must acquire at least one more starter capable of holding opponents off the scoreboard. Another season with multiple starts by the likes of Tim Redding, Pat Misch and Nelson Figueroa is not the answer. They proved themselves to be capable in spot starts, but if they have to be in the rotation together for another month at a time like they were in September, the Mets can’t expect to win too many ballgames.
The San Diego Padres are too much of a small market team to be able to compete with the Mets when it comes to signing big-name free agents. Despite that, they still had a better record than the Mets did in 2009 and showed that they’re on the right track to becoming a contender again. Perhaps the Mets should follow their example of shrewd trades for young players (such as the Padres’ trade in 2005 where they acquired Adrian Gonzalez and Chris Young from the Texas Rangers for veterans Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka). They could also do a better job of scouting and developing players like the Padres did with Nick Hundley, Chase Headley and Everth Cabrera, all of which received significant playing time in 2009 and played well.
Since the 2006 season, both the Mets and the Padres have suffered since coming so close to reaching their ultimate goal. However, if the Mets continue to make poor decisions, their run of futility might continue. The Padres have already shown improvement and although they fired GM Kevin Towers recently, they’ve been more intelligent with their player transactions. Perhaps the Mets should look a little closer at how the Padres have been doing things before they make any more poor free agent signings (a la Oliver Perez). If not, it may be a team like the Braves or the Marlins who will be ending the Phillies’ run as NL East division champions before the Mets do.
I FIND IT FUNNY THAT SO MANY PSEUDO-GMs FIND SSO MUCH FAULT WITH THE SIGNING OF OLLIE. I WOULD LIKELY BE AMONST THEM HAD OLLIE BEEN THEIR PRIMARY SPing TARGET;BUT HE WASN’T LOWE WAS. I SEE OLLIE AS THE PERFECT BORAS FINESSE GAME. CONSIDER THIS: BORAS HAD 2 CLIENTS. ONE HAD THE POTENTIAL TO INTEREST MANY TEAMS; ONE HAD JUST ONE SUITOR. HE FIRST GETS OMAR TO OPEN HIS KIMONA WITH A LOWE OFFER OF 3/36. BORAS, DECLINES DEMANDING 4YRS ONLY. HE SIMULTANEOUSLY READS THAT ATLANTA JUST LOST SP SMOLTZ TO BOSTON LEAVING A BIG HOLE IN ATLANTA’S ROTATION, CALLS THEM ASKING IF THEY’D GO 4Y ON LOWE. ONLY THEN DOES HE MAKE AN APPOINTMENT TO FLY TO ATL W/LOWE WHOM HE LEFT OUT OF NY TRIP, SEALS A DEAL FOR 4/60; CALLS OMAR & SAYS SOMETHING LIKE”SHALL WE GET TOGETHER TO TALK PEREZ? HE ALREADY KNOWS HIS ONLY COMPETITION OUT THERE IS A CRIPPLED SHEETS AND QUESTIONMARKS GARLAND & WOLF AS WELL AS HOW MUCH OMAR HAS TO OFFER, 3/36. A DEFINITE POSITION OF STRENGTH FOR THE UBER AGENT.
OMAR’S NON-PEREZ OPTIONS: BETTER ATLANTA’s 4/60 offer ON 36 YR OLD LOWE OR PASS ON OLLIE & SIGN WOLF OR GARLAND.
CONSIDERING OLLIE’S MECHANICS SEEMED TO HAVE BEEN SUCCESSFULLY RESOLVED BY WARTHEN, OLLIE’S FUTURE CERTAINLY SEEMED BRIGHTER THAN OTHER AVAILABLE OPTIONS. HAD THE WBC NOT OCCURRED & OLLIE STAYED WITH MECHANICS FROM END OF ’08, IT’S DEBATABLE HOW THIS DEAL WOUKLD BE VIEWED IN 3 YRS, WHEN LOWE IS EARNING 15M @ AGE 39. NO WONDER RUMORS ARE ATL IS ACTIVELY SHOPPONG HIM & ONCE MORE OMAR SHOULD JUST SAY “NO!”.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Ollie’s third year is better then Lowe’s third year. That doesn’t mean it’s going to be as good as his 15-win 2007 season.
Plus, for $12 million a year, I had a right to expect a little more than what Ollie gave us. I hope he can pull off a Luis Castillo, where many fans wanted him out of New York, then he came back and had a fine season.
As a Mets fan, I want all our players to do well, including Oliver Perez. However, if he doesn’t give us some improvement in 2010 (doesn’t even have to be his 15-win, 3.56 ERA season of 2007, but it has to be much closer to his 2007 performance than his 2009 performance, that’s for sure!), then I’ll be pushing hard for his exodus before the 2011 season.
ED, I FULLY CONCUR THAT ’10 SHOULD BE OLLIE’S WATERLOO SEASON. UNFORTUNATLY, IF HE ISN’T GOOD, HE’S VIRTUALLY UNMOVABLE SINCE OMAR WILL BE PREVENTED BY OWNERSHIP FROM EATING HIS CONTRACT OR SUBSTANTIALLY UNDERWRITING IT IN ANY DEAL. THEY’VE REFUSED TO DO SO, HISTORICALLY. SEE, CEDENO,BONILLA,MATSUI,THE ’04 DUQUETTE HOUSECLEANING.
[...] a post to Mets Merized Online, Ed Leyro looks at the similarities between the Mets and Padres, both of whom lost to the Cardinals [...]
You say: “Clearly, the Mets must acquire at least one more starter capable of holding opponents off the scoreboard. Another season with multiple starts by the likes of Tim Redding, Pat Misch and Nelson Figueroa is not the answer. They proved themselves to be capable in spot starts, but if they have to be in the rotation together for another month at a time like they were in September, the Mets can’t expect to win too many ballgames.”
Here are Nelson Figueroa’s stats:
After becoming part of the rotation replacing Santana on August 25th, Nelson Figueroa allowed 18 earned runs in 50.1 innings (3.22 ERA), going 2-6. That averages 6+ innings per start.
In his 6 losses, the Mets scored a total of 11 runs. The Mets can’t expect to win too many ballgames averaging less than 2 runs per Figgy start. He could have easily been 8-0.
If you eliminate his first Jurgens game, in 7 of his 8 starts in the rotation, he allowed 12 earned runs in 45.1 innings (2.38 ERA). That’s a 2.38 ERA. He also has a rubber arm – he can easily throw 110 pitches every fifth start and he proved it with 126 pitches in one of those starts.
Nelson becomes a free agent after the last game of the 2009 World Series. That means he can sign with any ML team that offers him a contract. He has stated publicly that he wants to continue pitching for the Mets. He’s also said he’s the Mets Geico – low-cost insurance. Don’t you think there’s a Major League team out there who would sign Nelson as their #5, #4, or even #3 starter? as for his age (35), it means abosutely nothing unless you want to sign a pitcher to a 3+ year contract. There are 3 pitchers in the current LCS who are older – Darren Oliver, Pedro, and Mariano. I’m not saying Nelson is better than any of them – all I’m saying is that you can pitch well after you’re 35.
And please dont lump Nelson Figueroa with Redding and Misch.
I would love to have Nelson Figueroa on the team. I was quite impressed with his final month of the season. The point I was trying to make is that if the Mets have to depend on the combination of Redding, Misch and Figueroa for an extended period of time, the team will probably not do very well.
Say if the Mets had four quality starters and Figueroa, I could live with him getting 30 or so starts. I’m sure at worst, he’d win 10-12 games. But a combination of fifth starters becoming #3, #4 and #5 guys (like the Mets had to do with Figgy, Misch and Redding) won’t cut it for too long. Maybe for a few weeks or so, but eventually at least one of them (and probably more) would come back to Earth and the Mets would be looking for another pitcher.
I do appreciate your research. The former math major in me lit up when I read your stats!
ED, YOU CAN’T POSSIBLY USE ’09 FOR ANY COMPARISON OTHER THAN TO MARVEL AT THE SPing DEPTH WE WERE TOLD DIDN’T EXIST. OF THE 162G PLAYED ONLY 102(63%) WERE STARTED BY PITCHER’S WHO WERE IN THE ROTATION INITIALLY LEAVING STing: SANTANA(25),PELFREY(31),PEREZ(14),MAINE(15),REDDING(17)
CONSIDERING WE NEVER BOWED TO PITCHING “THE PEN”ala SPRING GAME OF 3IP/PITCHER. THE MERE FACT THAT 10 Ws WERE CONTRIBUTED BY NIEVE(3),FIGGY(3),NIESE(1), MISCH(3) SPEAKS VOLUMES AGAINST OMAR’S CRITICS DISCREDITING “THE DEPTH” BY MY COUNT THERE WERE 12 SP, 5 SS, 2-2B,3-CF,3-1B,4-C MOSTLY ALL FROM WITHIN(ONLY A-HERN,W.VALDEZ ACQUIRED)
CERTAINLY MANY WERE YONG RETREADS, NO 40 YR OLDS; BUT THAT’S WHAT HAS TO BE DONE WHEN U TAKE OVER A LOUSY FARM SYSTEM & GO YRS WITHOUT FIRSTROUND PICKS DUE TO INKING ML NEEDS.
FIGGY IS A NICE STORY; BUT SHOULD NOT BE A PLANNED ANSWER TO ANY NYM QUESTION IN ’10. THIS ISN’T MOTHER GOOSE, IT’S CUTTHROAT BASEBALL, THE MAJOR KLEAGUES. THER’S NO CRYING & NO SENTIMENTALITY. FIHGGY SHOULD BE THE ‘ACE’ OF THE BISONS. NO MORE.
You say (your typos uncorrected): “FIGGY IS A NICE STORY; BUT SHOULD NOT BE A PLANNED ANSWER TO ANY NYM QUESTION IN ’10. THIS ISN’T MOTHER GOOSE, IT’S CUTTHROAT BASEBALL, THE MAJOR KLEAGUES. THER’S NO CRYING & NO SENTIMENTALITY. FIHGGY SHOULD BE THE ‘ACE’ OF THE BISONS. NO MORE.”
Give me one reason – just one – why Figgy shouldn’t be given a chance at #5 in the 2010 starting rotation.
In addition to what I wrote above about his stats in the rotation, if he hadn’t been called up from Buffalo for four days in May and not used (missing a start), he would have qualifed for the 2007 International League lowest ERA (2.25); Carlos Torres won with a 2.39 ERA in 128 innings. Justin Lehr (117 innings) led with a 1.08 WHIP; Nelson’s was 1.03. Figgy needed a minimum of 115 innings pitched – he pitched 112.
His age (35) is not a valid reason for not giving him a one year contract. Darren Oliver, Pedrio Martinez, Mariano Rivera (all still pitching in October) are older – I’m not saying Figgy is better, but age is not a factor, it’s performance.
So, your reason for leaving Figgy in Buffalo and not signing him to a 2010 Mets contract is … ?
HDARVICK, U SUPPLIED MY ANSWER WHEN U WROTE THIS:
“Clearly, the Mets must acquire at least one more starter capable of holding opponents off the scoreboard. Another season with multiple starts by the likes of Tim Redding, Pat Misch and Nelson Figueroa is not the answer. They proved themselves to be capable in spot starts, but if they have to be in the rotation together for another month at a time like they were in September, the Mets can’t expect to win too many ballgames.”
LEFT TO MY OWN DEVICES, I’D HAVE TO ADMIT, THAT WHILE I LIKE FIGGY, HE’S TOO WEAK AS A TRUE ROTATIONAL SP. HE IS IN MY HUMBLE OPINION A TRUE AAAA PITCHER. A CONTINUATION OF THE NYM FORMULA OF 4SP + 1 THROWIN TO GET BY. HE’S CERTAINLY OLIVER GRADE,LIVAN GRADE,VARGAS,REDDING GRADE. I’D PREFER 5 SP ALL BRINGING SOMETHING TO THE TABLE NONE BEING JUST GET-BY QUALITY. THE POTENTIAL ATLANTA ROTATION OF JURRJENS,VASQUEZ,KAWAKAMI,HUDSON,HANSON CERTAINLY WON’T ALLOW US THE LUXURY OF A “GET BY” SP AND WE CERTAINLY WON’T BE ABLE TO OUTSLUG THE PHILLIES. WHEN I READ THE FORMULA IS “PITCHING,SPEED & DEFENSE”, I DON’T SEE GETTING BY AS AN ALTERNATIVE
THE GOOD NEWS SHOULD BE NONE OF YOUR COMPLAINTS WERE EVERE INTENDED TO BE SP. THE BETTER NEWS IS WHEN 90% OF THE ROTATION WENT MIA, THERE WASN’T A LIMA OR 40 SOMETHING SP ON THE BUMP TO BEGIN GAMES.
A ROTATION OF:
SANTANA
PELFREY
PEREZ
MAINE
REDDING
HERNANDEZ
NIESE
NIEVE
FIGUEROA
MISCH
PARNELL
WAS NEVER ON ANY DRAWING BOARD. I’M SURE I MISSED SOMEONE; BUT ISN’T IT AMAZING HOW WE WERE TOLD THERE WAS “NO DEPTH” JUST AS WE WERE TOLD WE DIDN’T HAVE CHIPS TO TRADE FOR JOHAN. BTW THERE WAS NO SACRIFICING HOLT OR MEJIA’S DEVELOPMENT JUST TO HAVE A NEEDED SP. WE’VE CERTAINLY DONE WORSE IN THE PAST WITH ROTATIONS ACTUALLY HAVING TRACHSEL & V.ZAMBRANO AMONGST THE FIRST/PRIME 5. NO THERE WASN’T A HANSON, HUGHES, CHAMBERLAIN, KENNEDY TYPE IN THE MIX; BUT NIESE & NIEVE BOTH LOOKED PRETTY WHILE THEY LASTED, BOTH ARMS ARE STILL SOUND. U DON’T GET TOP PROSPECTS IN SECOND+ DRAFT ROUNDS ESP FOR ‘SLOT’ MONEY.
teams have never clamored for Nelson when we DFAs him 3x a year. A couple off meaningless starts probably will not change their mind. Good bye. And as for Ollie, 62, if nobody was bidding for him, why did we sign him for so moolah?
JDON, VERY SIMPLE, BORAS KNEW WHAT WAS IN OMAR’S POCKET DUE TO LOWE OFFER; BORAS’ GREATEST ASSET AS A NEGOTIATOR IS HE DOESN’T REALLY CARE ABOUT HIS CLIENTS’ CAREERS, HE’D AS SOON FORCE PEREZ TO “SIT ONE OUT” RATHER THAN LEAVE A DIME ON THE TABLE. OMAR HAD TO HAVE A SP & PEREZ WAS ARGUABLY THE BEST LEFT ASVAILABLE. IT ISN’T LIKE OMAR OFFERRED 3/36 FROM THE ONSET 3/36 WAS HIS PARAMETER FOR HIS #1 CHOICE, MEANING HE WAS INITIALLY PREPARED TO LET OLLIE WALK. THE TALENT DROPOFF AFTER OLLIE WAS IMMENSE TO CRIPPLED SHEETS, GARLAND,WOLF(TOO MANY TEAMS RECENTLY IS INDICATIVE OF ISSUES WHEN LHSP IS AT SUCH A PREMIUM)
Figgy waas DFA’s twice not 3x. The second time he went directly to the Bisons. 8 starts (2-6) is not “a couple of meaningless starts.” The Mets scored 11 runs in his 6 losses, less than 2 runs per game. He had a 3.22 ERA in those 8 starts. If the Mets had scored 4 runs per Figgy start, he’d be 8-0 in those “meaningless starts.” He becomes a free agent after the World Series ends.
In 2004, Carlos Beltran batted .267 with 38 home runs (1 HR every 4 games) and 104 RBIs. But it was the 12 games he played in the postseason with Houston that got him his 2005+ Mets contract: .435 batting average with 8 home runs, 14 RBIs. So a “couple” of good games ending a season can help you get a good contract the next season.