Before we get started, I wanted to take a moment to introduce myself. My name is Eric Stashin and I run www.rotoprofessor.com, a fantasy baseball website that has been around since January 2007. We cover all of baseball and I hope to bring some of that here to all of you. On top of that, I have the misery (I think we all feel that way right now) of being a life long Mets fan. I look forward to providing some of that insight to all of you here!
We all know the Mets have countless holes to fill. For a team with one of the highest payrolls in baseball, it seems unfathomable that they would need so much help. Exactly where are they spending their money?
As you ponder that question, you also must consider how the Mets will fill their many voids. One such void is at first base, with the 37-year old Carlos Delgado highly unlikely to return and Daniel Murphy proving last season that he just does not have the bat to be utilized as a full-time corner infielder. With a relatively weak free agent market, you have to wonder if the team will look within to fill the void. Lucky for them, their top hitting prospect, Ike Davis, is a first baseman.
Drafted in the first round of the 2008 draft (18th overall), Davis has quickly proven that he was more than a low-risk, signability selection. Splitting time between Single and Double-A in 2009, he hit .298 with 20 HR and 71 RBI in 429 AB in 2009. Being sent to the Arizona Fall League to gain more experience, he has made a lasting impression in just two games going 5-9 with 1 HR, 8 RBI and 2 R.
Thus far he’s struck out just once, but it clearly is a minimal sample size. As we dig into his minor league numbers since being drafted, we notice that his ability to make contact is becoming a concern:
- Low Single-A (215 AB) – 20.0%
- High Single-A (222 AB) – 23.4%
- Double-A (207 AB) – 29.0%
With that knowledge, you have to question his ability to hit for a consistently high average. While he hit .309 during his stay at Double-A, it came courtesy of a .381 BABIP. Obviously it is unlikely that he can continue at that type of pace and it will likely be exposed further as he moves up the ranks.
With an average that seems destined to crash and burn, you have to wonder if he will be able to produce enough power to justify his usage. His flyball rate, which was a lowly 34.1% in 2008, rose to a solid 42.8% in 2009. That number would allow him to potentially contribute enough. Examples of those who did it in the major leagues this year:
- Justin Morneau – 42.9% (30 HR)
- Evan Longoria – 41.8% (33 HR)
- Jason Kubel – 41.6% (28 HR)
As he continues to mature, if he can maintain his current flyball rate it would not be out of the question to see him reach the 30 HR plateau. Of course, playing in CitiField may hinder that slightly, but the potential is there.
The problem is, would the power be able to overcome an average that is more likely to be at .250 as opposed to .290? He’s not likely to suddenly become Ryan Howard or Adam Dunn, launching moon shots and routinely topping 40 HR.
The fact is, no matter what he does in the AFL, it is nearly impossible for him to answer the one, large question. Will he be able to consistently put bat to ball in the major leagues? Until we can answer that, the idea of the Mets turning the 1B job over to him is an alarming one, especially without some sort of contingency plan. That’s how the Mets problems grew in 2009 and you need to learn from your mistakes.
The team’s best bet would be to sign a placeholder for 2010, someone who they could easily slide to the bench if Davis tears up Triple-A, proving that he can rake. At the same time, you want someone that could do the job for the entire season, in case Davis struggles. Could someone like Russell Branyon or Adam LaRoche fit into the Mets plans?
At this point, that’s the course I would take. I’d expect him to open the season in Triple-A, likely staying there until the All-Star Break, at the earliest. With the potential that he doesn’t make an impact this season, I’d consider him a low-end option outside of the deepest of keeper leagues, one that should be left on the waiver wire. Obviously, the Mets plans for Davis could change that, but at this point that’s where we are.
What are your thoughts? Could Davis be a usable fantasy option? If you were the Mets, how would you advance him in 2010?
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at the level hes at, there is no way u can assume that he will be in the majors in 2010. in fact, i think it would be smarter to work with him and maybe have him come up early to mid 2011. hes young and he has much to learn. they need someone that could go in this year and maybe help murphy get better as well. you need to play the year without Davis on your mind. we have a chance to win this year, if everyone stays healthy, but i dont believe that davis will be able to fill our voids this year. so how bout we stick to watching dan murphy in the afl and maybe getting a guy like aubrey huff
I tend to agree. Over the last couple of years the Mets have rushed the few decent prospects they have to the majors just to watch them crash and burn.(F-Mart-Evans-Kunz-Parnell) Just last year he had 0 home runs (i think) for Brooklyn single A team. He made a huge jump in 09 but let the kid work on his power for one more year in the minors. I have no problem with a spring training invite tho.
It’s good to see you prescribe the correct course of action for the Mets until Davis can improve his contact rate. I am very intrigued by his power potential and hopefully he can be an option for us in 2011. As for LaRoche, I like him alot but I think he may be looking for a 3 year deal. Just a thought, but maybe DeRosa can step in for a 2 year deal and then slide over to the bench as a utility player when Davis is ready.
I’m not ready to anoint Ike as the 2010 first baseman. Seems like too much wishful thinking, but it’s in character with the present time of the year, which is before the current season’s World Series has even begun.
Let the 2010 pre-season begin and let Ike beat out Daniel Murphy first, which despite all the bad press the present day Mets have endured, is no ‘done deal.’
But thanks for an entertaining article.
I still like Murphy. After his big slump he improved a lot. In Sept he was so good that it sure looked like he would be close to a 300 hitter, and with the long ball.
Who’s to say that he will not even do better then he did in the last two months of 09 next year.
He tries so hard and he is sure is young enough to improve his game in the field and AB.
Any chances of us getting Adrian Gonzalez? That would be better than getting Holliday for LF
Ya we can give them the whole double A team. lol
CAPSLOCK=DISABILITY ACCOMODATION
JONATHAN, WHEREVER U HEARD GONZALES WAS POSSIBLY BEING MOVED IS A SOURCE U WANT TO IGNORE. GONZALES IS A ‘NATIVE SON’ ‘FRANCHISE FACE’ @ REASONABLE RATES FOR SD. WHEN THEY SAY HE’S NOT BEING MOVED I’D TAKE THAT AS GOSPEL MUCH THE SAME WAY U’D SCOFF AT ANOTHER TEAM’S FAN SUGGESTING ACQUIRING D.WRIGHT. SD HAD THE 29th PAYROLL IN ’09. GONZALES IS UNDER CONTRACT FOR BOTH ’10 & ’11(OPTION) FOR $10,350,000 COMBINED WITH NO BUYOUT.HE’S IN THE MIDDLE OF A 4Y/9.5M CONTRACT. DETAILS:
Adrian Gonzalez 1b
4 years/$9.5M (2007-10), plus 2011 club option
signed extension with San Diego 4/07, replacing 1 year/$0.3805M contract which had been renewed 3/07
$0.5M signing bonus
07:$0.5M, 08:$0.75M, 09:$3M, 10:$4.75M, 11:$5.5M club option (no buyout)
award bonuses: $50,000 for Gold Glove, $25,000 for All Star selection
2008 All Star selection increased price of 2011 club option to $5.6M
1 year/$0.3275M (2006)
re-signed by San Diego 2/06
1 year/$0.316M (2005)
re-signed by San Diego 2/05 (split contract, $76,400 in minors)
drafted 2000 (1-1)
$3M signing bonus
agent: John Boggs
ML service: 3.108
I hear ya.
But, the info came from the Ex-Padre GM, who said it’s not IF he gets traded it’s WHEN.
If anybody should know it should be him.
EXACTLY! AND WHEN COULD BE 2011 AT A TIME THAT THE BIG 1B F/A NAMES ARE AVAILAVLE BERKMAN,PUJOLS. WHEN F/A $$$ ARE SO HIGH AS TO MAKE TRADING TOO MANY PROSPECTS SEEM LIKE A BARGAIN. MU POINT IS THERE IS ABSOLURTLY NO INCENTIVE TO TRADE HIM THIS OFFSEASON INSTEAD OF NEXT. HELL, OMAR COULD SAY THE SAME IF/WHEN CRAP RE. SANTANA.
Patience is required in any discussion about Ike Davis. It would appear that his 2009 performance is more relevant than his dreadful 2008 showing, both in terms of recency and what he historically provides.
The organization needs to determine its immediate goals – does it want a 1984 version of Mets, a young core developing from within the organization, or the 1998-2000 Mets, a collection of free agents that developed really good chemistry.
I prefer the 1984 version, and would wait for our younger players to develop rather than lop on large contract after large contract. And should Jerry Manuel become more talk than substance, I would hand Wally Backman the keys to the club.
From this perspective, there’s really no room for the one-year stopgap such as Nick Johnson or Adam LaRoche. Nick is too injury prone and LaRoche would require a longer commitment. Somehow, I don’t see LaRoche sitting on the same bench as Carlos Beltran.
I like Ike, but he appears to be at least one year away. He reminds me favorably of Shawn Green in his make-up. I like Daniel Murphy, too. He reminds me of Charlie Hustle, alot. There should always be a place for him on our ballclub. Too bad he wasn’t developed to be a catcher.
So I’d probably let Murphy play a full season at first base, allow Ike develop his skills and review the plan at the All Star break, and make any further moves based upon each player’s performance.
Good post!
Keep this in mind, as great as Davis has been he still has yet to hit a breaking pitch in the AFL. However in my opinion, there is a 99% that we will see Davis in Queens before the all-star break.
If Ike Davis played 1st base every day for the Mets in 2010 would he hit better than:
.260 12home runs 63rbi’s 60runs scored
Yes. Easily.
But at what cost Davis’s long term development?
If Carlos Delgado played 1st base for the New York Mets in 2010
would he hit better than?
.260 12home runs 63 rbi’s 60runs scored
Of course he would!
For the love of God why can’t we sign Delgado to an incentive laden 2 yr contract and allow Davis to have one full year at AAA to develop?
With your presumptivness and dismissivenes, you’re ready for a job with the New York Post or Daily News.
Let’s get real, nothing is known until Davis plays against curves and sliders thrown with command and intention.
Until then, all the rhetoric of ‘easily’ and ‘of course he would’ about Davis and Delgado is speculation. Let’s remember, Davis has a learning curve ahead and Delgado is likely a diminishing talent.
Des,
Do you honestly think that Carlos Delgado will hit less than .260 have less than 12 home runs and 63 rbi’s if he plays in 2010?
In all honesty if Delgado plays in 125 games in 2010 what do you think his numbers will be? Lets put you on the spot.. put yourself out there.
The Mets NEED one player in the lineup in 2010 who can give us 25-30 home runs and 100+ rbi’s. If not.. we’re not winning.
LIFER, U MAKE SOME SENSE; BUT SO DO THOSE WHO APPARENTLY SCOPED OUT THE 1B F/A POOL & FOUND MUD. TO STAND PAT WITH MURPHY,DAVIS @ 1B IS LUDICROUS & SELF DEFEATING. THERE IS ONLY ONE POTENTIAL,AFFORDABLE SOLUTION FOR 1B: PRINCE FIELDER.
PRINCE IS UNDER CONTRACT FOR 2010 @ 10.5M & ARBITRATION ELIGIBLE FOR ’11 Vs SCOTT BORAS. MILW FOR ALL THEIR DENIALS OF MKTING HIM CAN’T AFFORD A RECORD SETTING ARBITRATION AWARD FOR A GUESTEMATED 20M. DEALING A 1B @ THAT LEVEL WOULD BE NEAR IMPOSSIBLE, NYY AREN’T INTERESTED, NOR NYM, BOS, CHC, DET OR PHL. MILW GM PUBLICLY ANNOUNCED A GOAL TO ADD 2 “EXPERIENCED” ROTATION ARMS TO WORK WITH THEIR NEW PITCHING COACH, RICK PETERSON. I STILL THINK WE HAVE A SURPLUS OF PROVEN 3 THRU 5 ROTATION ARMS IN PEREZ,PELFREY, MAINE, NIEVE, NIESE, MISCH. IF I’M NYM I CORNER BOB MELVIN IN WINTER MEETINGS & DON’T TAKE NO FOR AN ANSWER. FOR 2011, I’D CROSS THAT ARBITRATION BRIDGE WHEN I CAME TO IT. THE F/A CANDIDATES ARE BETTER & DEEPER @ 1B IN ADDITION TO DAVIS HAVING MORE EXPERIENCE. POTENTIAL 2011 1B F/As:
* – player whose current contract includes 2011 option
Player Club
First Basemen
Lance Berkman HOU *
Wes Helms FLA
Jason Giambi COL
Ross Gload FLA
Paul Konerko CWS
Derrek Lee CHC
David Ortiz BOS *
Lyle Overbay TOR
Carlos Pena TB
Albert Pujols STL *
I STILL THINK A PKG BUILT AROUND A NUCLEUS OF PELFREY & MAINE WOULD GET MILW ATTENTION. I’D EVEN THROW IN MURPHY IF I ABSOLUTELY HAD TO. WITH ONLY 10.5M INVESTED IN 40+HR @ 1B NYM COULD STILL SHOP FOR OTHER HOLE FILLERS LIKE LF, #2SP,#1C I WOULD MAKE THEM SAY NO UNTIL I HAD TO SAY NO.
Prince will cost us too much in talent & contract, so will AG from SD for that matter. But, I think Prince would cost more and Adrian is a better defender.
I also think that anybody we get should be as proficient with the glove as they are with the bat. Man, did I love John Olerud.
I’m not sure what Delgado will do next year. He’s no youngster and he’s not the most flexible guy in the world. If he can play a whole lot he probably will, but I also remember how he dogged it while playing for Willie, when he went home with a clean uniform almost every day. He was making a ton of money yet he dogged it. It almost certainly was Carlos’ attitude, because when Jerry showed up, so did Carlos.
Also, I think Carlos Delgado is a defensive liability. Maybe to light a fire under him, or maybe as a candid observation, Willie wanted to use defensive replacements in the eighth and ninth innings. So if Carlos loses more defensive range, he might not get to bat as much.
(P.S.: What I’ve said doesn’t mean I don’t find him a pleasant, nice guy. I’m talking only about his guaranteed productivity and the fire in his belly.)
I don’t think Delgado dogged it at all, I think he wasn’t 100% healthy and he is a notoriously slow starter, but he can carry the team. He can put the team on his back and carry for stretches.
Something we sorely missed with him and Reyes sidelined.
I really hope the Mets dont rush this kid.There is nothing wrong with being patient,let the kids move up 1 year at a time.Davis,Thole,FMart and Tejada should all start in Buffalo.
What ever happened to Lucas Duda?
Nevermind, apparently the Mets moved him to the outfield…
JONATHAN, MILWALKEE KNOWS THEY’RE IN A BIND ON FIELDER, HE’S SIGNED ONLY THROUGH ’10 @ WHAT NYers VIEW AS AN EASILY AFFORDABLE 10.5M; BUT CONSIDERING THE CREWS’ TOTAL PAYROLL FOR ’09 WAS 80.2M (17th HIGHEST)& THEIR ’10 PAYROLL COMMITMENT RIGHT NOW IS 38,813,000 INCL PRINCE’S 10.5 OR APPROX ONE QUARTER OF TOTAL PAYROLL COMMITMENT. EVEN THOUGH HE ISN’T QUALIFIED FOR F/A AFTER THIS CONTRACT, AN ARBITRATION HEARING WITH BORAS REPRESENTING THOSE STATS HAS TO BE VIEWED IN TYHE SAME LIGHT. AN AWARD BET 15-25M IS CERTAINLY NOT UNFORSEEABLE; AND UNTENABLE FOR A MIDMARKET CLUB. WITH YANKEES SET @ 1B WITH TEIXIERA UNTIL ’16 @ 22.5M & BOSTON DROPPING THEIR PAYROLL OUT OF TOP 3. IT’S OBVIOUS BORAS WILL USE HIS YANKEE 1B CLIENT AS A BASIS FOR COMPARISON WITH THE ARBITOR. MILWALKEE IS NOT GOING TO HAVE MUCH OF A MKT FOR A 20M/YR SLUGGER. CONSIDER IN ’09 ONE THIRD OF ALL FRANCHISES HAD PAYROLLS @ OR BELOW 75M. I’M CERTAINLY NOT AS SMART A BASEBALL EXEC AS BOB MELVIN. I’M CERTAIN HE SEES ALL THAT &, I BELIEVE, A TEAM IN THAT POSITION THAT FINISHED THE ’09 SEASON WITH THE HIGHEST ROTATIONAL ERA & WHO’S TOP SP (LOOPER) HAS A CLUB OPTION FOR 6M HE’S RUMORED TO DECLINE TO TEST F/A ALL OF THIS FACTORS INTO A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR PURSUING FIELDER IF U HAVE ‘EXPERIENCED’ AFFORDABLE,CONTROLLABLE SP TO DEAL. MELVIN ALSO VOICED HIS WILLINGNEST TO PART WITH HIS TOP PROSPECT TO ACQUIRE SPing. BY NOT REQUIRING THAT PROSPECT IT’S TANTAMOUNT TO BREWS RECEIVING HIM IN RETURN.