Mets Win Division By Five Games?

Just took a glance at the newly updated PECOTA team standings for the NL East at Baseball Prospectus. 

NL East	W	L	RS	RA	AVG	OBP	SLG
New York Mets	92	70	824	722	0.266	0.341	0.421
Philadelphia Phillies	87	75	828	770	0.265	0.339	0.436
Atlanta Braves	86	76	798	743	0.272	0.342	0.42
Washington Nationals	77	85	780	820	0.259	0.34	0.416
Florida Marlins	71	91	731	825	0.256	0.326	0.417

They also give fair warning to Phillies fans while justifying their choice of the Mets…

As PECOTA sees it, the NL East race should see the twice-brokenhearted Mets christen their new ballpark with a 92-win season and a long-awaited division flag. While they could have done more to patch their rotation and their outfield corners, the bullpen makeover–starring Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz–squarely addresses last year’s biggest flaw, and David Wright, Jose Reyes, and Carlos Beltran forecast as the league’s third-, fourth-, and fifth-most valuable hitters according to WARP.

Last year, they accurately predicted the unexpected success of the Rays and said they would finish over .500 for the first time in franchise history. Maybe these guys know a thing or two about using their system to project these standings.

Winning the division by five games seems like a bit of a stretch though, and I would expect a margin of 3 or less games this season. Of course, that’s just my gut feeling…

How many games do you think the Mets will win the division by?