7
2009
Should The Mets Become Sellers By The Trade Deadline?
An article by Doug Branch
If the Mets lose 4-5 to the Pirates and Nationals, what happens in the coming weeks when they face the Phillies, Yankees, and Rays? They will need high-powered binoculars to locate Philadelphia, that’s what.
With Mike Pelfrey and John Maine graciously serving up batting practice to the opposition, the mantra is becoming: Santana and Livan and pray for a hurricane. Seriously, by the time schools let out, the Mets could drop out of contention faster than a released cinder block into the murky East River.
Here’s a theory: The Mets become sellers by the trade deadline. Before any baseball columnist raises the question, you heard it hear first. Perish the thought or proactive thinking? I say the latter.
You can’t blame the injuries on the downfall of this team. There were holes (and we have cited them galore) on this team and maybe the organization has to take a step back and do some rebuilding. And, not on the fly.
Furthermore, who is the one player that can garner a King’s ransom in return, besides Oliver Perez? Excluding Santana, of course, David Wright, and an injured Jose Reyes, who would not be put on the market in mid-season, and Frankie Rodriguez.
Yes, the answer is, Carlos Beltran.
Before anyone asassinates the messenger, here me out.
First of all, if Beltran was so embarrassed by the Mets play against Pittsburgh (while he was infirmed), why did he loaf on the base paths and get nailed at third last night? You lead by example, and for an all-star caliber player, he sure is careless on the bases.
Nevertheless, he has been a near flawless player this year and parting would cause sweet sorrow. Unless an enticing bounty was returned.
The Red Sox would salivate at the thought of adding his potent bat and lethal glove to a lineup that has lost Big Papi to an unknown optometrist. Moreover, Theo Epstein would get a chance to stick it to the Yankees for signing Mark Teixeira.
Think about a lineup with Beltran, Pedroia, Youk, Drew, Lowell, and Jason Bay. If Papi does get straightened out, then beware the Evil Empire.
From the Mets perspective it would help restock the team with some sorely needed youth. You only make the trade if you get back Jacoby Ellsbury (.311 & 22 steals), who has the speed to roam Citi Field with aplomb, Clay Buchholz (4-0, 1.74 ERA at Triple A), and SS Jeff Reed-.288 (Lugo would be healthy by the trade deadline) who can also spell Luis Castillo.
By the way, Buchholz has already done something no Mets pitcher ever has, that is toss a no-hitter (he did it as a rookie in 2007 against the Orioles). Getting out from under Beltran’s massive contract (all the signs point to his body breaking down before the contract expires) is incentive enough. Then the Mets re-invest the money in a power-hitting first baseman (that’s around $32 million off the books minus the two Carloses) or corner outfielder.
Food for thought in a season that is starting to turn rancid.
About the Author: Doug Branch
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Really trade Carlos Beltran? Give me a Break! You can’t trade someone like Carlos Beltran away for someone who is basically a contact hitter in Jacoby Ellsbury, just because he has speed doesn’t mean he can do everything. Clay Buchholz is an OK Pitcher, just because he threw 1 no hitter doesn’t mean he’s worth it. Get outta here, that would be a foolish deal. Beltran has Power, Speed and he’s a great fielder, Ellsbury has Speed and he can Hit for Average not power. So I don’t think that’s a smart idea, just me tho.
are you kidding me,trade beltran. we already got most of our core players down now you want to give up beltran for ellsbury,bucholtz,and some guy named reed.# 1 when reyes comes back you wont need ellsbury.#2 our rotation is good enough to win.# 3 if your going to trade beltran to boston i would trade him and Jonathan niese for Bay and lester and we already know boston would not do that.
Beltran? He, Johan and KRod are the 3 you cant trade.
Trading Beltran is not giving up on THIS season, it’s giving up until at LEAST 2012, when Beltran’s contract expires. Otherwise, Beltran helps us more than anything we’d get in return for him. When you trade a player as a seller, you are saying “This player would do us better over the course of his remaining contract if we sold him at current value”. For teams with final-year players (Indians with CC last year, Twins with Johan a year and a half ago, etc), they admitted defeat for the year (in the case of Cleveland) and decided that the upcoming season would be a rebuilding process (in the case of the Twins). Selling Beltran now not only admits defeat for 2009, but makes 2010, 2011, and possibly 2012 rebuilding years for the Mets.
If that is what you are suggesting, then Ellsbury becomes lumped in with the Mets’ current prospects (F-Mart, Evans, Murphy, etc) and Buchholz becomes lumped in with Niese, Holt, Jenrry Mejia, etc fighting for spots behind Johan and with Pelfrey and Maine in the rotation. Oh, and Jeff Reed becomes a CAREER BACKUP behind Wilmer Flores and Jose Reyes.
So, what you’re suggesting is to trade 3 (maybe 4) seasons to devote to rebuilding by getting rid of Beltran (who’s contract runs through 2012), along with the only constant we have in the outfield, to get Ellsbury in center, get what would project as our #5 starter in Buchholz (assume that Johan, Pelfrey, and 2 of Niese, Holt, Mejia, and Maine wind up better than him, as they’d project to be), and a backup infielder? Are you out of your mind?
I can understand dumping Delgado at the end of 2009 (or even selling him at the deadline if he’s healthy and we need to sell) and I agree that the money there can be better spent, but not with Beltran. Beltran is the game’s premier center fielder, the game’s premier OUTFIELDER. If he’s got 3 years left in him, I’d take that over 10 of Ellsbury. Because after that 3rd year, you can use the freed up money from Beltran to go after another outfielder, or maybe even have his replacement waiting in AAA, ready to go. I’d be much happier WITHOUT Buchholz in the rotation after this year if it means missing out on a current piece of the puzzle (if we can get him for an expendable part I’d be all for it). He just doesn’t fit into our long-term plans. With Johan and Pelfrey, we’ve got 2 spots in our rotation filled through 2013 (when Johan’s contract expires). I don’t think he’d surpass either of them, and I think that at LEAST one of the guys we’ve got cooking up in the Minors right now will be better than him in 2 years (2011), so he factors in as a back-of-the-rotation pitcher for us except for this year and maybe next year.
I’m not knocking Ellsbury, he’s a fine player, and I’d be all for getting Buchholz, but not for the reason you suggested. Buchholz could fill a decent hole for us in the rotation this year (Johan, Pelf, Maine, Livan, and Buccholz), and he could probably do a decent job next year, too as our #5. But you don’t sell a Bentley, even one that may only hold up for a few more years, to get a Mustang and a Camaro.
To add on to my already essay-length post (sorry…):
I just did some quick research. The Mets will free up $27.55M just from Delgado, Wagner, Church (assuming a trade) and Redding after this year. That money alone should be enough to sign Matt Holliday and Erik Beddard, or at the very least Adam LaRoche and Erik Bedard (with money to spare). This means that, without trading Beltran, we’d have one of the following two scenarios next year:
C-Santos/Schnieder
1B-LaRoche
2B – Castillo
SS – Reyes
3B – Wright
LF – F-Mart
CF – Beltran
RF – Pagan/Tatis/Murphy/Evans/etc
OR
C-Santos/Schnieder
1B-Murphy/Tatis/Evans
2B – Castillo
SS – Reyes
3B – Wright
LF – Holliday
CF – Beltran
RF – F-Mart
AND
1 – Santana
2 – Bedard
3 – Pelfrey
4 – Maine
5 – Perez/Prospect/Small Free Agent
All of that, without having to cut Beltran’s salary.
A point in your favor: Cutting Beltran’s salary would allow us BOTH Holliday and LaRoche along with Bedard, since Ellsbury makes about $500k right now. But Ellsbury’s contract will only be a bargain for another year or two (unsure when his contract expires).
Reyes is the guy you trade. Hope he gets well a couple of weeks before the deadline and deal him and Church for a number two pitcher and another player, preferably a catcher who can be a leader.
the Wilpons would NEVER become sellers. they need to put people in the seats in Shea’s parking lot. selling players is NOT the way to do that. but soon, I think they’ll need to sell off and rebuild (but they need the seeds first, otherwise, this will be like the late ’70s and early ’80s). It will be interesting to see if the Wilpons will allow Omar to be a buyer, given how the Madoff scandal hasn’t effected the financial situation in their warped reality. if Omar can’t be a buyer, this team will finish no better than a few games over .500, and be called what I call them now – a very streaky .500 team.
Love your writing style Doug, very entertaining! But I don’t agree about the Mets being sellers….they may never catch the Phils, but they are right in the thick of the wild card race already and if you look at the rest of the NL, have a very good shot at that, especially when everyone gets healthy. They are just having a bad stretch of games right now…they will fight hard against the Phils, Yanks and Rays and I think they will win more of those games than they lose.
Never in my life would I want to trade beltran. I remember hearing him say that he would want to finish his career as a met and I for one would love for that to happen. I just think the mets need someone to light the fire under their asses to get them started.
If you don’t think the Mets can’t win this season and that seems reasonable trading Beltran isn’t a bad idea. Yeah, he’s very good but he’s getting older and already showing signs of breaking down. You’re trading 3 yrs. of Beltran at a high salary. If you get two good young players and a third guy that’s not bad. You take the money you save and sign another good player (Holliday, Lackey?). However signing Beltran was one of Omar’s signature moves, that and Pedro, letting Beltran go might be admitting failure. Omar doesn’t seem to like to do that. I think Beltran stays if Omar stays. However I can see Valentine coming on as GM and manager if he didn’t burn all his bridges with the Wilpons. I think he will convince the Wilpons he can increase the Mets talent pool with his knowledge of available Japanese talent.
NO. NO, and NO! You don’t trade Beltran. His body is not breaking down. He had a bout of food poisoning and a dinged shin. Those are specific 1 time things that do not reoccur. He is in peak physical condition and is a core, elite member of the team. Your choice of who we get is ridiculous. Ellsbury is a speed player period. A leg injury and that career is over. He is just as dependent on his legs as Reyes and we have suffered the pitfalls there more than once. If Bucholz is so great, why is he in AAA after pitching a no hitter in the bigs? Because that was an anomaly and he has isn’t a lock in the rotation. And Jeff Reed – who cares? Make that trade and be assured, the Mets will screw up on using the contract money by signing a loser. You’ve put forth a proposal that puts the Mets in competition with the Nats for the champion of the cellar for the next several years.
Once again: NO, NO, and NO!
Instead talk about how to most productively use the expiring salary money of players who will likely not be renewing next year.
Doug, I mention the possibilty of trading Beltran a few weeks ago and like you I’m coming around to the thought that the Mets might need to become sellers and not buyers this summer. You deal of Beltran to Boston is a good idea but I would want Matherson as well in the deal. The Red Sox just might pull the trigger here but I don’t think Omar has the stones to pull this off
minaya cant stand pat anymore hes gotta make some kind of move, i cant see this team even making the playoffs
Two comments here. First, trading away essentially the Mets best and most consistent player now in order to “restock” means you’re wasting the Santana trade and contract. Santana’s prime years are now. We need to put the best talent we can behind him instead of wasting those years.
Second, Ellsbury isn’t anything special (hell, I think he’s not much better than Pagan) and there are plenty of so called can’t miss players who never succeeded in the majors so any trade for talent that is unproven at the major league level is a risk.
Excellent points. Selling out is giving up on the Beltran, Wright, Santana, KRod era. The core needs to be built and developed, not destroyed. It’s not an easy task and that’s why Omar makes the big bucks. If Omar is not up to it, then maybe the fist step is to replace Omar. Ellsbury is more one dimensional than Beltran and not the way to go. Featuring Murphy in left was a strategic blunder by Mets mgmt when players like Ibanez, Abreu, and Dunn were available. The blame needs to be placed where it belongs: on the shoulders of Mets mgmt not the core players of the team.
First of all, I wouldn’t want to trade Beltran. I love him. I think he’s got at least one more great year in him after this year. But if I DID want to trade Beltran, Lester and Ellsbury would be satisfactory for me.
But would it be satisfactory for THEO? Almost certainly not. Epstein is a genius at getting maximum production for relatively little salary, and I can’t see him parting with two guys like Lester and Ellsbury for somebody of Beltran’s age and salary.
It’s axiomatic that you build defensive strength by having superb players in the middle — center field, shortstop, second base, and catcher.
Without a superior defensive set of middle positions, a team is NEVER better than a bridesmaid.
So if anybody goes — and I doubt it except maybe at catcher — the Mets need to ensure it’s an upgrade.
You cant blame this season on injuries!? What season and or team have you been watching!? Unreal, and then to back up that statement with trade Beltran! And the prize piece of the trade is Ellsbury….come on. Absolutley ridiculous.
Sounds to me youre more a Red Sox fan, than you are of the Mets. Youre salivating at the thought of making the Red Sox lineup a murderers row while weakening the mets by a whole lot.
Where is the power if you trade beltran? Arent we leaving the majors in stolen bases? Why do we need to add more speed when really all we need is any slugger than can hit the ball out of the ballpark and drive in runs.
The mets starting pitching can get by. sure we are another injury of a disaster, but what this lineup does lack is the fact its missing delgado and reyes and you want to trade beltran?
How can I get a job here cus I guess anyone can write crazy stuff?
For that specific trade, I’d agree with Doug. I like Beltran too, but that would be a lot, A LOT, of talent coming back to the Mets. If the Sox would make that trade (which I doubt they would) the Mets would be crazy not to do it. Lets all be honest, do we really think this team has the mental makeup to win a title? Beltran is playing as good as he’s ever played for us, and where are we? Time to be proactive, and not reactive..
Even though injuries have decimated this team for a month now, this team has a Jekyll/Hyde personality. Very unpredicatable especially with their lapses in playing fundamentally sound baseball. It is time for the election of a captain who will lead by example. Another idea would be to start a “Kangaroo Court” such as the one adopted by the Baltimore Orioles of the late 1960′s. The “court” got on those who made bonehead plays or didn’t hustle. They administered fines and fraternity like initiation tasks that helped cement the focus on “smart team” play.
Gary Sheffield for Judge!
Jury to be David Wright….Pedro Feliciano….K-Rod
I find it interesting being 2-1/2 games out of first not 20-1/2 games out on June 7, we are talking about the season being done, unable to reach the Phils and becoming sellers. Seriously, I know that I am an optomist to a fault sometimes, but this is OVER the top.
Beltran has incredible numbers offensively this year and a gold glove and you want to “sell” him now?
Sometimes I really can’t believe what is written here.
trade Beltran? this is one of the stupidest post ive ever read. No way we trade any of our core players which are Santana, Wright, Reyes, Beltran, and K-Rod.
As bad as things look right now, I’d bet that we will be in it in September, so no.
Lidge blew another save yesterday. Let’s face it, he’s the reason the Phils won the division and the World Series last year (he probably should’ve won the Cy Young), and he’s garbage this year. If the Phillies were a stock, I’d short them; they are totally outperforming.
But it goes to show that baseball is not all about stats (or more accurately, baseball is not all about the stats that we can calculate). Things like confidence, expecting to win, believing you can come back from 4 runs down and still win, etc. have a lot to do with success, at least over a substantial stretch of time, before your lack of talent brings you back down to reality.
A good case in point is the 2006 season. If we look at the Mets starting pitching that year, it was mediocre. After Pedro got injured in May, we had Glavine and … who else? Trachsel? El Duque? Ollie, Maine, and Pelfrey were mostly awful in the regular season. The Mets starting pitching the past three years is better than it was in 2006. 2007 and 2008 would’ve been different if Wagner hadn’t gotten injured both Septembers. This year we have K-Rod, and if we can just stay in the race till Reyes and Delgado (and Putz and Wagner etc. and …. Ollie???) come back, we definitely have a shot.
Did everybody forget that Beltran has a no-trade clause???
terrible terrible article ,why would be sellers we were in first place a week to 10 days ago we have a bad series againt the pirates and now were going to unload a guy whos hitting .360 in the prime of his career for scrappy little jacoby elsbury give me a break.you cannot replace beltrans 300 30 and 100 every year plus oh ya the multiple gold glove awards he gets every year and the oh ya best all time stolen base percentage.this is an absolute disguting article.ya we have holes like every other team does.blame our fool of a general manager who signed guys like luis castillo and oliver perez while leaving guys like derek lowe randy wolf and orlando hudson on the table to sign for peanuts elsewhere.we need a corner outfield bat,and a possible starter and well be battling with the phils like we have been all year already.take this nonsense articlw off of here ITS A DISGRACE!!!!!
Put down the crackpipe!
Carlos Beltran would only accept a trade to the Yankees. Yes the Yankees! He said he wanted the no trade clause becuase he wanted to dictate where he could be traded. Also being a Boras agent, he would ask for an extention. Which leaves the Mets in a bad spot as far as leverage is concerned. He lives in NY and will only want to stay in NY. If the Yankees are willing to give up Hughes, Montero and Jackson, than trade him…but this won’t happen.
You don’t trade Santana, Krod, Wright, Reyes or Beltran if you want to be competitive next year. I agree if by the All-star break they are out 5-8 games back and no Reyes, Delgado and Perez in sight…than they should become sellers. Trade canidates will be Church, Maine, Stokes, Castillo, Sheffield, Murphy, Niese, Feliciano, Cora, Tatis. Teams that will take those player: Cubs, Brewers, Dodgers, Redsox, Texas, Detroit and the Whitesox. What do you want in return,? prospect- medium to high ,! fatten up the farm and get ready for the offseason just in-case A Gonzalez becomes available or maybe a Halloday, Rios…!! Castillo and Church to the Cubs, Maine to the Dodgers…etc.
[...] Doug Branch at Mets Merized Online is getting drawn and quartered for a post that suggests that the Mets might look at being sellers and if they do maybe Carlos Beltran would be the guy to trade. Well if you read the comments Branch is called out for not only suggesting that the Mets become sellers but think about trading Beltran. I won’t speak for Branch but as for myself I’ll say I don’t want the Mets to be sellers and I don’t want to deal off Beltran but as I wrote in a post over the weekend maybe it’s time for the front office and ownership to take stock in what it is the team and what this franchise is looking to accomplish. The reason I think like this is that as much as I think Omar Minaya has done a pretty good job he could do much better and I never feel like there is a plan in place or a course of action for this team. Sure Omar went out and retooled the bullpen to the point it’s one of the best in baseball but he never addressed the need for a left fielder with power and seems to be more enthralled with finding players left on the side of the curb than being creative in making a deal for bona fide major league talent. [...]
All of you passionate Mets fans:
You make so many salient points, and I take my lumps with smelling salts, please. However, the premise was contingent that the Mets are out of contention by July 31st, the trade deadline.
I never advocated for trading Beltran in the next several weeks. Does anyone agree, though, that changes have to be made to the “core” of this team if we do not make the playoffs, for myriad reasons, again this year?
As they say in the posting world: Just food for thought. Everyone has taken the discussion to another level, and I for one am thankfull.
(By the way, I had to delve into the Red Sox motivation for trading young talent-and adding Beltran makes sense to me. I lived up there in ’86 and danced on the bar I happened to be tending, in Faneuil Hall. I am true blue, but was a fan of Reggie Smith and Rico Petrocelli once).
I don’t quite understand what a shake up of the core players will do to improve. While certainly adding on better supporting players is paramount, it seems like its breaking up the core just for the sake of breaking it up.
For instance going into the 88 season, the “core” was broken up after a failed 87 (which was a myraid of injuries too) and well we know how 88 worked out….playoffs but not parade.
Doug, are you insane? You want to trade the best CF (offensive and defense) who is on a very reasonable contract? This is a guy who last week finally realized he is a Met and opened his mouth to the media to tell his team of his dissatisfaction at the Pirate series.
Doug, it is not possible to get fair trade value in return for this guy. We would need to get Youkilis and Pappelbon in return for him, minimum.
This guy wants WANTS to retire here with us. what other gold glove perennial MVP (besides Dave) will be a Met on retirement?
The only guy I wouldn’t trade before Beltran is Dave.
If the Mets are out of contention by trading deadline, the heads that need to fall are Omar and Jerry. The core players need to be kept in place, inluding Beltran, Wright, Santana, and KRod. Intelligent changes would need to be made with player personnel to improve the team, not destroy. The objective should be to bring in other players to round out the core and make it stronger. That means a new starter, a new 1B, at least one new corner OF’er, and perhaps a new 2B. Start with a new GM and then let him fill in the critical holes. This assumes Reyes returns healthy and Delgado does not. Treat Murphy, Church, Reed, and Maine as trading chips to make a start at filling the holes. Most importantly, try to build the team by adding talent rather than destroy it by deleting the talent you have. You want a strategy to improve the team to position for a 2010 Championship, not a recovery plan that will take 10 years to execute.
its time to aquire adam laroche and roy oswalt.Or trade more and rebuild.
WE SHOULD TRADE CARLOS BELTRAN RYAN CHURCH AND LUIS CASTILLO FOR DUSTIN PEDROIA AND JD DREW
BELTRAN CHURCH AND CASTILLO FOR PEDROIA AND JD DREW???THATS THE DUMBEST THING IVE EVER HEARD WHO YOU GETTIN FOR BELTRAN???JD DREW???THEY WOULD NEVER TRADE PEDROIA UM IF YOU LIVED ON THIS PLANET YOUD KNOW HE WON THE AL MVP LAST YEAR.SO YOUR GIVING UP 2 SOLID MAJOR LEAGUE PLAYERS IN CASTILLO AND CHURCH AND AN ELITE 5 TOOL PLAYER IN BELTRAN FOR ONE GOOD PLAYER IN PEDROIA AND A PIECE OF JUNK LIKE JD DREW.WOW THATS A REAL STEAL OF A TRADE HUH.