It’s only October, but the Hot Stove Season is fired up and ready to go. Just make sure you don’t get too close to the stove or you could get burned.
Us Mets fans will have it bad again this off season as sports pundits like Jon Heyman, Ken Rosenthal, and others are gearing up to go toe to toe and provide thousands of bloggers with plenty of content to occupy our time during the long off season. Many of them will be sure to mention the Mets in many of their tweets, blurbs and blog posts simply because of how engaged we are as Mets fans, and because we like to react or overreact to any new information, regardless if it’s a legitimate rumor or just idle speculation.
Last weekend, Jon Heyman wrote that the Mets had no interest in Milton Bradley (Neither do I), and yet in another post Ken Rosenthal wrote the Mets already contacted the Cubs regarding Bradley. Obviously the Mets must have had some interest if they actually took the time to call. Or did Rosenthal get it wrong and the Mets never made any such call?
Yesterday we had Jon Heyman writing that the Mets have no interest in John Lackey, but just days earlier Lackey was reportedly the Mets top off season target if you were to believe the reports on ESPN.
Last week it was reported that Matt Holliday might be too rich for the Mets taste and that they may look at a less expensive Jason Bay instead, and less than a day later we read that the Mets are “all in” on Holliday and have no interest in Bay.
It’s pretty confusing, isn’t it?
The need to produce content at a furious pace is clearly in play and just about anyone will say anything in the name of the almighty “hit” or “page view”.
In the last 24-hours we went from the speculation that Carlos Beltran could be traded as was reported in the Boston Herald, to another writer from the same newspaper saying that he knows for a fact the Mets will not trade Beltran. That little exchange spawned about three dozen posts on the subject of trading Beltran, including one right here at Mets Merized. In the end, all of us Mets bloggers managed to keep our readers entertained even though the chance that the Mets would trade Beltran was slim to none.
The Hot Stove Season is a lot of fun, but it can get rather confusing very quickly, especially if you forget that 99.5% of what you read is purely speculative with very little if any fact attached to it. You have sports writers who care more about getting the scoop instead of the facts. They inundate the web with a non-stop stream of hints and allegations, with each one trying to outdo the other as if they were in some sort of a competition. There is no such thing as a slow news day on the web where baseball rumors are concerned. Unfortunately, most of those rumors are not rumors at all, but just some gibberish that is intended to elicit a reaction.
It’s too bad we can’t go back and create a database of all theses so-called rumors and see how many of them actually came to fruition. That way we can say “wow look at this guy, he’s batting .315″ or “that guy blows, his OBP is .289!”
I bet most of them are hitting below the Mendoza line…
Seriously though, wouldn’t it be great if we could hold the rumor-mongers to a higher level of accuracy and responsibility?
While technology has advanced the productivity of almost every industry in this country, accurate reporting in the news and sports industry continues to sink to new lows every day. And when they screw up royally, they can always blame it on their unnamed sources. Sources by the way are another growing problem. All of a sudden everybody’s got them, heck even I got six of them (four in my front pocket and two in my back). But that’s a topic that deserves a post and a couple of thousand words of its own. Maybe I’ll hit that subject tomorrow.
Fortunately, we still have our eyes, ears and intellect to help us sift through all the noise. So, now that you understand what’s in play, you can go ahead and have fun debating the incessant speculations and outpourings that we’ll be flooded with in the next few months. Just remember to take it all with a grain of salt.
Consider most of the so-called rumors more for their entertainment value, rather than an actual prelude to an imminent trade or signing.
Of course there are legitimate trade rumors too. They can usually be identified by the names, quotes, dates, details and facts that are attached to them. My rule of thumb is that the more information you get, the more likelihood that there is some validity to it.
When you see something like this: “Mets apparently leaning towards Jason Giambi”, don’t freak out.
Instead look for something that reads like this: “I just got off the phone with Omar Minaya, who told me that he has a 3:00 PM meeting scheduled with Scott Boras in New York, regarding his client Matt Holliday.”
The first quote is someone just throwing something out there, the second one is chock full of details and assuming it’s from a reliable source, it’s a legitimate rumor.
Those of you who can spot the difference will get a better idea of what the Mets may actually be up to this winter.
Enjoy the off season!
*Mets Merized Online Needs Your Help*
Spot on dude. I cant stand reading half the crap thats out there. Especially annoying to me are the full length blogs based on one sentence someone twittered. It’s ridiculous how much junk comes from twitter regarding the Mets. I gave up with it.
You could always block the ones that annoy you on Twitter. It’s actually a great resource for Mets news and I just followed this story from Twitter.
What I find more annoying are the faithful that take these rumors as gospel and go NUTS when they “hear” something contrary of what they heard from the Wilpons and/or Omar.
Kay, I totally agree with you and partly with jason. I just dont blame Twitter as the problem. If more Mets fans would just take Joe’s advice and not overreact everytime they read something on mlbtr we could have better debates.
Joe D -
Very entertaining post – you are a true voice of reason, which is one of numerous reasons why I like this site so much.
Baseball reporting is a breeding ground for false rumors. Football reporting, by contrast, tends to be slow, methodical and accurate. Its a bit off-topic, but I read a great article on Eli Manning today in Newsday where the writer analyzed the fact that his pre-snap audibles, more than any injury to his foot, are disrupting the offense’s rhythm. I think Coughlin commented on it, too. I was screaming about the same thing during the game (Eli, just stfu and run the play!).
I wish baseball had a salary cap. I wish the Pirates, Reds, Royals, A’s & Co. were more relevant year-to-year. The offseason has really turned into a whorehouse market, where greed abounds, idiots like Omar get fleeced and genuises like Billy Beane gets their hands tied behind their backs. Baseball transactions sound like activity on Wall Street, where people with little knowledge or true love of the game dip their hands into the till and drive prices beyond the common man’s reach.
So, your assessment of the off-season rumor mill is spot-on. I simply wish that more teams could participate in the process of restructuring their rosters to maintain a competitive balance.
Thanks Tommy. The great divide between the haves and have nots has changed everything. Once proud franchises like the Pirates, Reds and Royals may never ever win a World Series again. The Pirates havent had a winning season since the civil war.
Tommy, you stated: “I wish the Pirates, Reds, Royals, A’s & Co. were more relevant year-to-year.” I’ll go one step furhter and apply your wish to the Mets. I don’t give a rat’s a-s about the Pirates, Reds, Royals, A’s & Co. I’d rather like to see the Mets more relevant!
Then why not create a league where just the Mets, Phillies, Dodgers, Angels, Red Sox, and Yankees, (relevant teams only) competed. Or why not realign the divisions by financial resources instead of geography? As it stands now, it’s not much of a competition for about 10 of the 30 teams. Or get rid of the bottom ten, and make the season shorter and lose the wild card.
Good point. I am curious (and always have been) how teams like the Pirates, Royals, etc. still continue to operate. Are those 10 or so teams your reffering to actually turning any kind of profit? Some sort of realignment has been a long time coming.
As far as the rumor mill goes, it does get exhausting IMO. All of the “possibilities” and “what if’s” is really endless, and at the end of the day it’s all just guessing until we see what management actually DOES do this offseason. Does anyone else worry Omar & Co. will foul it up somehow?
JOE, BY ELIMINATING THE BOTTOM 10 FROM THE ‘09 PAYROLL HIERARCHY YOU’D LOSE 2 POSTSEASON TEAMS, ROCKS & TWINKIES; BUT BELIEVE IT OR NOT KC STAYS WITH THEIR 20th RANKED 76,021,243 PAYROLL @ #20 SO DOES TEXAS’ 76,239,840 @ #19. THE NON W/C PLAYOFF TEAMS & THEIR PAYROLL & (RANKING) ARE:
NYY 206,811,689 (#1)
PHL 127,957,380 (#5)
BOS 122,624,689 (#6)
LAA 116,709,000 (#7)
LAD 109,176,603 (#8)
OBVIOUSLY THERE IS A CORRELATION BETWEEN PAYROLL & CONTENDING AS THE OBVIOUS MISSING TOP TENERS ARE NYM(139.1),CHC(137,9),HOU(105.0),SEA(99.3).
THE DISPARITY BETWEEN PERENIAL #1 NYY & WHICH EVER TEAM IS #10 OVER THE PAST 5 YRS HAS ALWAYS BEEN A DIFFERENCE IN EXCESS OF #10’s PAYROLL. IN 4 OF THE PAST 5 YRS THE NYM HAVE BEEN AMONGST THE TOP 3. 2006 WAS SUPRISINGLY THE LONE EXCEPTION. IF U WISH FURTHER HISTORICAL DETAILS I RECOMMEND THIS SITE:
http://content.usatoday.com/SPORTS/BASEBALL/SALARIES/totalpayroll.aspx?year=2009
INTERESTING NOTE IS THE OLDEST YEAR RECORDED THERE IS 1988 WHEN THE LIST IS STILL TOPPED BY THE NYY @ 18,909,152 TOTAL PAYROLL, WHEN NYM WERE POSITIONED #4 @ 15,502,714 THE GOOD OLD DAYS!!! ONLY 21 YRS AGO! BTW PRETTY CONSISTANTLY LIKE IN BOTH ‘88 & ‘09 THE METS HAVE HAD THE #1 POSITION IN THE NL
Thanks for those stats MEST62FAN. I can’t believe how low the payrolls were only 20 years ago.
In World Cup Soccer, there are no set divisions in the league. Each year the divisions are based on the prior seasons final standings so that the best teams compete against the best, with the weaker teams competing against their counterparts in intraleague play. At the end the lower tiered teams is ensured of having 3 teams in the post season against the top 3 team in the top division.
Maybe something like that with a few changes can ultimately be the solution to competitive baseball for all 30 teams and balance in the post season between the rich and the poor.
Good article Joe. Here’s an idea for you. How about starting a data base of rumor mongers? Track the various rumors and see which work out and which do not. Then perhaps we can learn where to put our credence. That way we can learn to believe those with a good track record and ignore the others.
Thats not such a bad idea mask. I’ll see what I can do.
great post!!! honestly, unless peter gammons or tim k. report it, i wont really read it. these guys are legit and always seem to have great sources. i must say, its always fun reading the random stories that this team will get this or that but it just makes u think about different scenarios.
but let me just say that i love what you guys do here on this site. its always a good time reading these posts no matter what the topic is and you guys show great commitment to this team, while covering all the stories, real or false.
Well written. The good news is that MetsBlog is reporting that Mark McGwire exercised his option and will stay with the Dodgers. Could you imagine another three months of “Kiss my fanny, we want Manny”?