26
2009
Looking Out For Number 2
An article by Former Writers
After the 2007 season, the Mets faithful were thrilled by the acquisition of ace Johan Santana. Despite only poor team performances since his acquisition, Johan’s contributions to the team have been unending and undeniably huge, highlighted by his memorable effort on the 2nd-to-last-day of the 2008 season and the last game at Shea Stadium that I choose to remember. Last season, the Mets reeled in K-Rod who, while he’s had his moments of faltering, has solidified the closer position for the Mets. This offseason, the Mets will be looking to rebound from one of the most disappointing seasons (not ends to a season) in years, and likely on a limited budget, but let’s stop focusing on #1 this year. Instead, let’s start in the 2-spot.
The 2-spot as in the #2 pitcher, the Set Up man, and the 2-spot in the batting order. Before you rip my head off about worrying about the second spot in the order, trust me when I say I’ll explain later, and let’s start with the pitching.
We know the Mets won’t have Top Dollar to spend this offseason, so let’s be hopefully-realistic. Brandon Webb announced on Wednesday (Rotowire.com) that he would not accept an incentive-laden deal from Arizona, and would test free agency if his option is not picked up. Now, I said hopefully-realistic, so Brandon Webb would appear out, right? Not necessarily. His option that he wants the D-Backs to pick up is worth $8.5 million. That doesn’t mean we’d get him at $8.5 million, but it does make the day brighter. Would I want Brandon Webb pitching behind Johan in the Mets rotation next season and beyond, even WITH the injury this year? Absolutely. Do I think the Mets could sign him considering their likely budget? That remains to be seen (and I wouldn’t think the Wilpons would be willing to sign his paycheck, too, next year), but it brings up two interesting scenarios involving two free agent starting pitchers who missed the 2009 season. Yes, I’m talking about Ben Sheets.
I know, I know, he’s a risk, but it is high-risk, high-reward. Playing it safe doesn’t get you anywhere but the golf course in October. I’m not suggesting throwing cash after either of them, I’m suggesting (if I can play GM for a moment) making them bid against each other. Now, obviously, Webb is worth more than Sheets, but they are both in similar situations. In 2008, Sheets had the better ERA (3.03 to 3.30), and Webb edged Sheets in K/9 (7.3-7.2) and WHIP (1.20-1.24). As injury-prone as he is, Sheets has only pitched under 140 innings in a season once before 2009 and had NEVER pitched fewer than 100 in his career…not Webb’s 220 IP/year average (before 2009), but not as bad as you’d think. I say put them in a bidding war of sorts, but sign Sheets to the contract and save the money for other spots.
Now let’s get to the Pen. We moved Billy Wagner to Boston, so any hopes and dreams of him taking the role of setup man in 2010 are out the window. JJ Putz was damaged goods when we got him, but I’m not drinking the Kool-Aid that he’s a total bust…if we can keep him. After missing significant time, and with JJ no longer being a premier closer or even setup option, a one-year deal to keep him on again so he can try out for a closer’s job in 2011 may not be too far-fetched. Plus, with guys like Bobby Jenks and Jose Valverde likely on the market, he wouldn’t even have the benefit of being the best option of a weak field. I’m not suggesting the Mets pick up the option, but try to negotiate a different deal that has some incentives. Offer him $3 million and $3 million more in incentives ($1 million for ERA, $1 million for WHIP, and $1 million for the Playoffs, all with a minimum amount of IP). He won’t make $5 million in this free agent market (we’d pay him the other $1 million in a buyout), and if he has another bad/injury-plagued season, we pay him only $2 million extra for it.
Now for the 2-spot in the order. This is where we make the money back. By keeping Angel Pagan in the 2-spot (behind a hopefully-healthy Jose) and in LF and deciding on it sooner rather than later, it allows us to do a few more things. First, we can build his confidence and work with him on the things that he needs to work on (not going down that road right now). Also, Dan Murphy gets another season (or 2) of experience in the Minors, and, most importantly, we save the money by not needing a new left fielder to sign Nick Johnson, Hank Blalock, Adam LaRoche, or another 1st Baseman. On the flipside, keeping Murphy at first base and replacing Pagan with a slugger in LF bat takes that extra speed option out of the picture. As much as I like Murphy, the team is better off signing a first baseman and keeping Pagan in the lineup rather than vice versa.
I do agree with Joe that Pagan needs work on the fundamentals and everything else, but let’s get hopefully-realistic… We will not be able to afford to sign both a LF and 1B replacement this offseason, so it’s one or the other. Murphy’s looked somewhat sharp at 1B at times, but let’s not say that he’s suddenly a Gold Glover. And, no, Angel Pagan has not been perfect either, but as Joe pointed out, blunders aside, he’s been VERY good at the dish, and he, too, has had his moments of defensive glory. One of these guys (at least) will be in the Mets 2010 Opening Day lineup plans, and I feel more comfortable with Pagan than with Murphy at this point.
Now for everyone’s favorite part: the math. The Mets, in just Billy Wagner, Brian Schneider, and Carlos Delgado’s salaries, cut $27.4 million dollars from the books. Let’s say the Wilpons decide to cut $7.4 million from the budget (for ease of numbers’ sake…it’s about 5% of the total 2009 salary). That leaves us $20 million. Sheets and Putz total to around $10 million ($7 million for Sheets seems reasonable to me considering his injury history and lack of Scott Boras as an agent), and our first base solution could come for about $6-8 million, leaving some more money for a rainy day, like November 14, 2139 (when Uncle Bernie is released from prison). Jokes aside, adding these 2 players (and keeping JJ) for 2010 would greatly improve our team. Just as a projection (assuming no other signings):
Lineup:
SS-Reyes
LF-Pagan
3B-Wright
CF-Beltran
1B-Johnson/Blalock
RF-Francoeur
C-Santos/Thole
2B-Castillo (only because I prefer placing speed and contact ability in the 8-hole instead of in the 7-hole)
Rotation:
Santana
Sheets
Pelfrey
Maine
Perez/Niese
Bullpen (Big 3):
F. Rodriguez
Putz
Feliciano
I’m not saying this offseason is as easy as 1-2-3 (SP-1B-RP) to go from 2009′s team to a pennant-contender, but it’s certainly a jump-start in the right direction and an instant and vast improvement. There are other holes to fill (like the one between the ears of certain people within the Mets organization), but you’ve got to start somewhere, so I say start by looking out for #2.
About the Author: Former Writers
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I’m not entirely sold on the whole Sheets idea, but I do think your plan is well thought out and makes sense. I think declining Putz’s option and re-signing him to a $3 million dollar deal would be a good idea for Putz and the Mets. I also like either Johnson or LaRoche at first base, I dont like Blalock. What about Mark DeRosa? As for Sheets, we have too many pitchers coming back with injury concerns already and adding another one into the mix sounds like a bad idea.
I dont like this. 4 out of the starters will be recovering from injuries
CAPSLOCK=DISABILITY ACCOMODATION
AYE, GREAT POINT; BUT ALSO NEED TO POINT OUT THAT NOT ONE “RECOVERY” GAMBLE TAKEN BY THIS TEAM HAS RALLY EVER WORKED OUT. PUTZ IDEA IS CERTAINLY WORTH IT; BUT IF PAGAN IS MORE THAN AN ENDY ROLE REPLACEMENT WE’RE IN DEEP DO-DO. UNFORTUNATLY THE GAPS IN HIS INSTINCTS ARE NOT FIXABLE BY REPEATED PRACTICE, HE NEEDS GAME PLAY & ON A TEAM RELIANT FOR NEAR PERFECT PLAY WE CAN’T AFFORD ANOTHER PUNCH & JUDY CLUELESS IN FLUSHING REGULAR ACCORDING TO COTS THE NYM COMMITMENT FOR 2010 PAYROLL IS $92,113,000 DOWN FROM WHAT USA-TODAY REPORTS AS 149,373,987 THIS SEASON. THE DROP OFF IS $57,260,987. I BELIEVE THE APPROVED ’10 PAYROLL IS LIKELY TO BE AROUND 130M LEAVING APPROX 37M TO INVEST IN REPLACEMENTS/IMPROVEMENTS. JON HEYMAN REPORTS A SUPPOSED INTERST IN CUBS DERREK LEE, WHICH I DON’T FATHOM AS HE’S GOT 13M LEFT FOR ’10 & A NO-TRADE LIKELY REQ AN EXTENSION @ AGE 35(3YRS DELGADO’S Jr). LaROCHE WAS DYING FOR AN ATL RETURN EVER SINCE THEY DEALT HIM TO BUCS & MOST LIKELY WILL CHOOSE TO STAY W/HOMETOWN DISCOUNT. IF DELGADO’S BATSPEED CAN BE DETERMINED EQUAL TO THAT OF APRIL, ’09. I’D PREFER HIM @ LOW GUARANTEE+INCENTIVES, DESPITE HIS RECENT INJURIES STILL GIVES HIM 612G PLAYED OVER PAST 5 YRS COMPARED TO LEE’S 650G OVER SAME PERIOD OR AN AVG OF 7.6G/YR. IN NL I PREFER LH 1B DUE TO PICKOFF USE. A LH POWER BAT FITS OUR LINEUP BEST AS #4, IN MY OPINION. RE. DELGADO, BATSPEED IS A M U S T! 1 YR ONLY IS PERFECT.
THERE IS NO WAY THAT TEAM YOU ARE SUGGESTING WILL MAKE IT TO THE POSTSEASON….te offense isn’t even improved….the rotattion sheets?? really?? hell be injured after 2 starts…and the bullpen, well it’s not even finished.
Santana could come back and pitch like a 2 after his second surgery on the same elbow. Then he could be our no. 1 and our no. 2. With this team, nothing is assured nest year. Rooting for this team is like crossing a rope bridge in a hurricane. you are just happy it isn’t a tornado.
CAPSLOCK=DISABILITY ACCOMODATION
WELL, JDON, IF UNCERTAINTY IS YOUR PROVLEM I SUGGEST U TRY THE OTHER MLB TEAM IN TOWN, NOT OUR BELOVED NYM U JUST NEED TO GET TO ACCEPT & GET USED TO A FEW SIMPLE RULES: 1)UNCERTAINTY IS WHY U ACTUALLY HAVE TO PLAY 162G, 2) THERE WILL BE NO LUXURY TAXES INCURRED NO MATTER HOW TRIVIAL AN AMOUNT OR HOW DESPERATLY THAT ONE ADDITIONAL PLAYER IS NEEDED. 3) IT’S BETTER TO BE A METS’ FAN THAN A PIRATES, ROYALS, REDS, BRAVES FAN. ALL ONCE POWERHOUSE REGULAR CONTENDERS WHO ALL OVER TIGHTENED THEIR BELTS. AND WHOSE FANS PRAY FOR AN OPPORTUNITY TO REACH THAT ROPE BRIDGE REGARDLESS OF WEATHER FORCAST.
Hate this idea.Way too many,people coming off injury’s.Thats alot of hoping and praying.I would agree signing JJ,or Dotel for less money.Using Parnell in a trade for HalladayI dont Pagan should be the starter in left.I think he would be a great 4th OF.Murphy will be a servicable 1st baseman.But Thole needs to go back to the minors.So i would sign a starting catcher ,Barajas is my 1st choice.Figgins is the free-agent i would sign to play left.This is my roster
Reyes-Figgins-Beltran-Wright-Murphy-Francour-Barajas-Castillo
Bench AHern-Evans-Pagan-Santos
Santana-Halladay-Pelfrey-Marquis-Perez/Redding
The pen KRod(closer)Maine(setup)Dotel-Feliciano-Stokes
Iam figuring too get Halladay we would lose Parnell-Niese-FMart and minor leaguers.Only 3 free-agents and 1 big trade
CAPSLOCK=DISABILITY ACCOMODATION
STEVE, ANOTHER INTRIGUING POSSIBILITY IS THIS… IN A SEEMINGLY UNRELATED STORY, ROSENTHAL OPINES RAYS MAY BE SHOPPING UPTON, WHILE I DOUBT WE HAVE THE GOODS TO ACQUIRE HIM. IT MAY MEAN THEY MAY BALK AT CRAWFORD’S 10M OPTION MAKING HIM, IN MY OPINION, THE TOP F/A TARGET FOR NYM’S LF OPENNING.
Metsfan if they can get Crawford i would do that.But they will have to trade someone for Crawford?I would rather trade for Halladay,and sign a free-agent to play Left.Pagan has to start on the bench,as an insurance policy,in case Beltran gets hurt.I hope Minaya has a plan,not just a bandaid?
FYI, CRAWFORD’S DEAl EXPIRES AT END OF THIS SEASON MAKING HIM A POTENTIAKL F/A UNLESS RAYS P/U HIS $10M OPTION FOR 2010. NORMALLY I’D THINK THE OTION IS A NO-BRAINER; BUT IF THEY’RE SHOPPING UPTON AS ROSENTHAL REPORTS, PERHAPS THEY’RE CONSTRAINING PAYROLL FASTER THAN NYM. EITHER WAY, METS NEED TO KEEP THEIR POWDER DRY & BE READY TO POUNCE JUST IN CASE. 2 ME, PAGAN IS PURELY AN ENDY TYPE; BUT BETTER DUE TO SWH, MORE OPTIONS, MORE VERSATILITY. PAGAN’E BIGGEST ISSUE IS LACK OF EXPERIENCE AS IN GAMES PLAYED NOT YEARS ON A ROSTER. IN 4 YRS HE ACTUALLY HAD FEWER ABs THAN REYES HAD IN JUST ’07. WITH BOTH LEADOFF TYPES, REYES IS A GOOD COMPARISON. PAGAN FOR #4, SULLIVAN FOR #5, REED FOR BISONS. CRAWFORD FOR LF, FIGGINS AS FALLBACK(THOUGH NYY RUMORED AS INTERESTED)NEITHER ARE REPPED BY “DARTH BORAS”.
Finally someone that agrees with me on Murphy and and Pagan. Maybe Murphy won’t be handed a starting job again.
Maybe the Mets can pick up Rich Harden since it appears that the Cubs have shut him down. They can use him for their 2010 rotation and as of now he has a winning major league record and is still under 30 yeras old.
A change in organizatons can do a player good- Look at what Frenchie has brought to the NY Mets- a winning attitude.
Rich Harden has amazing stuff and amazing potential. But, he throws alot of pitches, doesn’t go deep into games. Also, he can be inconsistent. He strikes out alot of hitters. He’s a high risk-very high reward type pitcher.
Lackey’s a type A. Harden’s a type A. Webb’s a type B but with that option. Bedard is a type B. Any legit #2 is going to be an injury risk, so we’ll all have to accept that and hope for the best. Sign the cheapest and parlay it with a #5 type.
LF is the last need to fill. Literally anyone can play LF. Pagan, F-mart, Carter, Jesus Feliciano, me, Joe D., METS62FAN, absolutely anyone.
Pitching and 1B should be the primary focus.
MATT, BESIDES MYSELF, IT’S FAIRLY EASY TO PROVE U WRONG…MOISES ALOU, DANIEL MURPHY. HAVE U NOT BEEN PAYING ATTENTION TO CITI’S ACREAGE? OR OUR NEED TO ADD POWER(HR,RBI)?NO, IT’S NOT JUST ANYONE. WHEN I SAW HOW INEPT HOLIDAY LOOKED DEFENSIVLY IN LF DURING THE CARD’S VISIT, I BECAME QUITE AWARE OF THAT.
NEWS RAYS MAY BE SHOPPING UPTON WAS BUOYANT TO MY HOPES THEY MAY BE TIGHTENING THE BELT, POSSIBLY CHOOSING NOT TO P/U CRAWFORD’S $10M OPTION AS I’M CONVINED HE’S OUR ABSOLUTE ‘BEST’ ANYONE(TO USE YOUR CHOICE) JUST IMAGINE AN ALINGMENTS OF CRAWFORD-BELTRAN-FRANCOEUR. COVERAGE ANYONE? PRODUCTION? PERHAPS BELTRAN’S KNEES WILL FINELY GET A NEEDED REST?
Metsfan62 i agree.We need some speed out in left.You cannot just put anyone out in left.But if you cant get Crawford ,Figgins would be a good pickup.I dont want the Mets to sign Dye.
There’s a lot of demand for Figgins. The Chi-Sox may throw a lot of money at him. We won’t stay in any type of bidding war.
I’m not down on F-mart or Pagan, and I’m fairly comfortable letting them battle it out in spring training, so long we have Delgado, or similar power bat, at 1B, and a #2 SP.
I’ve said numerous times the Mets should have never traded Endy. I would start Endy in LF for defense alone if I had the power to. The Mets don’t seem to operate under the philosophy of over-emphasizing defense, therefore, they literally have a ton of options for LF, which I named above.
I have no expectation for Holliday, Bay, Crawford, etc. manning LF. I’m not sure how any of you could with the talks of cutting payroll, and more obvious needs in our rotation.
Maybe my point is better stated as: Would you rather have depth questions/holes at LF, 1B, or SP? Clearly, the answer would be LF.
MATT, UNDERSTAND ABOUT PAYROLL CUTTING; BUT CONSIDERING IT WAS @ $149M THIS SEASON AND THERE’S ONLY 93M COMMITTED FOR ’10, INCL PLANNED CONTRACT RAISES/INCREASES. THERE CERTAINLY SHOULD BE ENOUGH WRIGGLE ROOM TO ACCOMPLISH BOTH, ONLY ADDITIONS TO SP,LF,IB,C ARE NOT ALL LIKELY TO BE OFF THE TOP SHELF THEY’VE NORMALLY SHOPPED OFF OF IN ACQUIRING BELTRAN,PEDRO,ATTEMPTING DELGADO, GETTING WAGNER,K-ROD. THOUGH THEY DON’T HAVE TO BE OFF-THE-RACK EITHER. CREATIVITY WILL BE NEEDED. A MARQUIS INSTEAD OF A LACKEY. SERIOUSLY ASCERTAINING DELGADO’S VIABILITY/BATSPEED FOR 1 MORE YR, VULTURING ON A POTENTIAL CRAWFORD AVAILABILITY, RENEGOTIATING PUTZ’ OPTION, LETTING THE MKT OR LACK THEREOF DEVELOP FULLY BEFORE SHOWING INTEREST IN SOME NEEDS(MOLINA?). PHL & ATL BOTH IMPROVED IN ’09 WITHOUT DRASTIC PAYROLL INCREASES BY WAITING SOME SITUATIONS OUT. PATIENCE,PTIENCE,PATIENCE,”POUNCE WITH AUTHORITY” SHOULD BE THERE MODUS OPERANDI IN ’10 (A PREDICTED DOWN F/A MKT)
Harden is lights out.But he is alot like Maine.He throws too many pitches per inning.The Mets need halladay,he will make the bullpen better by giving them a rest every 5th day.
CAPSLOCK=DISABILITY ACCOMODATION
STEVE, QUESTION SURROUNDING HALLADAY ACQUISITION IS WHETHER WE’VE GOT THE RIGHT SORT OF CHIPS TO DEAL FOR HIM AS HE ISN’T A F/A UNTIL AFTER THE ’10 SEASON. UP UNTIL THE FRANCOER ENDORSEMENT I WAS VERY NON-COMMITTAL BET LACKEY & MARQUIS AS A #2 ADDITION AS THEY’RE THE SAME AGE & RELATATIVLY SIMILAR SEASONS GIVING MARQUIS THE EDGE WITH PITCHING EFFECTIVLY IN BOTH CHICAGO & COLORADO THE PAST COUPLE OF SEASONS, 2 VERY CHALLENGING HITTER’S VENUES. IN CITI? PITCHER’S HEAVEN BY COMPARISON! I BELIEVE 15M PER FOR 3 OR 4 MAY GET THE DOG WALKED WITH EITHER THOUGH LACKEY CLAIMS TO BE WANTING CC & JOHAN MONEY. OUTRAGEOUS, IN MY OPINION, CERTAINLY SCARES OFF THE LOOKIELOO TIRE KICKERS. EACH OF OUR PROJECTED 3-4-5 HAS AN INDIVIDUAL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED. NYM SHOULD IDENTIFY EACH ONE WITH AN EXPERT SECURED TO WORK WITH THAT ONE SP ON THAT ONE NEED, BE IT CONTROL,SELF-CONFIDENCE,SECONDARY PITCHES. JUST AS THEY HIRED RICKEY TO ADDRESS BASERUNNING/STEALING OBVIOUSLY THE PITCHING RAW TALENT IS THERE; BUT POLISHING EACH INTO THE JEWEL THEY CAN BE IS BEYOND ANY ONE COACH DUE TO DIVERSIFICATION. WARTHEN SHOULD MAINLY FOCUS ON BULLPEN CREW’S IMPROVMENTS. WHATEVER IT TAKES, THE INVESTMENT IN NEEDED INDIV IMPROVMENTS NEEDS TO BE MADE. IF PEREZ WILL LISTEN TO HIS IDOL, VALENZUELA, GO HIRE FERNANDO FOR A ST ONE-ON-ONE WITH OLLIE. GALBRAITH PROVED THE BENEFIT OF INDIVIDUAL ATTENTION IN THE WORKPLACE, THE MLB JOB IS NO EXCEPTION.