I recently was emailed this question by one of our readers.
I heard that the Mets will not alter the dimensions of Citi Field next season. Does this mean that David Wright is doomed to be a 10-12 homerun hitter instead of a 30 homerun hitter?
I was a little surprised myself when I heard the news that Citi Field’s dimensions would stay the same. Last month, Wright admitted that he altered his swing because of the park and obviously there’s a carry-over when he’s on the road when you take a look at his splits. Personally, I feel Wright let the park get into his head and that he worried too much about it. He should not have altered a swing that he had so much success with in the past.
Wright still maintains a .300 clip, but his OPS will fall below .900 for the first time in his career. His doubles are down too, and his .460 slugging percentage is 75 points lower than his career average heading into this season. All of this is coming at a time (26 years old) when most hitters begin to reach their peak years. His strikeout rate is the worst of his career.
You can’t blame Citi Field for all these things. It was originally thought that players like Wright would see a decrease in homeruns that would be countered by an increase in triples and doubles. That didn’t happen either.
He is stealing more bases this season (24), but he is also getting caught more (9), and his SB% of .73, is the lowest it’s been in his last four seasons.
The Mets will not budge on their stance and make the park more friendly to hitters, some say it would cost the Mets money that they simply don’t have.
It falls on David Wright to adapt to his new home whether he likes it or not.
You don’t have to hit 30 homers to be a great hitter.
I believe that if Wright can improve his contact rate and decrease his strikeouts, he can still be a force to be reckoned with and an ideal number three hitter for the Mets, possibly even their best ever.
If Wright can improve his average by even 3%, he would be able to drive in many more runs as a .320 hitter than he would as a .310 hitter. He would also do well to stop swinging at balls outside of the strike zone. His 0.55 BB/SO ratio is the lowest of his career.
Wright needs to stop worrying about the homeruns and concentrate on simply driving the ball to all fields and becoming more disciplined at the plate. Ironically, he is seeing more pitches per plate appearance than he ever has before, but still manages to get fooled on those balls in the dirt.
Despite some of my nit picking, let us not forget that Wright is still one the best hitters in the game against lefthanded pitching. His .414 batting average and 1.127 OPS are astonishing to say the least.
So in short, Wright may not be that 30 homerun hitter we saw in ‘06 and ‘07, but he can still be one of the league’s best hitters and a perennial MVP candidate, even without the homeruns.
*Mets Merized Online Needs Your Help*
While I am concerned about Wright’s lack of home run production this season, I feel that he will return to his old form next year after getting accustom to Citi Field.
Also, let’s remember that he had minimal protection around him in the lineup this year. In 2006 and 2007, David was surrounded by the likes of Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado. His protection this year was Gary Sheffield. Let’s face it, Sheffield is not protecting anything these days. Sure he’s still got the violent swing, but his hardest hit balls became foul ball souvenirs.
One of the biggest culprits affecting David’s (and the rest of the team’s) power production was the spring training’s “80 pitch drill”. There was entirely too much focus on going the other way with this team. Sure, the ability to go the other way is a big part of the game. But it should be secondary to a batter’s ability to turn on a pitch and drive it.
David can turn this thing around, and 2010 will be a great season for him.
The only problem with what you said is that David hits a lot of his HR’s going the other way. I believe his lack of HR’s is the protection in the lineup, or lack there of. Also, just because the dimensions won’t change next season, it doesn’t mean that they won’t change Citi Field in the future.
I don’t think this is unintentional but part of the Mets “grand strategy”. A pitcher’s park was built at Citi to take advantage of the Mets historic strength in pitching (of course, they forgot that Seaver, Koosman, Ryan, and Gooden don’t pitch here anymore). The “80 pitch drill” was instituted to adapt our hitters to the pitcher’s park. The emphasis is Small Ball. We’ll leave Big Ball to the other teams to feast on our deficient staff. We can’t win games with tradition, but require real aces pitching today. Unfortunately those aces are on the visiting teams. It’s pretty obvious that this team is no longer being built for power. Forget the HR’s; they’re a thing of the past. The Mets have allowed Citifield to destroy the team’s performance. Jerry just does what he is told and has been set up to lose.
Yeah for real…they built the stadium for pitching and defense…yet fielded a team of deficient defensive players and a staff loaded with question marks. Granted, much of that can be attributed to injuries, but what about trading away Endy Chavez and relying on D-Murph and Sheff to patrol left field? Church was a ?, and both those LFs above are ?s, so why was Endy dealt so easily? Clearly, Seattle had a plan as they fielded the best defensive outfield in the league. I hated that trade when it happened. Why would you acquire a RP with decreasing velocity and 3 injuries in 1 season, let alone trade one of the best defensive outfielders in the game? Still, I hold Omar deserves this one last shot. I think you can learn from your mistakes, especially when the end of your term is staring you down.
Matt, my first thought when I read your comments on Omar is you must be realted or something. He deserves one more chance? that is totally laughable! what has he done, period? I guess the past three years were not his fault because we were the sick bay commandos this year. Omar is an absolute IDIOT!!! Take the Wagner situation for an example. (and believe me ther are ALOT more examples in his idiocracy)All he had to do in Wags situation was…NOTHING!!!! yet he made a trade for WHAT? “Prospects”? Yeah, the two ptbnl turned out to be real professionals and completely comparable to Wags. All he had to do was NOTHING….and offer him arbitration to get two picks! this constant defense of Omar is absolutley unbelievable at this point. OMAR NEEDS TO GO!!! until he’s gone, we will not win a pennant, simple as that.
Agree Ace, I lost faith in Omar last year when he did nothing to help get an arm into the bullpen. Don’t forget in 2007 when this team needed starting pitching he did nothing, I’m sure he’ll blame this all on Adam Rubin. Seriously though he must go.
Thanks Greg, I know you took some heat over your last article re: Omar but you were totally right. I hate to be harsh to Matt as well but this defense of Omar is really frustrating at this point in his Mets employment. Dammit, what does a guy have to do to get fired?
Unfortunately, the albatross in this situation is his 3 yr contract. The Wilpons will not cut him with the remaining $ commitment in that contract.
He is really bad and I also can not believe all the defense he is getting. As you pointed out the Wags deal was awful. The Putz lie was another example. The return of the injured by the All Star Game was a farce. The “wait and see” strategy was a boondoggle. The Murphy hype in LF was a joke. The handling of Reyes’ injury is a crime. Adam Pettyjohn for Castro really paid off. Failing to trade Sheffield and then having him sit on the bench for the balance of the season was brilliant. Compare the Braves development of Hanson (who shut us out tonight) to our development of Parnell or even Pelfry. Oh, and Omar did a great job handling the firing of Bernazard (and Willie too for that matter).
The record is clear. NO MORE CHANCES FOR OMAR! HE NEEDS TO GO NOW!
Even your list, accurate as it is, is only some of the reasons Omar has given his employers to show him the door. I mean he fired Willie for ALOT less.
He’ll hit 30 HRs again,
Guys have gone up and down with HR totals throughout baseball history for whatever reason. Beltran for example has gone from 40 to 20 or less and everything in between. Larry Parrish who used to play with Texas and Montreal was all over the place – 30 to 18 to 8 to 20…so who knows.
It looks like David was bummed out by CitiField but other guys are hitting HRs here so he’s got to get it together.
I think what’s pretty alarming is how he never hustle out groundballs anymore and nobody is calling him on it. And don’t tell me it’s because he’s played all year. That’s nonsense. you hit a ground ball, you run.
Remember how Mike Piazza used to come flying down on the 1B bag?
I think the operational word is “demoralized”. How do you keep the fire going when you’ve been eliminated, the team will have a losing season, you’ve played all year with no one in the lineup for support, and mgmt hasn’t done 1 friggin’ thing to help, and there are no prospects for change. I can’t blame him for not running. If I was in his place, I’d ask to be traded.
I agree with you Bayonne, I think he will certainly it 30+ again. But as to your groundball observation, I agree his moral on this team has to be at an all time low. I don’t even think it has been the results of the past years, it’s the outlook of the organization that’s probably (yes, I am guessing here)got him demoralized. He’s got to be asking himself “why should I..” I don’t agree with that but it makes sense.
i disagree with both of you on that point. Don’t know if you’ve ever played baseball but you go to bed, wake up, it’s brand new day. You’re playing ball, you’re in the lineup, you get 4 ABs and you run hard if you hit a groundball. You don’t think about how the season went down when you’re running to first base. I’m not thinking about my dinner, or my life when i’m running to first base. It’s the moment, you’ve just hit it and you run. You guys are putting to much into it.
If he’s slowing down running to 1B now he will do it again next year.
No excuses – he’s getting a pass on it and you guys are giving him a pass.
Let me clarify, I was not clear in my previous post. I think (from my previous post) that is his reason why. I do not agree with, nor am I giving him a pass either. I think he should be playing to his full potential regardless of the situation,team standings, etc. No excuses from me, just my guess why. I would like that next year that would change if the teams a little more sucessful. But he should be checked on that now, and that again is indicative of Manuel’s lack of leadership, same as the other base running issues you brought up.
I am well aware my defense of Omar is shocking. 50% of it is just me playing devil’s advocate. I look at this season as a throw-away, and the reality appears that neither the Wilpons nor Omar are going anywhere. Thus, I will be optimistic about next year and I look forward to having a healthy squad with a lot of talented young prospects in camp. I’m anxious to see the moves he makes this offseason. It will undoubtedly be a defining season for his managerial career.
I also am anxious about deals to be made this offseason. They are essential if this team is to be turned around without waiting several years for new talent to work its way up from the farm. However, I just have a very bad feeling that we will be disappointed once again. I would love to be proved wrong on this, but my gut tells me nothing of significance will happen regarding player acquisition. Omar: Prove me wrong.
Exactly. He’s faced adversity from every angle this year and is being challenged for his job. Luis Castillo showed dedication last winter and proved everybody wrong. I’m not saying Omar is a lock to do the same, but there’s no reason to think it can’t be done.
I fear I keep digressing from the topic at hand. D-Wright, 30 HRs? I never really thought of him as a 30hr hitter to begin with. He broke onto the scene pushing balls to the opposite field and doubling into gaps. Then he got pull-happy and was just as much a part of the epic collapse(s)as the rest of the team with his lack of situational hitting. I’d have to check spray charts, but I think it’s safe to say he’s been using more of the field this year. It’ll be interesting to see if his slugging/ops goes up once there is actual major league talent consistently getting on base in front of him.
Matt, the biggest adversity Omar has faced has been by his own doing my friend. I would like to be optimistic, but the fact that the disapointment has been for several years in a row, and not just this year of the sick bay commandos, has my optimism all but gone when it comes to what Omar is capable of in the offseason. Look, I am a Mets fan to the core, so I really would like Omar to pull a rabbit out of his hat in the offseason. That would be crow I would LOVE to eat. but I agree with Mask, he’s not pulling a RABBIT out of that hat….but the status quo instead.
I don’t think David Wright is a home run hitter. I see David Wright as a 15-25 home run a year guy with a high batting average. Wright’s numbers have been incredibly consistent year after year. I think Wright’s lower home run numbers should be explained as a player developing over time into a more rounded skilled offensive presence rather than seen as regression.
I like to think of David Wright as a Bill Madlock type offensive 3rd baseman but with a better slugging percentage. I have stated this before but here goes again; I think that in the next 3 years Washington’s Ryan Zimmerman will develop into much more of a power hitting 3rd baseman than Wright.
Wright was never a power hitting 3rd baseman. I don’t think he was ever meant to naturally hit 30+ home runs a year consistently over the course of his career. Sure he may have a season here and there in during which he hits 30+ home runs but that’s not his game. Wright is a line drive gap hitter who hits home runs. Bill Madlock with power is about the best analogy I can come up with right now.
Just for the record if the Nationals offered to trade Ryan Zimmerman for David Wright straight up I would do it in a second! Thats how good of a player I think Zimmreman will develop into.
Agree, Zimmerman has never had the talent around him Wright has had. I can’t make excuses for Wright…….. Andrian Gonzalez bytch about playing in Petco with no protection ? How many HR’s he has ?
Excuses for Wright
2006: unlucky injuries in playoffs + flukey run by Cards. Wright has an amazing season, not his fault.
2007: bullpen implodes, team’s best pitcher is Oliver Perez. Team blows 7.5 game lead while Wright plays awesome baseball, so it’s not his fault.
2008: really bad bullpen, awful pitching every 5th game from Pedro and a cast of nobodies. Wright is team leader in avg/obp/slg, so it’s not his fault.
2009: Wright has down season which includes getting hit in the head by a Matt Cain fastball. Still the best player on an awful baseball team, so it’s still not his fault whatsoever.
??? That’s more of a team thing than it is a Wright thing but i’ll mix Wright into it for you. A flukey run by the Cards that still won them a title and what did Wright do during those playoffs ? Thanks. 2007 and 2008 where was Wright in September, but it’s nice you like to focus and blame it all on the pen. 2008 ? Murphy is still standing on 3rd, funny how Pinella pitched around Beltran to pitch to Wright. 2 collapses and none of Wright’s fault, right ? Blame it all on injuries and the bullpen, right ? That’s how we roll. It felt like Wright always came up with men on base but yet he left most stranded instead of bringing them in. Do me favor, stop looking at the back of your baseball cards. Excuse for not hustling ?! Enlighten me, please. Yea he has the best stats on this year’s team because Beltran,Reyes and Johan have been injuried all year. Some of you guys treat Wright like he’s teflon.
Please. Please looks at Wright’s statistics in September 2007/8. In what logical world do you blame the guy that does things right and defend the guys that actually messed up?
Oh wait… if Wright just hit like Albert Pujols in 2007-2008 the Mets would have made the playoffs. So it has to be his fault.
Zimmerman is only 2 years younger than Wright and has only played one less year. Zimmerman has never had a full season with an OPS above .900. DWright has done so every year but this season and a shortened rookie campaign.
Maybe Zimmerman will develop a little more power and be much more of a power-hitter than Wright is. But there is very little chance he will be an OBP-machine like Wright.
Chris says:
September 16, 2009 at 1:22 amPlease. Please looks at Wright’s statistics in September 2007/8. In what logical world do you blame the guy that does things right and defend the guys that actually messed up?
” Does things right ”
K so not hustling is right ? Ok………
And you don’t remember Wright leaving guys on base ? Chances to win games (bring Murph home from 3rd with less than 2 outs) ???
You just remember what’s on the back of a baseball card ? K cool
In my book not hustling, leaving guys on base, errors and striking out way too much…….. now that’s messed up.
Who am I defending that’s ” messed up ” ? Who’s messed up ?
Well, based on you’re comments, you seem to think it’s Wright’s fault the Mets haven’t won with him on the team. So, by doing so, you are defending the actual problems with those teams (07-08).
What are these problems? To name a few, ineffective relief pitching and horrendous organizational depth. And in 2007 Carlos Delgado’s down season.
Of course Wright messed up a few times in the stretch runs in both those season. Everyone does, even Albert Pujols. However, the scrubs on the team did it more often.
The problems with the Mets do not involve David Wright, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, or Johan Santana. These guys are superstars. However, superstars (other than maybe Barry Bonds circa 2001-2003) cannot do it alone. There are 21 other players on the team. These 21 players need to be better in 2010 than they have been the past few seasons. This is on the Mets (hopefully new?!?!) front office to deal with this off-season. The superstars just need to keep being themselves.
I’m not saying it’s DW’s fault but you can’t talk about the Mets short comings ‘06-’09 and not say Wright has no fault. The problem is some Met fans put Wright on a pedestal and they look for excuses for him. They won’t bring up the fact that Wright didn’t show up in the ‘06 playoffs but they’ll be quick to tell you about Beltran’s K even tho Beltran’s #’s dwarf’s Wright’s in the ‘06 playoffs. If you watch every single game the last 2 seasons you knew how many AB’s Wright had with men on, I know I don’t need to tell you that. But Beltran had more bigger hits the last 2 seasons down the stretch than Wright had. I can’t even call Wright and Reyes superstars. Superstars carry teams, they don’t go down with the ship. But that once again is a Met fan seeing the world thru blue and orange color sunglasses. You have to be fair and objective
Yeah be fair and objective. Don’t blame the BEST PLAYER ON THE GODDAMN TEAM. Wright good. Beltran good. Santana good. Reyes good. Delgado good in 2006 and 2008. (Sorry for the terrible grammar) The Mets won a lot of games from 2006-2008 thanks to the contributions of these excellent baseball players. They were a pretty good team.
And how to you get better? Don’t get rid of the guys who contribute in order to “shake things up” or whatever BS everyone seems to be spouting. Make improvements at weak positions: LF, 1B, LF, RF, and a lot more pitching depth. And most importantly I think: improve the farm system. Sure they have a few nice prospects (Davis, Niese, Holt, Mejia, Neiuenweis (sp?), Havens, Thole) but overall it is very weak. Think of the teams that have done well recently: Red Sox, Rays, Angels, even the Yankees and the Phillies… they all have solid farm systems.
The Mets organization thinks it can build a championship team with their 4 superstars and a collection of overpaid, washed-up veterans, Oliver Perez, and Jeff Francoeur. That’s not how the Phillies or the Red Sox or the White Sox or the Marlins or the Angels have done it recently (I’m not going to mention the 83-79 fluke Cardinals).
/response + useless rant about the Mets
There are so many things that happen over the course of the baseball season. Statistics are necessary because you can’t possibly remember every single play. If you ignore statistics, you just end up remembering a few of the bad plays. This is what it appears you have done.
You can say maybe if Wright did x and y in that one game they may have won and then beaten the Brewers for the wild card. But if they guy didn’t put up the absurd numbers he did all year, the Mets wouldn’t be anywhere near competing with the Phillies and Brewers.
I don’t want to interject myself into this, but if you look at the opposing arguments, it all comes down to the classic argument of whether David is clutch. Yes, Davis can put up great stats, but somehow Mets fans like BrooklynsOwn remember the key situations that could have been difference makers in which the job didn’t get done. The difference is what happened in those key situations and is David clutch or not?
Are you guys saying you don’t want arguably the second best third baseman in baseball because you remember a few times when he left guys on base? Every player leaves guys on base. Every player leaves guys on base in high leverage situations. In 2007, David Wright had a 1.031 OPS in what are considered high leverage situations. In situations deemed late and close, he had a 1.037 OPS.
Yes, in that season he awful with runners in scoring position and 2 out with a .766 OPS. However, this was in a small sample size of 82 PAs. He was incredibly unlucky with a .208 BABIP and walked at a higher rate because teams obviously don’t want to pitch to him.
David Wright often gets big hits (e.g. last Saturday’s game). Unfortunately no one remembers them because we all expect them. We only remember the times that he messes up– because we don’t expect it because he is so good.
In his career, Wright performs the best in high leverage situations. I hate to label a player as clutch (because that is really just players being overhyped by the sports media, such as Omir Santos for having one big hit despite the fact that he gets on base less than 30% of the time), but I would say David Wright is clutch.
Chris, Great post about Wright’s better OPS numbers than Zimmerman.
However in 3 years I think Zimmerman will be averaging 35 home runs 120 rbis’s 40+ doubles 110 runs scored over the next 10-12 years. Wright can’t match these numbers consistently. That’s all I am saying. If Wright consistently hits .310 17 home runs 100rbis 110runs scored over the next 10-12 years thats still awesome but not Zimmerman. If you add that Zimmerman is better defensively it’s a no brainier for me.
Can you honestly say Wright is a clutch player and can you honestly call him a superstar in this game ?
Yeah because he’s awesome at baseball.
Sure, David will hit over 30 homeruns, after he leaves the Mets. We Will trade him to the Phillies or the Braves and he will run rampant and become an MVP.
That was a horrible thing to say. Don’t say that again.
And he should have been MVP in 2007 (well maybe Pujols or Holliday, but definitely not that Phillie bitch).
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