Mets Win Division By Five Games?

An article by posted on April 2, 2009 0 Comments

Just took a glance at the newly updated PECOTA team standings for the NL East at Baseball Prospectus. 

New York Mets92708247220.2660.3410.421
Philadelphia Phillies87758287700.2650.3390.436
Atlanta Braves86767987430.2720.3420.42
Washington Nationals77857808200.2590.340.416
Florida Marlins71917318250.2560.3260.417

They also give fair warning to Phillies fans while justifying their choice of the Mets…

As PECOTA sees it, the NL East race should see the twice-brokenhearted Mets christen their new ballpark with a 92-win season and a long-awaited division flag. While they could have done more to patch their rotation and their outfield corners, the bullpen makeover–starring Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz–squarely addresses last year’s biggest flaw, and David Wright, Jose Reyes, and Carlos Beltran forecast as the league’s third-, fourth-, and fifth-most valuable hitters according to WARP.

Last year, they accurately predicted the unexpected success of the Rays and said they would finish over .500 for the first time in franchise history. Maybe these guys know a thing or two about using their system to project these standings.

Winning the division by five games seems like a bit of a stretch though, and I would expect a margin of 3 or less games this season. Of course, that’s just my gut feeling…

How many games do you think the Mets will win the division by?

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I'm a lifelong Mets fan who loves writing and talking about the Amazins' 24/7. From the Miracle in 1969 to the magic of 1986, and even the near misses in '73, '00 and '15, I've experienced it all - the highs and the lows. I started Mets Merized Online in 2005 to feed my addiction and interact with other passionate Met fans like you. Follow me on Twitter @metsmerized.