In a move that comes as no surprise to me, the Mets may get their off season started by locking up their new wonder boy, Jeff Francoeur to a three-year deal according to a report by Marty Noble.
The Mets believe Francoeur will look sharp in their 2010 uni, so much so that they are inclined to approach him about signing him to a three-year contract that would allow him to become a big league Beau Brummel, if he so chose. They like what they have seen of him in and out of uniform — from his spirited demeanor to his nuclear arm to the two doubles he produced Saturday afternoon in their victory against the Nationals.
Francoeur has been the lone bright spot for the Mets in the second half as he continues to sizzle at the plate. He came through again in yesterday’s win over the Nationals with two more doubles, an RBI and two runs scored.
Noble correctly states that signing Francoeur for the next few seasons would stabilize two-thirds of the outfield and five-eighths of the starting lineup for next season. His presence on the team has reduced Ryan Church to just a blur.
Francoeur loves his new home and is thrilled to be playing in the spotlight of baseball’s grandest stage, New York City.
Francoeur now has batted .314 with the Mets and driven in 34 runs while scoring 30 in 63 games.
He’s as gritty and as driven as they come, and as Jerry Manuel said “This kid hates to lose.”
After making the final out in Friday nights loss, he reacted by smashing a dugout cooler to pieces in a show of rage.
“I think I can bring something here,” he said Saturday. “I’m not David Wright or Carlos Beltran, but what I can do is play hard and, I think, have some positive effect on the guys around me.”
Jerry Manuel said something I’ve been saying since the day he first became a Met. He talked about Francoeur’s intangibles – you know, those things that don’t show up in the box scores.
“If you were to talk intangibles,” Jerry Manuel said, “he’d rate way off the charts.”
Francoeur is a warrior that wants to play every inning of every game, and even the torn ligaments in his thumb won’t keep him out of the lineup. The best part is that at 25 years old, the best is yet to come.
We have a lot of work to do this off season, but signing Francoeur to a multi year deal is definitely a huge first step.
Let’s keep analyzing and refrain from useless, argumentative banter.
First batted ball stats–make your own assessments:
He’s dropped his GB% from 43.3% in ’07 and 44.9% in ’08 to 38% in ’09. Will it regress towards his career average of 42.6% or has he improved?
His LD%, 19.4 in ’07, 20.7 in ’08, 20.9 in ’09 has improved each year.
His FB%, 37.3% in ’07, 34.3% in ’08, 41.3% in ’09, reveals that fly balls have taken the place of those ground balls.
HR/FB% has dropped significantly since his first 2 years in the bigs (17%, 15%) to 9.8% in ’07, 6.5% in ’08, to 6.3% in ’09.
His k rate has improved to a respectable 15% this year. Based on his 19% career average, it’d be difficult to sustain that.
He has made improvements in his line drive rates from year to year. His ground ball rates have dropped and his fly ball rates have improved. Is this sustainable? He is striking out considerably less, but still is not walking, at all (3.7% this year vs a career avg. of 4.8%). His BABIP is .313, close enough to his career line of .308.
Let’s look at his propensity to make outs:
A weighted on base average (wOBA, which is just an adjusted OBP) of .316 (career .318) essentially means he is making outs 68.5% of the time, while playing a corner outfield position. Pagan’s career wOBA is .330 (making outs 67% of the time). Ryan Church’s career wOBA is .341. He is better than Timo Perez, whose career wOBA is something like .298.
Clearly, if Frenchy walked a little bit that number would go up. His career slug% of .430 is far from impressive for a 6 hitter. His career isolated power of .160 is okay…but its been down around .130 the past few years.
A 3 year contract, for whatever it is going to be worth (Omar will probably overpay), is not the way to proceed with Frenchy. Especially when we will have to cut payroll next year.
Martin is correct in saying he is an out-making machine. From the 6 hole, he will kill rallys if his k rate reverts to his career avg. of 20%.
Nice stats, Matt F.
I just want to say this about Francoeur: Look, if they sign him for 2 years at $3mm a year, I can deal with it, provided Francoeur plays against lefties (who he mashes). As Sam Page of Amazin Avenue pointed out, platooning him would make sense. However, if he’s the starter forget it. RBI’s are context dependent; I could make out every time and still have 100 RBI’s. No one needs to get offensive, but we should all agree on this: No matter what grit andheart and desire and other things Joe Morgan loves Francoeur brings, he’s still not that good at baseball. And, I’d rather have some one who says nothing in the clubhouse who OPSes 900 than a David Eckstein like player who sucks.
3mm a year would be fine, but he made 3.4 mm this year. I like Frenchy as our RF on a year to year basis. I’m opposed to the 3 year 6 mil deal that seems inevitable.
I agree with Martin that Jeff F. is overall one of the worst offensive starting right fielders in Major League baseball. However, Francoeur has one trait that the Mets lack; passion. I think the fact that Met ownership is willing to offer a multi year contract to a mediocre at best offensive right fielder says alot about the state of this team. The Mets are buying multi years of passion and grit. At this point that seems to be more important to ownership than numbers. So where does Jeff Francoeur rank among right fielders? Hmmm… I see Francoeur at one noch or so below JD Drew. Francocuer is JD Drew-lite. I like Francoeur and would love to see him playing right field hitting number 6 or 7th in the lineup. But if we need Francoeur to hit 5th or lower we’re screwed.
Well drew constantly has a .400 obp so he only makes outs like 60-62% of the time.
Aside from propensity to make outs, Frenchy’s career slugging percentage is a meager .430.
Like I said above, if his strikeout rate hovers around 15% instead of his 20% career mark, he may have taken a step in the right direction. History tells us it is an abberation, and it will regress to his career mark.
martin said:
“are you arguing against your own point? dont you see how the walks are a good thing and the .000 average in our example is misleading? please make an effort. use your head.”
My God, you are dense. I’ll try to dumb it down for you a bit. In the case above, (one out, and three walks) you would not say he made out 33% of the time. Why? Because walks don’t count.
So getting back to your original statement, saying someone makes out 70% of the time means, just what I said: He hits .300
It’s silly to try to talk to an angry moron.
I won’t be bothering with you anymore. You’re on your own now, pal.
Oops, not 33% it’s 25%. Doesn’t matter, the point is still valid, and Martin is still dim.
OBP is the percentage of times you are not out basically.
when a guy comes up to bat, he can either be make an out or not. a hit is one possibility. a walk is another possibility. neither of those things make outs. can you understand that? if i say that you are making outs, that means you are not reaching base. why would i mean hits only? i am not talking about batting average! i am talking about outs! please pay attention!
Keep the numbers coming Martin! Great stuff! Thanks for taking the time to post the stats!
C’mon guys ! Let’s make it to 100 comments !
Little less than 20 twenty away, we can do it !
OK, I’ll do my bit and give you 1 more. My opinion is that Frenchy should not get a 3 yr contract. His downside is swinging at too many sucker pitches off the plate and taking a K in critical situations. It is an easy way for a pitcher to get out of a jam. To give him a 3 yr contract implies that he will improve and grow as a player from where he is today. Yet he shows no sign of reducing his tendency to go after bad pitches. If he learned to be more selective at the plate, especially when the game is on the line, I would concur on the 3 yr contract. Until he demonstrates that improvement, 2 yrs is themost I would go. On top of that, I would want to know the outcome of his thumb surgery first. I make these conclusions from watching games, the sabre people can interpret the stats any way they like to come up with the same conclusion.
If this is true then I got to wait and see the terms of the contract before I can make my own judgement. I hope the Mets don’t over value Francoeur, he’s a solid player but don’t pay him like he’s a real good player.
martin you are a stupid piece of shit frenchy is the man
two statements there for me to address.
1. i am stupid piece of shit: true
2. frenchy is the man: not true.
He may be the man but he is statistically one of the easiest corner outfielders in the history of baseball to get out. It cannot be argued. It is fact. Whether you think that that matters in baseball is your opinion, but the fact itself cannot be ignored. That is far from sabermetrics, it is straight high school math.
Passion/intangibles are welcomed, but should only be on a year to year basis.
All you met fans will be bitching about Frenchy quicker than you bitched about our 2B who has won a world series and gets on base consistenly 37% of the time.
You all need to actually give sabermetrics some time. Try to learn to understand them. Once you do, you will realize that Francouer is conclusively a detriment to any team. You criticize us for only following boxscores and numbers and then blindly cite batting avg. and rbi’s because they are old traditional stats. Looking deeper can only tell you more. Don’t dismiss sabermetrics. The succesful teams follow them.
MATT, DON’T U REALIZE THAT MOST LIKELY INSTEAD OF THE 3YR/6M DEAL U FORSEE & OBJECT TO BY GOING TO ARBITRATION REGULARLY, HE’LL LIKELY BE AWARDED A FULL 6M BY THE FINAL HEARING. THE ONLY WAY TO CONTROL THAT COST ID TO INK HIM NOW! BTW, JUST FOR ARGUEMENT SAKE, LET’S ASSUME THE IMPROBABLE & HE UNDERGOERS AN EPITHANY AT AGE 26 FINISHING THE 2010 SEASON WITH 35HR, .268 BA, .388 OBP, .550 SLG, .838 OPS, WHAT WOULD U CALCULATE HIS ARBITRATION AWARD AT?
BTW, I BORROWED THOSE STATS FROM JASON BAY SO THE COMBINATION IS CERTAINLY DOABLE. WHETHER FRENCHY CAN OR CAN’T IS THE GAMBLE; BUT DO U WANT A CLUB HOPING FOR LESS TO CONTROL COSTS OR HOPING FOR MORE? IT’S SORT OF WHY I HATE FANTASY BASEBALL. I FIND IT IMPOSSIBLE TO ACTUALLY ROOT AGAINST A NYM OR ROOT FOR ANY OTHER PLAYER TO DO WELL AGAINST THE NYM. IF I EVER TRIED TO MY HEAD & HEART WOULD BOTH EXPLODE!
I don’t think he’d be offered that much in arbitration. I understand the philosophy, I’m just getting too anxious wondering what the deal is going to entail. If it’s 3 years upwards of 18-20 mil, I’m going to bug out.
MATT, DON’T BUG; JUST REALIZE YOU AREN’T CONTRIBUTING DIRECTLY TO ANY OVERSPENDING. WITH ALL YOUR STATS BELIEFS, I’M SUPRISED U DIDN’T REALIZE ABOUT 20 YRS AGO USA TODAY, I THINK, FEATURED A PIECE SHOWING THEN THAT MLB PAYROLLS HAD RISEN TOO HIGH TO BE COVERED BY ATTENDANCE “GATE” INCOME; IT WAS ALL IN THE LICENSING & TV REVENUES. I DOUBT YOUR FEARS ARE JUSTIFIED, I’D ANTICIPATE THE 3 YR TOTAL VALUE AT LESS THAN 10M CERTAINLY MODELED AFTER THOSE INKED BY REYES & WRIGHT. THIS IS THE NYM AFTERALL.
MATT, MARTIN, I WAS WILLING TO CONSIDER THERE MAY BE A USE FOR YOUR ANALYSIS; BUT YOU BOTH MADE INDICATIONS LATELY THAT U FAVOR PAGAN OVER FRENCHY? WTF, I’VE DEFENDED ANGEL BASED ON HIS LACK OF ACTUAL EXPERIENCE BY COMPILING ONLY ONE YEAR’S ABs % Gs OVER HIS 4 YR MLB CAREER. TO SAY U VALUE HIM OVER FRANCOEUR IS LUDICROUS AT BEST, STUPID AT WORST. WHERE DO YOU ACCOUNT FOR HIS NEEDING A GPS UNIT JAMMED UP HIS BUTT JUST TO MAKE IT AROUND THE BASES? SURELY OBP IS A USELESS STAT IF U END UP WIPING YOURSELF OFF THE BASES, NEVER SCORING. IN MY “VERY OLD SCHOOL” METHODOLOGY, I PREFER TO EVALUATE A PLAYER MORE BY CONSIDERING RUNS SCORED+RBI-HR TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MOST COTRIBUTION TOWARDS THE ONLY STAT THAT TRULY HAS MEANING, SCORBOARD! IF IT DOESN’T APPEAR ON A SCOREBOARD HOW CAN IT MATTER MORE THAN WHAT DOES R-H-E ARE THE STATS THAT STAND UP OVER TIME. EVERYTHING ELSE IS WINDOW DRESSING
Just saying that Pagan is comparable, actually better, when it comes to producing outs.
“You watch the game using a calculator and I’ll watch and score the game like always have with a scorebook tallying the hits, runs, RBI’s and homers.”
You dismiss OPS+ and, up until two or three years ago, probably had no idea what even OBP stood for — and still seem unaware as to why it’s an important statistic. And it is hardly a new-age, Bill James concept: Branch Rickey applied the same formula when putting together his rosters of position players. (http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/01/sports/keeping-score-looking-beyond-batting-average.html)
Spend a few minutes on FanGraphs.com, Baseball-Reference.com, or elsewhere to learn a little about advanced statistics — trust me, you don’t have to be a math major to understand how 99% of them work.
JE just out of curiosity what other major League right fielder would you compare Francocuer to? Which major league starting right fielder is comparable to Francocuer in your mind?
This year- Garrett Anderson, Vernon Wells, Alex Rios are close. Franceour is among the worst every year though which is the problem.
I don’t enjoy making those kinds of comparisons, LifeLong. Admittedly, I am no fan of Frenchy, although both sides of this discussion need to calm down just a little bit. Let’s keep in mind too that Marty Noble is no Peter Gammons: just because he suggests that a three-year extension is in the cards — was there any attribution for his assertion? — by itself, that is no reason to get too excited.
WHILE U SABREMATICIANS ARE CALCULATING ala BEANE I’D LIKE TO ADD A COUPLE OF MORE MID-20s STATS TO THOSE I EARLIER POSTED FOR SANDY KOUFAX:
SP#1 AGE 27
3 YR CAREER #s 24-24 4.02 ERA, 1.40 WHIP
SP#2 AGE 27
6 YR CAREER #’s 7-8 5.01 ERA, 1.55 WHIP
SP#2 AGE 26
6 YR CAREER #’s 18-13 3.45 ERA 1.46 WHIP
SP #1 WAS RANDY JOHNSON
SP #2 WAS AL LEITER
SP #3 WAS SANDY KOUFAX
SOMEHOW I DON’T QUITE BELIEVE THE SABREMETRIC READINGS ON THESE PLAYERS @ THEIR MID 20s WAS AN ACCURATE PORTRAYAL OF THEIR FUTURE ACCOMPLISHMENTS. ALL THE STATS IN THE WORLD ARE ONLY INDICATORS OF THE PAST WHICH MAY BE RELEVENT FOR A PLAYER WHO’S ALREADY FIRMLY AFFIXED MID-CAREER; BUT MID-20s? REDICULOUS ASSUMPTION!
I’M TRULY BEMUSED BY ALL THESE COMPLAINTS COMPARING JEFF TO UN-NAMED CORNERS OF ALL TIME? ALL TIME? WHER’D MATT F. GET THOSE NUMBERS FROM? DID THEY INCLUDE THE LIKES OF MIKE VAIL? BILLY BEANE? RON SWABODA? MIKE JACOBSON? DANIEL MURPHY? ALL THOSE THAT RIGHTLY OR WRONGLY FOUND THEMSELVES IN RF OR LF? HOW ABOUT COMPARING JEFF’S CONTRIBUTIONS TO THAT OF RYAN CHURCH? SOMEHOW I BELIEVE THAT LIKELY DOESN’T PROVE MARTIN & MATT’S POINT.
What does Sandy Koufax have to do with Jeff Francoeur? Are you saying Franceour has hall of fame potential? Are you trying to use Kofaux to disprove sabermetrics? Sabermetrics can not be disproved with the example of one player as many people try to do. Those are called outliers. They exist in any statisitical sample. The fact is that at least 95% of the time a sabermetric evaluation of a player will hold true.
Mets62, I understand that you feel very strongly about these issues, but typing a paragraph in capital letters is an annoying practice.
the Met team tht Met fans seem to want:
Jose Reyes ss
Orlando Hudson 2b
David Wright 1b
Daniel Murphy 1b
Carlos Beltran CF
Jeff Francoeur RF
Angel Pagen LF
Josh Thoel C
-
Better than the 2010 Phillies? No.
Better than the 2010 Braves? No.
Better than the 2010 Marlins? No.
Better than the 2010 Nationals? It would be a close race for 5th place!
Man don’t be so negative about the prospects of that team for 2010. In its basic makeup, it’s the same team as this year plus (hopefully) full seasons from Beltran, Reyes, and Wright.
For a closer analysis…
C Thole hopefully an upgrade over Santos/Schneider
1B Murphy should probably be a little better, still below league avg 1B though
2B Hudson will definitely be due to regress. He was below avg at 2B according to UZR but still better than Castillo. Very slight upgrade, maybe negligible
3B Wright power increases? please.
SS Reyes miles ahead of the replacement level garbage that played there this season; huge upgrade, likely 4 to 5 wins worth
LF Pagan is slightly above average. Shouldn’t be a starter.
CF Beltran much better than the Pagan/Sullivan/Martinez group. Huge upgrade… but will he be the same guy defensively?
RF Francoeur is due to regress because of a huge BABIP and other troubling factors such as he swings at anything and never walks. UZR rates him horribly this year (these stats probably skewed due to a lack of previous data at Citi Field, but he has been regressing defensively since 2007).
Overall, this team is not great… but definitely not a last place team. In a pretty strong division, 4th place would not be shocking.
My God Chris I wrote that sarcastically to demonstrate that if Met fans keep the same ole same ole we are doomed to another losing season. And you actually think the Mets will play that lineup? And you think it’s ok?!
Alright lets walk through a bit of this… Castillo is the most productive offensive player this year. Would you agree? Castillo’s numbers will improve nest year if Reyes hits in front of him and Wright behind him. There is no way in hell the Mets are playing Daniel Murphy at 1st base nest year and of course he is not going to hit clean up. And no I don’t have a good answer as to why the Mets c.. I’m sorry I can’t continue this lineup is laughable to even consider…
Haha, I know. I just rambled on way too long to say that lineup wouldn’t be “last-place” bad and would be much better than this year’s team (barring any more injuries). However, I apologize for randomly attacking you, as you made a rare good point for these message boards.
I actually would not be surprised if the Mets came out with that lineup next season given the current management of this team. This would be a travesty, as barring a serious upgrade of the pitching staff, this team could not compete as a ~.500 team.
Yes, Castillo has had a good season offensively, and I would probably say second behind Wright (Francoeur has been solid as a Met despite the horrible plate discipline, but with his ATL numbers his season is still bad). However, given his injury history and declining defensive skills, I would try to unload him this offseason because his value will never be higher again. If they can’t get adequate value in return, I would fully support bringing him back again.
Daniel Murphy is a below average hitter and should not be playing first base, a position where decent hitting is easy to find.
Unfortunately arbitrators still subscribe to traditional stats when analyzing players (as far as I know – is this still true?) so I’m sure Frenchy is going to get more in arbitration than he deserves, hence the Mets wanting to lock him up. I’m simply saying I hope we don’t overpay while citing the contradictory remarks from all of you saying “fire omar” “omar hasn’t got a clue” “omar is terrible” etc. yet all of a sudden are supporting him extending one of the most prolific out-producers in the game.
I have some hope for Frenchy, I do. I outlined why above – 1) dropped his k rate
2) dropped his gb rate
3) He was forced to look at his own scouting report when he came to the mets – maybe that opened his eyes…
And all of you expect 20 hrs from him but his career slug is .430 and his isolated power the past few yrs has been .130
He has been a power hitter in years.
And he was quite a headcase for the braves if you read all their blogs and news reports.
Who do you think you are man? Using stats to prove some guy is bad at baseball? I went to Citi Field to watch actually watch him play and Jeff Francoeur is the hardest working player I have ever seen, with grission rivaling the great David Eckstein.
Francoeur came up as a great prospect and is still 25 years old! Give him a break. Just look at how great he looks in a uniform (ignore the retarded looking face). He has to be a great baseball player. And don’t you see how well he throws the ball?
Quit reading the backs of baseball cards.
Right, I’ll ignore facts and solely trust my eyes. Why don’t they just let any old fan be a scout?
Nah, man…. you gotta be a “baseball man.” You had to have played the game and know what it’s like . Fans can’t just tell who is good at baseball… only old “baseball men.”
But at least the fans are better than those morons who use advanced statistical analysis using large sample sizes of data to determine who the best players are. Baseball isn’t about numbers… it’s about grit and heart and passion.
In summary: tons of data to determine the most efficient way to field a baseball team < gut feeling and looking good in a uniform. What do you think this is, a business?
I can’t tell if these replies are supposed to be sarcastic or just idiotic.
I guess I should have read further but from what people were saying yesterday, I couldn’t tell.
http://www.amazinavenue.com/2009/9/21/1046049/jeff-francoeur-lives-in-the-now
sums it up perfectly
i’ve stated many times in these comments statistics that show he’s improved many areas of his game this year. the problem is, 95% of the time those stats regress. we’ll see next year.
What are those graphs? This is baseball, not algebra. Idiot.
Haha I gotcha now
You’d better get your sarcasm meter checked, Matt! That took you way too long!
Dude you should see me on my 2007 blackberry blatantly ignoring what I have to do at work, simply to wait 3 minutes for the page to load and scroll down through 110 comments to fight back. It’s seriously pathetic. I need help.
So many lulz in here
Indeed! I was going to post “Lots of epiclulz here” but thought that would just add fuel to the fire. Well, you said it and I agree.
130 comments all about Franceour. I absolutely love this.
Hope to see you back, Frenchy. Thanks for being a gamer.
Martin is correct of course — over 162 games, there aren’t many hitters worse than Francoeur. Keep your “grit,” I like OBP. I’m sure you guys want Murphy and Santos as regulars next year too, so there’ll be 3 guys who can’t get on base in the lineup.