This morning, I wrote an entire post dedicated to my assertion that the Mets low-balled Derek Lowe and that it was a laughable offer in this market.
Tony Massarotti of the Boston Globe now reports the following…
According to a source familiar with the negotiations, Derek Lowe is likely to continue shopping for a more desirable offer after the New York Mets presented him with a three-year, $36 million offer on Tuesday.
While some reports have placed Lowe’s target in the range of five years and $90 million, a much more probable outcome is that Lowe ends up with a three- or four-year deal worth in the rage of $14-$15 million annually. It was unclear whether the Mets’ proposal included any type of option, but the sides last week were discussing a pair of proposals, one being a four-year offer and the other being a three-year proposal with a vesting option.
Earlier this offseason, Burnett agreed to a five-year, $82.5 million contract with the Yankees that will pay him an average of $16.5 million per season.
I specifically cited that the market was set by the Burnett signing in my original post, and later I replied to comments that disagreed with me and I wrote:
Baseball is a supply and demand driven sport in terms of establishing a base salary for free agents.
It’s why K-Rod got so little, and Burnett and Sabathia so much.
No player is worth $12 million a year in my estimation. But unfortunately, feelings, hunches, assumptions, and saying offers are good have nothing to do with the reality of the market economy that is baseball.
Lowe will end up getting close to the numbers I mentioned in this post. Not because he is worth it, but because that is what the market was set at by Burnett.
Boras doesn’t need my help to drive the market, he has the Yankees who have already set the market with middle relievers at $4 million per season, and mid level pitchers at $16.5 million.
Here is my original post.
Good call, Joe. Sucks that you were right but good point you made about supply & demand
I still think a 36 year old pitcher looking for a 5 year deal is crazy.
I just reread your blog again and you wrote
“According to a source familiar with the negotiations, Derek Lowe is likely to continue shopping for a more desirable offer after the New York Mets presented him with a three-year, $36 million offer on Tuesday.”
doesn’t sound like its completely dead yet – haven’t heard it from the horses mouth – its from a “Source”.
Come on – I know its very uncommon – but can we think a little on the positive side for once?
positive? me? You must have me confused with Sponge Bob Squarepants… lol
Doesn’t take a rocket scientist to know Lowe was going to reject this offer. No need to toot your own horn at any time but expecially on this – on something that was so obvious. Star free agents and those with desireable multi-team suitors, never take the first offer, and with Boras pulling weight, rejecting this offer is baseball business 101.
JOE, YOU MUST DRIVE A SATURN, SINCE U OBVIOUSLY THINK INITIAL OFFER REJECTION IS THE BE ALL, END ALL. RIGHT NOW, WE HAVE A MKT PRICE FOR LOWE @ 12M PER AND UNTIL SOMEONE OTHER THAN BORAS RAISES IT, IT IS WHAT IT IS. OMAR’S OPENNING WAS PERFECT. IT WILL FORCE OUT LOOKEY LOUS NEXT BID HAS TO BE IN TEENS WHERE THE MKT IS SLIM, THUS THE PAUCITY OF INTEREST IN MARQUIS @ 10M PER. SUPPLY FOR NON-ACE STARTERS ISN’T SO SLIM, BURNETT IS NOT A MARKER TO JUSGE BY SINCE CC WAS AN ELITE, AJ, AN ACE. LOWE IS A SP ONLY & NOT CATEGORIZED WITH THE OTHER 2; BUT MORE WITH PEREZ, SHEETS, WOLF, MARQUIS, PETTITTE, BYRD, GLAVINE, SMOLTZ, PEDRO, JENNINGS, LOAIZA,GARLAND, MULDER, TRACHSEL, ETC, ETC, SO FORTH. IT’S CERTAINLY A JUDGEMENT CALL REGARDING QUALITY; BUT QUANTITY IS CERTAINLY NOT AS U DESCRIBE IT. UNTIL ANOTHER OFFER IS MADE THE ONLY OFFER IS THE PRICE OF THE GOODS, IN THE AMERICAN MKT. I BELIEVE OMAR HAS THE FORTITUDE TO WAIT BORAS OUT; BUT DOES LOWE? AT HIS AGE, SITTING ONE OUT IS NOT A VIABLE OPTION. NEITHER IS A TRIP TO JAPAN. JUST AS MANNY’S MKT IS 2/45M SET BY LA. WE ALL SEE THE CROWD BELLYING UP TO THE BIDDING BAR, DON’T WE? THIS MKT IS A BORAS NIGHTMARE, WHEREAS THE PAST COUPLE OF YRS WERE NIRVANA FOR AGENTS. A LOOK BACK WILL SHOW THAT HAD THE NYY NOT BID AGAINST THEMSELVES, CC & AJ WOULD’VE SIGNED MORE REASONABLY. DOES ANYONE BELIEVE ATL WAS REALLY IN THE AJ MIX FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A FAN APPEASEMENT? FYI, OUTSIDE NYC TEAMS ARE SITTING ON THEIR WALLETS PROTECTING PROFITS AS BEST THEY CAN. FOR MANY OF THEM, WITHOUT THE MONEY FLOWING OUT OF NY IN REVENUE SHARING & YANKEE LUXURY TAXES. THE FUTURE WOULD BE VERY BLEAK.
METS62FAN,
Boras already made clear he had better offers almost immediately after getting the Mets offer. When asked by reporters about it he said, “yes I got the Mets offer, but I got other offers too”.
Do you have any links that say the Mets have the highest offer?
Also, while Lowe immediately rejected the Mets first offer, he has NOT rejected the other offers he has received.
Well if this isn’t a nice way to start 2009!
Lowe hasn’t gotten any other offers Boras is a liar, he uses this tactic all the time.
JOE, BESIDES DRIVING THAT SATURN, U MUST BE BILLY MAYS’ BEST CUSTOMER. YOU CERTAINLY SHOULDN’T BELIEVE EVERY STATEMENT ANY SALESMAN DELIVERS; ESP ONE NAMED BORAS. UNTIL AN ACTUAL COMPETITIVE BID IS REC’D ONE DOESN’T EXIST. BECAUSE IT’S BORAS, I KNOW METS’ OFFER IS AN ORPHAN & AS SUCH IS THE HIGHEST & LOWEST REC’D. AS U CAN SEE, BORAS WOULD CERTAINLY PASS A LIE DETECTOR SAYING HE RECEIVED THE METS OFFER & IT WAS THE LOWEST OFFER FOR LOWE HE’S GOTTEN. IN CASE U R A NEOPHANT IN BORAS’ DEALINGS, HIS NAME IS CONSIDERED SYNONAMOUS WITH THE TERM “MYSTERY TEAM” WHILE, THIS WAS A USEFUL PLOY IN ALL YRS NOT INFLUENCED BY COLLUSION, THE ECONOMY’S EFFECT ON SM MKT CLUBS’ OWNERSHIP’S OTHER HOLDINGS HAS CONSTRICTED THE LUXURY ITEM MKTPLACE, JUST LIKE THERE ARE STILL MANY WALMART SHOPPERS WITH THE BIGGEST DROPOFF FOUND AT TIFFANY, BARNEY,ETC.