Jun
27
2009

A Closer Look At David Wright

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Our All-Star third baseman, David Wright, is in the middle of the weirdest offensive year of his life. I think it’s actually cause for worry. David Wright is batting .351 and he’s leading the NL in batting, and I won’t dispute that he’s been on base more than he ever has. However, I became very curious after I noticed that David’s stolen bases had been way higher than normal and that he seemed to be hitting way more singles than he ever has. He seemed more like a lead-off hitter at the plate than a middle of the order presence. Statistically, this is true.

Wright has 94 hits up to this point on the year. 22 Doubles, 3 Triples, and 4 Home Runs. That adds up to 29 XBH. So 30% of his hits are XBH. That’s not too bad for a .350 hitter, but that basically means that 70% of his hits are singles, which seem to have translated into him having more chances to steal bases. (Notably, he’s already been caught 8 times, which is a career high.)

Now if 70% sounds alarming to anyone, I don’t blame you. I know it’s early in the year to judge, and I also know that he lacks other big bats in the lineup, but comparing Wright’s numbers to his other years, it seems that if he doesn’t turn on the power soon, he may not be in for a Wright-esque year at all.

Wright is projected for his highest batting average by about 30 points, but he’s also projected for near 50 more Ks than he normally falls victim to. He’s projected for about 45 Stolen bases, 50 doubles, a grand total of 9 HRs and 213 Hits overall. So Wright’s final line will look something like this. (Projected for about 600 ABs.)

.350 AVG, 9 HRs, 89 RBIs, 45 SB, 160 K’s, 50 2B, 5 3B, 149 singles.

Is this the David Wright we need? I know alot of people are fine with this, because it’s still a pretty good offensive season, and the RBIs should go up with the return of Reyes/Delgado/Beltran (If either return to play significant time.). But the 30% XBH rate somehow worries me. In comparison, these are his rates from the past four years. Is the drop off enough to worry about?

2005: 40% (27 HRs, 42 2B, 1 3B, 176 Hits)

2006: 39% (26 HRs, 40 2B, 5 3B, 181 Hits)

2007: 37% (30 HRs, 42 2B, 1 3B, 196 Hits)

2008: 41% (33 HRs, 42 2B, 2 3B, 189 Hits)

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About the Author: Satish Ram

6 Comments + Add Comment

  • my biggest concern is the excuse the Mets use about his lack of power. HoJo claims that we instruct out hitters to go for base hits and not homers , because of the park. Well..I dont seem to notice a shortage of home runs by the opposition. In fact Mr. Kiner on Thursday alluded to that as well. The walls are higher, but the dimensions are not overwhelming. The point about his strikeouts also crushed HoJos lame excuse about the power shortage. I cannot recall many singles hitters that strikeout as much as David has. If I had an explanation for this mystery I would share it. I hope its NOT because he was on some “roids” or HGH and has suddenly stopped and that the reason, in fact I seriously doubt it is that. If he is injured and that is effecting his power, obviously we would never be told that either by the stellar Mets management team of Freddy and the Dreamers. I will just say it is downright odd, and hopefully will be an aberation and return to normal.

    • I do not think it is an aberration, but a planned event. This team is intent on becoming a small ball team because of Citifield. That was what JMan’s 80 pitch opposite filed hitting exercise was all about. The idea is to increase OBP and create more scoring opportunities and not go for the seats which are now further away. In interviews JMan has said fewer HR’s was part of the strategy. David is simply doing what he has been told. Get wood on the ball and get on base. His BA is up and he is trying to run the bases aggressively producing more SB’s, but also more CS as well. Most of the other players are following those instructions as well. The one exception is Sheff who is his own guy and does what he is going to do. He will hit the HR’s because he’s good at that, his wheels are old to run the bases and mgmt won’t have the balls to monkey with him.

      The big question is whether this strategy will work. One flaw is driving in the RISP. Without the HR, the LOB numbers are too high. The second flaw is that the players are carrying this approach to the other parks including the bandboxes like Philly, because it’s too difficult to change your approach on a daily basis. In the final analysis, I think the strategy will turn out to be flawed and just another example of JMan’s mismanagement. It could be a lesson in how to take your resources and toss them in the garbage. This kind of teaching is best done early in a player’s career in the Minors. When they’re in the Majors for a couple years, let them play their game please! Jerry, take off the shackles: Set My People Free!

  • If the Mets do not want to sign a legitimate power hitter, than the last thing they should be doing is telling Wright and Beltran not to pull the ball. Our power has to come from somewhere. I love the higher average, but I am going to miss the 35+ homer seasons.

  • I don’t think it was planned. I think they’re using it as an excuse to try and give themselves credit. Citi Field is not Petco Park. There are home runs hit. I don’t see a reason to drastically change Beltran and/or Wright.

    • You could be right, but that was what Jerry was doing in ST with his 80 pitch, opposite field drill.

      • Fair enough, that’s a solid point. But i agree with you on every else you said.

        As you said “When they’re in the Majors for a couple years, let them play their game please!”. And now of all times, where the Mets lack a player with double digit Home Runs.

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