2
2009
Mets Win Division By Five Games?
An article by 
Just took a glance at the newly updated PECOTA team standings for the NL East at Baseball Prospectus.
| NL East | W | L | RS | RA | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| New York Mets | 92 | 70 | 824 | 722 | 0.266 | 0.341 | 0.421 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 87 | 75 | 828 | 770 | 0.265 | 0.339 | 0.436 |
| Atlanta Braves | 86 | 76 | 798 | 743 | 0.272 | 0.342 | 0.42 |
| Washington Nationals | 77 | 85 | 780 | 820 | 0.259 | 0.34 | 0.416 |
| Florida Marlins | 71 | 91 | 731 | 825 | 0.256 | 0.326 | 0.417 |
They also give fair warning to Phillies fans while justifying their choice of the Mets…
As PECOTA sees it, the NL East race should see the twice-brokenhearted Mets christen their new ballpark with a 92-win season and a long-awaited division flag. While they could have done more to patch their rotation and their outfield corners, the bullpen makeover–starring Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz–squarely addresses last year’s biggest flaw, and David Wright, Jose Reyes, and Carlos Beltran forecast as the league’s third-, fourth-, and fifth-most valuable hitters according to WARP.
Last year, they accurately predicted the unexpected success of the Rays and said they would finish over .500 for the first time in franchise history. Maybe these guys know a thing or two about using their system to project these standings.
Winning the division by five games seems like a bit of a stretch though, and I would expect a margin of 3 or less games this season. Of course, that’s just my gut feeling…
How many games do you think the Mets will win the division by?
About the Author: Joe DeCaro
Went to my first Mets game, a Mayors Trophy game at Shea, in '73. We beat the Yankees 8-4 and I was hooked. I marched in two Banner Day parades, and before the Grand Slam single, there was the "Hendu Can Do" grand slam - I was there. I've collected Mets memorabilia all my life and started Mets Merized Online to feed my addiction.
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NL East Standings
| Team | W | L | Pct. | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | 26 | 18 | .591 | - |
| Braves | 26 | 19 | .578 | 0.5 |
| Mets | 24 | 20 | .545 | 2.0 |
| Marlins | 24 | 20 | .545 | 2.0 |
| Phillies | 22 | 23 | .489 | 4.5 |
Last updated: 05/24/2012
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Write Your Own Mets Post
I believe the mets are going to win by 2-4 games but i also believe there total wins will be more along the lines of 96-97.
The Mets will easily win the division by 5 games and I would go as far as 7-8 games. The seriousness I’ve seen and heard from them this spring is unlike anything I’ve seen before in the last three springs. The talent level is unmatched across the board. They are a sound defensive team probably the best in the NL.
Their weakest link is the pitching depth and quality, but a strong bullpen can overcome a lot of ills. That’s what the 2006 Mets taught us.
I agree with the above poster that the Mets will win 96-97.
we’re gonna clinch by september.
We won I believe 91 games last year with a battered bullpen. So this year definitely should win more than last year. This year mets have as much confidence as they had in 06 which is a good thing. But metsmaniac the phillies do have a pretty decent team. There offense is bar none. There going to score a lot of runs. But there pitching is not all there, even more so than the mets, but yea 96-97 wins. With a slim chance of 100, after the first month we will have a better insight on our mets.
George, we won 89 games last year.
I’m hoping for 91 wins, which should be enough to get us the Division.
PECOTA has been applied to predicting team performance since 2003. Overall, across all teams, the spread between the projected number of wins and the actual wins is:
2003 5.91 wins;
2004 7.71 wins;
2005 5.14 wins;
2006 4.94 wins;
2007 4.31 wins.
2008 8.5 wins
So while PECOTA is very good, don’t bet the farm on its accuracy. A team’s 1st place projection may wind up being just a 3rd place finish.
IFs. A lot of Ifs. If Hernandez can pitch good for 2 months and then be replaced by Niese or Garcia who pitch well, if Murphy can hit 280 and drive in 70-75 runs, if Delgado continues his second half play, if Santana makes 30 starts, if one of Pelfrey, Maine or Perez is a 14-15 game winner they should win by more than 5 games.
how about we wait and see how it plays out before making assumptions that can come back and bite us in the azz.
We have to be patient and let the players do their thing between the lines.
We trust, we root, we cheer, and the players do the rest!
On paper, I think this team is better than the ’06 Mets. But we’ll have to see how the whole season plays out.
The only true 2 ifs the mets have right now is if delgado produces and castillo. Our pitching is fine. Yea you can argue that the pitching still has ifs, but look at 06 our pitching was worse than what we have now. So if delgado and castillo perform like they should, i predict a very good year.
CAPSLOCK=DISABILITY ACCOMODATION
FIRSTOFF I’M AN OPTIMIST! I BELIEVE, JUST AS ’06 WAS A WBC YR THAT HAD OUR GUYS WELL TUNED FOR START, THIS YR WILL BE BETTER DUE TO JERRY & JOHAN. OVERALL THE ROTATION IS STRONGER
JOHAN>PEDRO
MAINE>GLAVINE(LATE VERSION)
PEREZ>TRACHSEL
LIVAN=DUQUE
DAN’S PEREZ>RICK’S PEREZ
I BELIEVE 97 Ws IS A GOOD PLACE TO START COUNTING, WHILE I EXPECT A LIKLIHOOD OF LIDGE REVERTING BACK TO HIS 81% CONVERSION RATE, ROMERO’S RET’N TO FORM THAT SECURED HIS RELEASE FROM BOSTON AND FOR KARMA TO PRESENT IT’S BILL TO THE PHILLIES FOR THE OVERUSE OF HAMELS FOR 2 SUCCESSIVE YRS WHERE EACH SUPERCEEDED THE PREVIOUS BY MORE THAN 50IP ASDDING UP TO HAMELS DOWN TIME. WERTH & VICTORINO COME BACK TO EARTH. IBANEZ STRUGGLES LIKE MOST POWERHITTERS IN NEW LEAGUE. ALLOWING METS TO EXCEED THEIR 12G MARGIN OF ’06 I WOULDN’T RULE OUT A DETERMINED NYM TEAM FINALLY CATCHING BREAKS MISSED IN ’06,’07 & ’08 COMPILING THE MAGICAL 100W TOTAL AS OUT OF QUESTION; A POSSIBILITY, NOT A PROBABILITY.