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2009
David Wright’s Power Outage May Become Historic
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It has been well-documented that David Wright has suffered through a power outage this season. The home run dropoff cannot be solely attributed to the move from Shea Stadium to Citi Field. Out of the ten home runs hit by Wright, five have come at Citi Field and five have been hit on the road.
Last year, Wright hit 33 HR in 735 plate appearances (626 at-bats). That home run total has dwindled by 23 this season, as Wright has accumulated a mere ten home runs in 610 plate appearances (529 at-bats). If Wright does not finish the season with more than his current home run total, he stands to make some history.
Through extensive research, I found ten players who compiled seasons in which their home run totals dropped by more than 23 from one season to the next. In both of the seasons in question, each hitter registered at least 500 plate appearances. The players are listed in order by the difference in home runs from the first season to the second.
- Brady Anderson: 50 HR (1996), 18 HR (1997), difference of 32 HR
- Luis Gonzalez: 57 HR (2001), 28 HR (2002), difference of 29 HR
- Adrian Beltre: 48 HR (2004), 19 HR (2005), difference of 29 HR
- Roger Maris: 61 HR (1961), 33 HR (1962), difference of 28 HR
- Davey Johnson: 43 HR (1973), 15 HR (1974), difference of 28 HR
- Barry Bonds: 73 HR (2001), 46 HR (2002), difference of 27 HR
- Larry Walker: 49 HR (1997), 23 HR (1998), difference of 26 HR
- Hank Greenberg: 58 HR (1938), 33 HR (1939), difference of 25 HR
- Andre Dawson: 49 HR (1987), 24 HR (1988), difference of 25 HR
- Richard Hidalgo: 44 HR (2000), 19 HR (2001), difference of 25 HR
Out of all these players, every one of them hit at least 15 HR in both of the seasons. In my research, I could not find any player who had as many as 33 HR (like Wright had last year) in one season and then followed that up with fewer than a dozen home runs in the next season, given the 500 plate appearance minimum in both seasons.
In fact, I only found three players in major league history with at least 400 plate appearances in consecutive years who hit at least 30 HR in the first season and single digit home runs in the following season. Those players are:
- Gabby Hartnett: 37 HR (1930, 578 PA), 8 HR (1931, 438 PA)
- Rocky Colavito: 30 HR (1966, 614 PA), 8 HR (1967, 436 PA)
- Howard Johnson: 38 HR (1991, 658 PA), 7 HR (1992, 410 PA)
The last name on that list should be familiar to Mets fans. David Wright considers Howard Johnson to be his “baseball father”. If David’s power outage this season continues, it may be a case of “like father, like son”.
HoJo’s inability to hit home runs in 1992 was not due to an injury, as is typical in those situations. However, it might be explained by his change in positions. He played his customary third base position for most of the 1991 season until he was moved to right field for the last month of the campaign. In 1992, he became the Mets’ full-time centerfielder and did not perform well in the field.
Johnson did eventually suffer a season-ending wrist injury in late July, but not before he played in 100 of the first 103 games, collecting his measly total of seven home runs.
The closest comparison I could find to David Wright’s 2009 season was Vinny Castilla’s 2005 season. Castilla also accumulated over 500 plate appearances in 2005 after a 2004 season in which he hit 35 HR for the Colorado Rockies. Like Wright, he changed ballparks from one year to the next, moving from Coors Field in Denver to RFK Stadium in Washington. His power suffered as he went down from 35 HR in 2004 for the Rockies to 12 HR in 2005 for the Nationals. However, Castilla still managed to get to the dozen home run total that Wright has not reached.
If I did my research correctly, David Wright could become the first player to hit as many as 33 HR in one season, only to follow it up with a season of fewer than 12 HR. No player with at least 500 plate appearances in both seasons has suffered such a power outage in major league history.
Barring injuries or a trade, David Wright will probably finish his Mets career with many of the franchise’s hitting records. However, he may end up with a major league record that I’m sure he’d rather not have. If he doesn’t have a quick power surge over the last few games of the 2009 season, that dubious distinction will be his.
About the Author: Ed Leyro
Ed Leyro was hatched in the Bronx, but spent most of his youth in Queens at Shea Stadium. Apparently, all that time spent at Mets games paid off as Ed met his wife (The Coop) for the first time at Citi Field during its inaugural season. Guess the 2009 season was good for something after all. In addition to his work at Mets Merized Online, Ed also owns, operates and is head janitor at Studious Metsimus, where he shares blogging duties with Joey Beartran. For those not in the know, Joey is a teddy bear dressed in a Mets hoodie. Clearly, Studious Metsimus is not your typical Mets blog.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | 26 | 18 | .591 | - |
| Braves | 26 | 20 | .565 | 1.0 |
| Mets | 24 | 21 | .533 | 2.5 |
| Marlins | 24 | 21 | .533 | 2.5 |
| Phillies | 23 | 23 | .500 | 4.0 |
Last updated: 05/25/2012
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Excellent post and nice job researching this. With just three games left, I’m sure Wright will pull it off. My biggest concern is whether this season was a fluke or a new reality for David.
Ed, you must have had a lot of spare time on your hands last night. As much as I hate seeing Wright’s name on such a list of homerun futility, at least he has great company. Those are some impressive sluggers although despite the few obvious steroids related drop-offs, you do have some legitimate names in Greenberg, Dawson, Colavito and Maris. I’m pretty sure that Davey Johnson season was his best season, and what a season it was.
Is it possible Wright’s dropoff is steroid-related? Just asking.
Pops
I would say no because it seemed obvious he was trying to hit line drives to the opposite field all season and avoid lifting the ball in the air. His uppercut swing just wasn’t there. I hope he realizes that he should stop worrying about how big of a park Citi is and just go back to being himself. Because this new approach did nothing for his stats. I could understand if he at least hit .350 with less strikeouts than usual. But to accumulate more strikeouts, less home runs, the same batting average – what was the point?
He was taught to do that in ST. Remember Jerry’s 80 pitch opposite field exercise and also the Small Ball approach that has been introduced? This is intentional not accidental. The Mets created a Pitcher’s Park and they have modified the offense to live with it. The problem is the Small Ball approach carries over to the Hitter’s Parks when we visit them. Moreover, no one has told the visiting sluggers on opposing teams to play Small Ball when they come to our place. Just another Met’s management boondoggle. Take the bat out of the hands of your offense and what do you get? Simple, no runs scored and a lot of L’s on your bottom line. The result is David doesn’t remember how he used to hit in past years. Just thank the Omar and Jerry team.
That’s certainly interesting, but what is missing is the age of the players at the dropoff and what happened subsequently in their careers. I think (but don’t actually know) that the list of players are generally older than David and at the ends of their careers. However, David is actually only entering his prime years. His situation may be different than the others in the comparison. At least we can hope that he doesn’t follow the “model”. To complete the analysis, it would be interesting to see the ages tabulated as well as the subsequent career performances. Will David actually play another 10 years with less than 12 HR’s per season? Sounds incredible to me.
Got your answer right here about the ages for the ten hitters I listed:
Brady Anderson: age 32 (50 HR), age 33 (18 HR)
Luis Gonzalez: age 33 (57 HR), age 34 (28 HR)
Adrian Beltre: age 25 (48 HR), age 26 (19 HR)
Roger Maris: age 26 (61 HR), age 27 (33 HR)
Davey Johnson: age 30 (43 HR), age 31 (15 HR)
Barry Bonds: age 36 (73 HR), age 37 (46 HR)
Larry Walker: age 30 (49 HR), age 31 (23 HR)
Hank Greenberg: age 27 (58 HR), age 28 (33 HR)
Andre Dawson: age 32 (49 HR), age 33 (24 HR)
Richard Hidalgo: age 25 (44 HR), age 26 (19 HR)
Please note that David Wright was 25 when he hit 33 HR last year and 26 this year. That puts him in the same age group as Adrian Beltre and Richard Hidalgo and just younger than Roger Maris and Hank Greenberg.
Other than Barry Bonds’ season, every player was age 33 or younger when they had their peak HR season.
It will certainly be interesting to see what Wright does next season to see if 2009 will become his new norm or if this season was just a fluke. I hope it’s the former instead of the latter.
Ed, Thanks for the taking the time to get the additional data. Four out of ten is a meaningful number, but Maris and Greenberg stll had 33 after their decline. Beltre and Hidalgo declined to smaller numbers, but with 19 were still well above David’s number for this year. This makes David a fairly unique individual. Let’s hope this year’s experience is simply an extended slump and he recovers from it over the winter. However, it is cetainly very scary and peculiar at best.
David Wright’s problem is about his approach.
This has been happening since late August of 2008.
All the pitchers have him figured out.
He just can not hit the 93 mile plus fast ball with authority and they usually set him up with on a 2 strike count with however many balls are on the count they throw him a slider out side or in the dirt and he strikes out also since last year I have noticed a hitch off of his back leg that does not allow him to drive the ball like before it has nothing to do with the stadium.
Have you given your resume to the Wilpons? Apparently the current coach hasn’t caught on.
That ridiculous Jerry Manuel hitting drill in spring training totally sapped Wright of his ability to pull the ball. Yesterday Manuel said that Wright will be spending the winter working with HoJo to get Wright to start pulling the ball like he used to. Wright will be fine next season.
Isn’t it amazing that David now has to work through the winter to undo what Jerry preached in ST? Unbelievable!
If I am David Wright I am pulling out film from 2006. Any pre-Howard the Duck season should do the trick. This guy is no coach. David got a little screwy with his swing after the home run derby, but at least he kept his numbers up. Now he is a basket case. We need David’s rookie swing. Just as a curiosity, did anyone notice how many bloop its David got this year> He got a ton.
[...] Last year, Wright hit 33 HR in 735 plate appearances (626 at-bats). That home run total has dwindled by 23 this season, as Wright has accumulated a mere ten home runs in 610 plate appeRead more at http://metsmerizedonline.com/2009/10/david-wrights-power-outage-may-become-historic.html [...]
[...] It has been well-documented that David Wright has suffered through a power outage this season. The home run dropoff cannot be solely attributed to the move from Shea Stadium to Citi Field. Out of the ten home runs hit by Wright, five have come at Citi Field and five have been hit on the road. Last year, Wright hit 33 HR in 735 plate appearances (626 at-bats). That home run total has dwindled by 23 this season, as Wright has accumulated a mere ten home runs in 610 plate appeRead more at http://metsmerizedonline.com/2009/10/david-wrights-power-outage-may-become-historic.html [...]
There was a game where Keith, Gary, and Ron had Kiner in the booth and they asked him about Wright’s dropoff in HRs. Kiner said he had never seen a guy consistently hit HRs in the 30s and suddenly drop to what was at the time 8 with the average and health all there.
This blog shows that even though each guy had a dropoff, they still hit over 15! Wright isn’t even coming close to that (unless he goes nuts these last three games at the place that messed up his swing).
Either way, this season has been such a mess I have to wonder if he can get back his old swing and get this out of his head