30
2009
Not So Random Thoughts – 3 Year Decline
As far as the Mets are concerned April is now over and they find themselves in 4th place with a 9-12 record, closer to last place than first. Not exactly the beginning we all envisioned after overhauling our bullpen and adding a few role players to our bench.
In 2008 the Mets found themselves at 14-12, 15-9 in 2007, and they finished the month with a 16-8 record in 2006. Notice any trends?
The last time the Mets won nine games for the Month of April was in 2004. That year we finished with a 71-91 record. Steve Trachsel led the team in wins with 12, Mike Cameron led the team in homers, and our first baseman was guy named Mike Piazza.
That ends our trip down memory lane…
Some things you should know
Carlos Delgado leads the team with 3 homeruns, followed by Carlos Beltran who has two. Nobody else has more than 1 homer. The Mets rank last in the National League.
David Wright leads the league in strikeouts and is on pace for over 200. He currently has more K’s than Luis Castillo, Daniel Murphy, Ryan Church and Jose Reyes combined.
Carlos Beltran leads the league in batting with a .388 average. He is joined by Luis Castillo, Ryan Church and Daniel Murphy who are each hitting over .300.
The Mets offense ranks #3 in batting average, #9 in runs scored, #16 in homeruns, #1 in triples and #5 in stolen bases.
The Mets pitching ranks #9 in ERA, #14 in wins, #14 in saves, #7 in strikeouts, and #9 in homeruns allowed.
Nice Surprises
Brian Stokes has yet to allow a run this season and has totaled 11 scoreless innings thus far.
Bobby Parnell has also been a pleasant surprise in the bullpen and currently sports a 1.74 ERA.
Johan Santana is in the midst of one of his best seasons statistically. In addition to a 1.10 ERA, he has struck out 44 batters in 32.2 innings while walking just 9.
Daniel Murphy is batting .324 and is second on the team with 13 runs scored. He has also proven to be a solid pinch hitter when he comes off the bench. He has looked more comfortable in the field despite the last slip.
Not So Nice Surprises
Sean Green has a 8.49 ERA and has allowed 23 baserunners in just 11.2 innings.
J.J. Putz already has 2 losses and a blown save with a 4.09 ERA. He has more allowed more walks than strikeouts.
No Mets starter has an ERA under 5.00 and if you were to take Johan Santana out of the equation the Mets starting rotation would rank last in ERA in all of baseball. The biggest culprit is Oliver Perez who carries an unsightly 9.31 ERA.
Jose Reyes is only 5th on the team in runs scored with 9. He has scored just 2 runs in his last 8 games.
Upcoming Decisions
When Brian Schneider is activated from the DL this weekend, the Mets will be faced with optioning Omir Santos or cutting Ramon Castro. When Santos pinch hit for Castro yesterday, Castro stormed into the clubhouse and didn’t stick around for the end of the game.
Tim Redding is getting close to being activated and the Mets will have to decide how to make room for him.
Final Thoughts
The Mets continue to struggle with runners in scoring position and had their worst showing yesterday when they left 14 runners stranded. They have problems adding runs late or coming back after they lose a lead. Aside from Johan Santana who has been remarkable, the starting rotation ranges from erratic to bad. Pelfrey and Maine both showed signs of hope in their last starts and will face big challenges this weekend in Philadelphia. If they can turn the corner and deliver solid performances, it might be just what the doctor ordered for this ailing Mets team.
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
Went to my first Mets game, a Mayors Trophy game at Shea, in '73. We beat the Yankees 8-4 and I was hooked. I marched in two Banner Day parades, and before the Grand Slam single, there was the "Hendu Can Do" grand slam - I was there. I've collected Mets memorabilia all my life and started Mets Merized Online to feed my addiction.
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hey Joe…..I don’t blame Jerry for pinch hitting Santos for Castro one bit…you have to go with the hot hand. But I think he should have demanded Johan pitch at least 8 innings.
Those numbers are horrifying, really. It may only be April, almost May, but you never want to get out to a start like this. The Mets are lucky the Phillies swept the Marlins last weekend, but climbing over three teams is not going to be easy, and will be impossible if they keep playing like a minor league team.
Hot hand? Castro had 2 hits and an RBI yesterday. Manuel replaced him with a guy who had been catching in the bullpen for 2 hours. Not a good move at all!
Very sobering and much appreciated.
Thanks Russell and I’ve enjoyed your recent posts immensely.
Its definitely time to do something drastic. I believe that drastic something is to trade D. Wright. He hasn’t produced in big spots since last July. In August ’08, September ’08, and April ’09, he has become a strikeout machine and when he is up with RISP he is almost an automatic out. There is NO ONE who watched that game yesterday who can honestly say they thought Wright would come through in the 9th inning, We all knew he was going to strikeout and we were hoping he would at least make contact. Pretty sad.
I believe the Mets should offer Wright + 2 minor league prospects (maybe Martinez included) to the Blue Jays for Halladay and Wells. I don’t need to give a reason for Halladay. As for Wells, he only has 8 strikeouts in 93 ABs this season, and he has 3 HRs and 12 RBIs. He is a doubles machine, and playing in Citifield will only improve his doubles numbers. He will greatly improve the outfield defense, and Murphy can be the new 3rd baseman, which is his more comfortable spot. This improves, the Mets defense, the Mets offense, and the Mets starting rotation. I like D. Wright, but I like watching the Mets win games even more.
Matt-
Thank God you are in no way involved in the management of this team (you’re not, right? Right???)
Good response. You really made a valid point.
Matt,
I disagree with you, but I don’t think DW is inviolable. I will say, my man, you are panicking. Wright is horrible right now, and I agree: I just see him as an automatic, even pathetic out, but nothing accounts for his overall decline, so what I’m saying is give this man a couple of months. I am confident he’s going to surge.
And geez, he plays an increasingly excellent 3B, no?
He’s not fiery, and he’s not gritty, but I believe his best as Met in 2009 and into the future is yet to come.
I’m keeping the faith.
Increasingly excellent 3b?? He leads the majors in errors at 3b with 4.
Why are you being a goof? He’s a Gold Glover. How much you wanna bet he’s in the running for a GG again, if he doesn’t win it outright?
He won a gold glove in ’07 with 21 errors and in ’08 with 16 errors. Remember Rafael Palmeiro won a gold glove in 1999 when he only played 28 games in the field. The gold glove award is meaningless.
You know, when I first read yesterday that we should trade Wright, I thought you were an idiot. But you know what, I actually like the idea. I have no doubt that Wright will eventually turn everything around and start to hit like we know he can, however, it is quite obvious that this bunch of players is not going to win us anything. So, today, I am saying that I like the trade to Toronto for Halladay and Wells. The ONLY thing that would concern me is Murphy at 3rd base. I know it is his natural position, but someone posted a month back or so that they had seen him play 3rd in the minors last year and his defense is a little eratic.
Just one more thing…Is Wells a free agent after this season?
Wells is signed thru 2014, but he has the right to terminate the contract after 2011.
One quibble – don’t look at Murphy’s batting avg alone to determine that he’s been a nice surprise. He’s playing a corner OF position. Extrapolating his lack of power and not so great plate discipline over a full season, that would be quite poor from a corner OF spot, especially combining his shoddy D. Murphy has not been great, but he’s performing at about what was expected of him according to the dreaded/hated projection systems said he would.
Actually, Murphy has probably the best plate discipline on the team.
Care to back that up with some stats from the current year? You’re just saying that based on perception.
His BB% is 2nd worst on the team to Fernando Tatis. Does that say “best plate discipline on the team?” His K% is 3rd best on the team, that’s a plus.
His O-Swing % (percentage of swings at pitches outside the strike zone) is 4th worst on the team, with only Delgado, Schneider and Santos worse. Does that say “best plate discipline on the team?”
In the future it doesn’t hurt to use some stats to back up statements. Just a suggestion.
You are absolutely right James. Considering that he’s playing a corner outfield position we do need him to produce some more in the power department especially batting in the top third of the lineup.
Wells is having a good year but he just came off two really bad yrs after he signed a big contract. He has not shown any consistency for me to trade him for David, which I wouldn’t do anyway. Sheeesh, guys come off the ledge, Mets will turn it around and David will be ok. You trade David and you are the worst GM, other than OM, in the division. IMO
Lets trade Beltran. No way he’s our best player right now, he’s the best CF in the game. O.K. lets trade Delgado. No way he basically carried the team in the 2nd half last year. Well then lets trade Church. Church has been great when healthy. No way. Lets dump Castillo then. Castillo looks good this year. He’s hitting and playing good D. We can’t trade him. O.K. lets fire Jerry. Come on man, it’s not Jerry’s fault. Well, what about moving Wright or Reyes? Ha! They’re 2 of the best young players in the game, what are you smoking!
And right there is the problem. There is no ONE individual to blame for this train wreck. The Mets, individually have excellent talent. But they are not a team. They don’t have any leadership what so ever, and it’s been like that since 2007.
Thats why , other than Reyes, Wright , and Santana, I suggest we trade the whole team. Including a new GM and Manager. This team needs to move on mentally from 2007 and until theres some new faces I don’t think they can.
But talent wise, yes, this is a championship caliber ball club. Has been since 2006. But theres something lacking, weather you want to call it leadership, hustle, guts, whatever. The Mets don’t have it. And unfortunately our front office either can’t see it, or is too stubborn to see it.
Beltran is one of the best center fielders in Mets history. Trade him away? That would just be stupid
The fact that someone would suggest trading D. Wright, before moving Beltran, Delgado, or really anyone on the team is beyond me. How about getting some leaders on this team besides D. Wright.
If the Mets trade David Wright or Jose Reyes I become a baseball widower. Simple as that.
Lets trade Met fans who make idiotic reactionary statements. What would we get for a [insert dopey Met fan's name here?] Better yet could we just give some Met fans their unconditional release? }
It sickens me that people are calling for a D Wright trade. I’m not even the biggest fan of D Wright but he his a franchise player. People who want to trade him are probably the same ones who were calling for Delgado’s head last season before he hit started hitting a moon shot in every at bat. I think people need to relax with Wright and let him get out of his slump because Lord knows once he gets hot you’re all going to be in line to get a “Mrs. Wright” t-shirt.
May I suggest we re-visit the paranoiac trade talks at Memorial Day Weekend?
My attitude is NOT that April doesn’t matter, but that May-June-July-August-September are more important than the month of April alone.
P.S. Castro does have to go, and I don’t even blame him for being P.O.’s and babyish about Santos PH AB yesterday. He’s just not a Met. It was so visible on his face when Santos hit the granny.
I don’t think the Mets need to trade or break uptheir core players. I think that’s an overreaction and it would be a dreadful mistake. The Mets needed to add one more player to the team. They needed that fourth player that would have taken some pressure away from Reyes, Wright and Beltran. Ibanez is doing wonders for the Phillies and would have done the same with the Mets. He’s the kind of player we needed. He would have filled left field perfectly while Murphy spent a season in AAA learning a new position or trade bait down the line. Manny was never an option so I won’t say we should have gotten him, but even Adam Dunn for the ridiculously cheap contract he signed would have been a big help. Only the Mets could find two leftfielders who are actually worse defensively than Dunn, but at least Dunn has more homers than the entire Mets infield or outfield combined.
I love it! The Mets are, and have been, playing lackadaisical baseball for the past 2+ years, and yet it’s the fans bickering with each other. God forbid a fan wants to see some changes on this team, so maybe we’ll get to watch some good, inspired baseball this summer. And yet the fans are reactionary idiots?!?!
I do agree though, trading D. Wright is beyond foolish. Lets get rid of the only guy that actually gives a d#mn about winning. How about some new owners? And a new GM?
Lifelong-
These are not reactionary fans you’re listening to. Calling for major changes after 2006 would have been reactionary. It’s now been 2 full seasons of this brand of baseball thats clearly not working. In my opinion, other than Reyes, Wright and Santana, everyone else can go. Thats not a reaction to losing 2 out of 3 to Florida. Thats a reaction to the past 2+ years of this team. If you want to believe this team as currently constructed will make the playoffs, God bless you. My we#d just isn’t that good.
I’m having trouble understanding why people are dumbfounded by the idea of trading David Wright. In sports today rosters turnover pretty quickly. In 2000, the Mets were in the World Series. By 2004, the only player left from the World Series roster was Mike Piazza. I like Wright, but I like seeing the Mets win even more! If trading Wright and getting 2 studs in return is a possibility, well, I am all for it.
You see unlike, you so-called Mets fans, I root for the name on the front of their uniform (Mets), not the names on the back of the uniform. Those of you who root for the names on the back should start chanting “Let’s go Wright” instead of “Lets go Mets.” Were you guys cheering for Strawberry in the 2000 World Series?
Ok if you get halladay for wright, cool our pitching rotations great, but who plays third? Unless you want to rely on Daniel Murphy or Fernando Tatis playing third base, i don’t see how this trade would benefit the Mets. Trust me, no team will be willing to give away there number one or two starter and there starting third basemen for a slumping David Wright.
If the Mets offered Wright, Martinez, and Niese or Pelfrey for Halladay and Wells, than Wells would be in left and Tatis/Murphy would be on 3rd. That makes the Mets a much improved team.
Um, ’cause now yer talkin’ like a Skankees fan, sonny!
Bet you’d be happy if cyborgs who batted .670 constituted the Mets.
Call me a bad fan; I kind like the human element of what makes any given Mets team more and less attractive from one year to the next.
Rooting for a team that plays like a team is very important to me as a Mets fan.
I don’t know about you, but my Mets could go 0-162, and I’ll still love ‘em forever. Not that I won’t love them less, but I’ll love ‘em
LGM!
“I don’t know about you, but my Mets could go 0-162, and I’ll still love ‘em forever.”
Finally something I can agree with. Amen to that!
I agree that there has been a decline since the summer of 2006. We were world champions in everything but name that year. 2007 was good, but it all fell apart at the end. Last year everything went wrong and the went right and then it fell apart again. This year there is nothing too fall apart.
Last year at this time we were in better shape than we are now, and everyone was up in arms and the cries of “fire willy” were begining to be heard. Last year we pretty much a .500 team up until the last week on June. ALways one game ahead of .500, or one game below. Now we are way below .500 and there is no one person, manager or otherwise to blame.
How about this trade
Bue Jays get:
Mike Pelfrey
Fernando Martinez
Eddie Kunz
1 more prospect
Mets get:
Roy Halladay
Alex Rios
I believe if the Mets made an offer like that to the Blue Jays, their response would be laughter and they would hang the phone up in Minaya’s face.
but, if the blue jays are in last place, and they need a change in their organization i think they would take a serious look at this offer. They’d be getting a developing number two starter and the mets number one prospect. The blue jays want to do well, and right now i believe they are in first or second in the a.l. east, but if the blue jays decline to last place you never know.
I never expected this post to become a thread for WFAN type hypothetical trades. Beltran, Wright and Reyes are going nowhere, neither is F-Mart for that matter.
That Halladay/Rios trade would get laughed at by the Blue Jays. It’s barely enough for Halladay alone.
Why does everyone believe our unwanted parts would be so desirable to other teams that they would give us their most valuable commodoties to get them?
The solution with fixing the Mets lies within the Mets themselves. Maybe this whole Dan Murphy experiment in leftfield needs to be trashed. Bring up someone with more power or wait until some teams fall out of it and trade for a real leftfielder maybe Carlos Lee or Magglio Ordonez. Either can be had because both teams are willing to shed salary so it won’t cost the Mets much in terms of prospects.
First of all, how could you say that beltran, wright, and reyes are going nowhere. Each of them has slumps, but look at wright last year:
HR:33
RBI:124
AVG:.302
OBP:.390
You call that a bad year.
Carlos Beltran is the number one player on the mets right now and jose reyes has become increasingly better. Also, F Mart is like 19 years old? He’s been injured last season, so who are you to tell Mets fans that he’s going nowhere.
Lastly, as i mentioned, if the blue Jays are in last place at the trade deadline, they might want change. I believe that eventually Roy is going to ask out of Toronto because he wants to be with a winning team.
Also, i definitely agree with you on the Daniel Murphy experiment. If the mets want to be a winning team, they can’t rely on Daniel Murphy and Gary Sheffield to play left field.
Baseball is about pitching and timely hitting. We can’t seem to get these two at the same time. I believe over the course of a year, the “clutch” stats will get better. The problem with this team is pitching.
David Wright will own nearly every major offensive record for this franchise in a few years. He is not playing well, but he is not why we aren’t winning.
Day to day, we score enough runs. We are not getting the pitching. #2,3 and 4 would probably not start for most teams. Who cares about #5? We have Johan Santana and no one else.
If the bullpen held leads the last two days, we would be 11-10 for the month having just swept Florida.
Plus don’t forget Mike the errors from Murphy has cost 2 or 3 games already, we would be at least 13-8.
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