24
2009
Pelfrey, the $15 Million Man?
An article by Jessep
I recently wrote an article about the reasons why Derek Lowe would not have been a wise investment, paired with why Oliver Perez was the best possible option if the Mets wanted to sign a free agent. It doesn’t mean Perez was a good signing, it means Lowe for 60 mil/4 years would have been a WORSE signing. Perez’s contract simply was the lesser of two evils. Unless somebody can give me a reasonable argument to have paid Jon Garland a high figure salary over 3 years prior to his 2009 season, then there is no other free agent option the Mets could have acquired.
Let’s ignore Perez for now. There seems to be a love affair going on between some Mets fans and Derek Lowe. The fact he is 36 years old, and having one of his worst seasons, while getting paid $15 million dollars and guaranteed that money until he’s 40 years old, for some reason is ignored by many. Allow me to finally put an end to this love affair.
When deciding a pitcher’s value, I personally like to first examine stats that they have control over. A pitcher either controls the at bat, or the hitter does. Thus, to me, Strikeouts and Walks are very important. There are a lot more stats out there that can really break down a player’s season or career. For example, somebody raised the point recently that Atlanta’s defense has been poor. Fair enough, but they have the same amount of errors as the Mets, so I’m not sure what putting him in a Mets uniform would have accomplished? The days of examining a pitcher based on W-L and ERA are quickly becoming ancient. Scott Feldman is 13-4, are we going to anoint him one of the best pitchers in baseball? Of course not.
In many ways, W-L can be a product of your team, while ERA can give you a false sense of just how good the pitcher really is. A great example would be Johan Santana versus Wandy Rodriguez. Who is having a better season? Santana in 25 starts is 13-9 with a 3.13 ERA, striking out 146, and walking 46 in 166.2 IP. Rodriguez in 25 starts is 12-7 with a much sexier 2.89 ERA, striking out 142, and walking 53 in 155.2 IP. Before stats like WHIP came into play, many would have said Rodriguez is having the better year. However, if you’re faced with those two options, I’d be shocked if anybody said Santana isn’t having the better season, even though his ERA doesn’t show it.
To be safe, I examined Lowe’s season with mostly traditional stats, such as Strikeouts, Hits, etc. Just to be on the safe side, I’ll explain the stats briefly that I used that in some case you may not be familiar with.
WHIP – Walks plus hits, divided by Innings Pitched.
GB/FB – Ratio of groundballs in play versus fly balls
BIPA – Balls in Play Average. This is a measure of Batting Average Against, not including Home Runs or Strikeouts.
DIPS ERA – A pitchers ERA, independent of the defense around him. Not a stat I generally pay attention to, but since somebody mentioned defense, I thought I’d share.
So, wrapping this all up, I ask a question. Right now, would you say Mike Pelfrey’s season is worth $15 million? Pelfrey is earning just under $3 million this year, and he’s 11 years younger than Lowe. Take a look at these numbers. They are having VERY similar seasons, yet one of them is 25 and improving, and the other is 36 and regressing and making almost $12 million more.
One thing to note, Lowe has started in 3 more games this season than Pelfrey. While some stats can remain a true measure even without equal starts, such as WHIP etc, I included a pace for stats like Hits, BB, K’s, just to give you an idea of where Pelfrey’s pace is when he hits 27 starts.
The first row is Lowe through yesterday’s start, the second is Pelfrey’s numbers as of today, and the third is Pelfrey’s pace up to 27 starts.
| GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | WHIP |
| 27 | 158.2 | 182 | 79 | 8 | 50 | 82 | 1.46 |
| 24 | 140.2 | 156 | 73 | 9 | 50 | 82 | 1.46 |
| 27 | 157 | 176 | 82 | 10 | 56 | 92 | 1.47 |
| K/9 | K/BB | .AVG | .OBP | .SLG | GB/FB |
| 4.65 | 1.64 | .294 | .346 | .410 | 1.35 |
| 5.25 | 1.64 | .280 | .345 | .393 | 1.13 |
| 2B | 3B | HB | GDP | BAIP | DIPS ERA |
| 40 | 4 | 3 | 22 | .306 | 3.82 |
| 32 (36 pace) | 2 | 7 | 13 (15 pace) | .304 | 3.98 |
Pelfrey to me has had a below average year. I would like to think most fans would agree. Also, I am sure most are on board in thinking Pelfrey is NOT a #2 starter. One day, maybe. He’s only 25. Tom Seaver has said that a pitcher doesn’t truly learn how to pitch in the big leagues until he’s hit 100 starts. Pelfrey is at 73 right now for his career.
My point is this. Their numbers are very similar. The K/BB, WHIP, .OBP against, BAIP, even the DIPS ERA are proof that their seasons in terms of their own performance, independent of the team they pitch for, have been very familiar.
Yet, one of them is cashing a $15 million paycheck this season, and the other is continuing to try and grow within an organization at the young age of 25. So tell me this, would you say Pelfrey’s season earned him $15 million? I’d certainly say no to that. However, I would say that there is more of a realistic chance that when Lowe’s contract expires with the Braves after 3 more seasons, Pelfrey will have earned his paychecks, while Lowe will simply set the Braves back not only in their rotation, but in their team salary as well.
In conclusion, we had Derek Lowe pitch on our team this year. Except, he was 6-7, 230 pounds, and aged 25 making just under $3 million. The Mets didn’t need Derek Lowe this season, and they certainly do not need him at age 37, 38, or 39. Not signing Lowe, allows the Mets to pursue a true #2 type starter in John Lackey or Rich Harden. A move that not only would make the Mets a better team in the standings, but it will also make pitchers like Mike Pelfrey and John Maine better, because they won’t be asked to be something they aren’t.
About the Author: Michael J. Branda
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You’ve really been going all out to prove that not signing Lowe was a good decision, and you’ve done a really good job. It seems that you put alot of work into the comparisons and they make perfect sense. Pelfrey also strikes out a few more batters, making him less dependant on defense. Although Mike is not as proficient as Lowe in getting DPs, the overall numbers end up about that same. Pelfrey should have a few more wins, with some better run support.
I’m interested to see the amount of money, if at all, the Mets will spend this offseason. Harden and Lackey are attractive options and would fit in nicely to this team. Maine is a serious question mark, while Perez is a headache, but i’d rather keep him around as a 5 starter.
You don’t need groundball double plays if you’re not putting runners on in the first place
derek lowe instead of perez….dont understand your comparison. He still would have been better than perez.
So you’d wanna pay a #4 starter 15 million over 4 years? Perez’s contract was a gamble but at least you can justify not putting him in the rotation. Lowe would have been the most expensive 5th starter by the time he was 2 yrs in. Not signing Lowe lets the Mets sign a real #2, something if they signed Lowe they would not be able to do because he’d be expected to be their #2 starter
If in fact they do sign a #2, and who that guy is.
Agreed but you HAVE to assume over the next 3 years the Mets will try to bring in a legit #2 guy. You don’t sign a guy like Derek Lowe for 4 yrs, 15m and not pen him into the top of your rotation. It’s just not logicial. If the Mets have Pelf and Lowe on their team right now, the stats above PROVE they’d be paying one guy $12m OVER what a pitcher giving them the same performance is giving them.
You can’t have eventually your #4 starter making 15 mil and then trying to get a guy like Lackey here for the same $
Your case for not bringing Lowe here is a good one Jessep, I’ll give you that. But you put aside the Ollie contract issue to easily IMO. I can’t see a justification for those dollars either. regardless of Perez and Lowe, bottom line the Mets need starting pitchers. That is a undisputable fact, most of our starting rotation is weak at best. I just don’t have confidence in the management team to get the best deal for our team, this off season will be very interesting to see what Omar does.
Could’ve done this post in about 1000 less words.
Using those great defense independent pitching stats:
Lowe
FIP: 3.71
tERA: 3.80
Pelfrey
FIP: 3.97
tERA: 4.25
Using the Fangraphs WAR to $$ calculator, Lowe has been worth $13.2 million this season and Pelfrey $9.9 million. Meanwhile Oliver Perez has been worth -$2.9 million. That’s right, a negative number. I’m not sure how you can say with a straight face that you still prefer the Ollie signing to the Lowe signing.
By the way, Pelfrey is having an almost identical season to last year. The only difference? The Mets had a good defense last season and this year it absolutely stinks, skewing his ERA. His defense independent pitching stats are pretty much the same.
I prefer the Ollie to Lowe signing. Call me crazy. I just get upset over the fact that Perez is a plain head case. If you’re going just on this year, obviously Lowe looks like the better candidate. But Lowe is getting into the twilight of his career, and Perez into his prime. It’s very weird to say Perez is going to become anything great at all in his career, but I still believe in his ability because the stuff is there and always has been there. At 37, 38 and 39 Lowe will be paid 15 million, and if 60 MM/4 Years were his demands, I couldn’t give it to him.
I’m gonna go ahead and call you crazy then, haha. The Ollie signing was and still is a total disaster. There’s basically no chance Ollie lives up to his contract, much less pitches better than Lowe. I think Lowe will come close to living up to his contract. He certainly will for this season.
The Lowe signing might not be as bad as the ollie signing, but to think a guy who is in his mid 30s and has never been a number 1 caliber pitcher is making the kind of money Lowe is making is somewhat absurd. Lowe is a good pitcher dont get me wrong, but he is making the kind of cash that most #1 starters make, not #2 guys. I know atlanta has been using him as a number 1, but maybe that is one of their faults, they lack a true #1
As for Ollie, I think it was the final option Minaya had for the pitching staff, I think that is the primary reason it took so long for a deal to be complete, minaya was trying to fill the void with Wolf, Marquis, Lowe etc, but never was able to get a deal done, so his only options left were to take a chance on the prospects or over pay for Perez.
I once held to the belief that Perez had age on his side too. Sadly, I was dreadfully wrong. Lowe will continue to pitch well and earn every penny of his contract. He has a smooth fluid delivery that has served him well, and he can still pitch effectively. Because he doesn’t rely on an overpowering fastball, but mostly spotting the ball ala Moyer or Glavine, he should be fine.
Perez on the other hand has been maintaining the pretense of a starter with potential because of his one big season which wasn’t that big once you closely examine his stats. There have been hundreds if not thousands of pitchers with great stuff who never made it passed AAA. Thanks to a desperate Pirates organization Perez made the jump, but they came to their senses and sent him back to AAA three years later.
Enter Omar and the Mets…